Here’s a blog post analysing the HorseRaceBase RapidView statistics for the 8:30 Chepstow race, highlighting the strongest contender and potential dangers:

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Tonight, we’re focusing on the 8:30 Chepstow Racing League 21 Handicap (GBBPlus Race). This Class 3 race, with a substantial prize of £49,185 (first place takes £25,770), is set to be run over a distance of 1 mile 2 furlongs (2200 yards) on Good going. With 12 runners aged 3yo+, and an average Official Rating (OR) of 80.33, this race promises to be competitive.

Using the HorseRaceBase RapidView data, which highlights standout performers in various categories, we’ve delved into the stats to unearth the top contenders.

The Front Runner: Our Top Pick Based on HorseRaceBase Insights

After a thorough review of the HorseRaceBase data, City Of Delight emerges as a particularly strong contender for tonight’s race. This horse shows exceptional performance across several key metrics directly relevant to tonight’s conditions:

• Distance Specialist: City Of Delight boasts an impressive 67% win rate over today’s race distance, with 4 wins from 6 runs, and an 83% place rate. When considering a broader distance range (±1f), its record improves even further to a 75% win rate (6 wins from 8 runs).
• Optimal Going: On today’s Good going conditions, City Of Delight has a 75% win rate from 4 runs (3 wins).
• Overall Form: It has a 40% career win rate (6 wins from 15 runs), a 60% win rate over its last 10 races, and a 57% win rate over the last year.
• Jockey/Trainer Combination: The pairing of David Probert and David Menuisier is highlighted as a top performer combination with a 25% win rate. David Probert himself is a top jockey over this distance and class combined, with a 21% win rate.
• Breeding Pedigree: City Of Delight’s stallion, City Of Light (USA), is a top performer for offspring over the last 5 years (25% win rate), over today’s distance (57% win rate), on today’s ground conditions (43% win rate), and in this race type (30% win rate). Furthermore, its dam, Jing (USA), is a top performer for offspring over the last 5 years (40% win rate), over today’s distance (67% win rate), and in this race type (50% win rate). The dam sire, Sky Mesa (USA), also shows top performance over today’s race distance (27% win rate) and on today’s ground conditions (38% win rate).

The Dangers: Horses That Could Challenge for the Win

While City Of Delight stands out, several other runners present significant threats based on their specialised stats:

• Fantasy Believer:
  • Track Performance: This horse has a 33% win rate at Chepstow (1 win from 3 runs).
  • Class & Distance/Class Specialist: Fantasy Believer performs well in this class of race with a 20% win rate (4 wins from 20 runs) and has a strong 33% win rate when combining this distance and class (2 wins from 6 runs).
  • Jockey Connection: When ridden by Saffie Osborne, Fantasy Believer has a superb 50% win rate (5 wins from 10 runs). Saffie Osborne is also a top jockey at this track (37% win rate) and at this specific track/distance combination (20% win rate).
  • Dam Sire Prowess: Its dam sire, Lawman (FR), has exceptional records at this track (29% win rate), in this race type at this track (44% win rate), and at this track and distance combined (33% win rate).
• Crowd Quake:
  • Recent Form: Crowd Quake shows outstanding recent form, with a 67% win rate over its last 3 races (2 wins from 3 runs), a 60% win rate over its last 5 races, and an impressive 67% win rate over the last 90 days (4 wins from 6 runs).
  • Race Type Performance: In this specific type of race, Crowd Quake has a strong 63% win rate (5 wins from 8 runs).
  • Favourite Status: When starting as the favourite, Crowd Quake has an excellent 75% win rate.
  • Trainer & Stallion: Its trainer, S C Williams, is a top performer over this distance with a 19% win rate. Its stallion, Night Of Thunder (IRE), is a top performer at today’s racecourse, with a 38% win rate.

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