Here is a data-driven preview and deep dive into the 16:30 Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap) at Ascot, drawing on the information in the sources provided: Timeform, The Racing Post and Horseracebase RapidView.

16:30 Ascot – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap) (Class 2)

Race Overview:
This Class 2 handicap race, held over 1 mile (7f 213y) on a round course, features horses aged 4yo and upwards. The going is Good to Firm (Good in places). The race offers a significant prize, with £49,180.00 to the winner out of a £100,000 guaranteed prize pool. The field consists of 10 declared runners, though 12 horses are detailed in the provided race data, including two reserves. Horses are rated between 0-105, with specific allowances for those rated above or below that band. The average official rating (OR) for the field is 95.25, with a maximum of 99 and minimum of 89.

Pace Forecast and Draw Bias:
The pace forecast for this race is Strong. Statistics from Ascot suggest that prominent racers are generally disadvantaged at this trip when there’s a strong end-to-end gallop, implying that those ridden patiently could hold an edge. This means the race is likely to favour late closers. There is no clear draw bias flagged for this course or race, with performance more likely to be dictated by running style and trip position rather than stall number.

Strongest Contender

ARISAIG (Estimated Tissue Odds: 9/2)
Timeform’s analyst verdict has a preference for Arisaig, noting she “ran a cracker at Sandown last month and remains nicely treated”. My previous analysis also highlighted her as the strongest contender, being best suited to the expected strong pace profile. She is a deep closer with a sharp turn of foot, making her perfectly suited for a likely pace collapse.

• Form & Analysis: A 4yo chestnut filly by Harry Angel, Arisaig is described as a “tall, lengthy filly” and a useful handicapper. She won twice in 2024, including at Goodwood. Her last outing on 5 July 2025 saw her finish a strong second of 12 at Sandown over 1m (Good to Firm), where she “faring best of those held up” and made up a lot of ground. Her Timeform Rating (TFR) for that performance was an impressive 108+, indicating significant ability. Her RPR for this race was 104. Her previous Ascot run in June, where she finished 14th of 23, can be “marked up” as she raced away from the main pack. She is typically “waited with,” a running style that aligns well with the strong pace forecast.
• Trainer & Jockey Stats: Her trainer, Charlie Johnston, has a 10% win rate (7 wins from 68 runs) in the last 14 days. Over today’s track and distance, Johnston has a 10% win rate (1 win from 10 runs) with a +£16 profit to a £1 level stake in the last 730 days, suggesting some proficiency. Jockey Robbie Dolan does not have recent win statistics available in the provided sources.
• Horse Performance Stats: In terms of HorseRaceBase performance, Arisaig has a 25% career win rate (4 wins from 16 runs) within plus/minus 1 furlong of today’s distance, yielding a +£12 profit.
• Breeding Stats: Her dam, Magic Nymph (IRE), shows strong progeny performance with a 23% win rate (6 wins from 26 runs) over the last 5 years, yielding a +£12 profit to a £1 level stake, and an impressive 24% win rate (4 wins from 17 runs) in this class. Magic Nymph’s offspring also have a 25% win rate over today’s race distance.
• Suitability Score (My Analysis): 8.5/10 – Well suited by track, trip, ground, and pace scenario, with recent sectional merit strong.

Main Dangers

URBAN LION (Estimated Tissue Odds: 5/1)
Urban Lion is considered a “proven and progressive” contender, having performed well recently. He is feared by Timeform and was a strong consideration in my previous analysis.

• Form & Analysis: A 4yo bay gelding by Zoustar, Urban Lion is a “tall gelding” and a useful handicapper. He demonstrated his quality by winning at Chelmsford in February and Sandown in June. His career-best performance came just four days after his Sandown win, where he finished a creditable fifth of 30 in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot despite being hampered. He stays up to 1¼m and acts on various ground types. His Timeform Rating (TFR) for the Royal Hunt Cup was 106+. While his form is solid, his natural tracking style “might be slightly blunted if the leaders overcook it” given the expected strong pace.
• Trainer & Jockey Stats: Trainer Jack Channon has a notable £49.28 profit to a £1 level stake when having one runner at a flat meeting. His horses show a 20% win rate (24 wins from 119 runs) over this distance in the last 730 days, contributing to a +£29 profit. Jack Channon also has an 18% win rate over this distance and class combined, with a +£18 profit. Jockey Hugh Bowman is noted for his “international big-race nous”, though specific recent win percentages are not available for him in the provided data.
• Horse Performance Stats: Urban Lion boasts a 33% career win rate (3 wins from 9 runs). Over the last 365 days, he has a 38% win rate (3 wins from 8 runs) with a positive return. His performance over today’s distance also shows a 38% win rate. In this class of race, he has a 33% win rate (1 win from 3 runs).
• Breeding Stats: His sire, Zoustar (AUS), has offspring with a 17% win rate (4 wins from 23 runs) at this track in this race type. His dam, Vive Ma Fille (GER), has offspring with a 33% win rate (3 wins from 9 runs) over today’s race distance.
• Suitability Score (My Analysis): 8.5/10 – Peak form, versatile, but style may not fully suit a burn-up.

TREASURE TIME (Estimated Tissue Odds: 6/1)
Treasure Time is identified as a progressive horse with a strong-finishing style, making him well-suited to a stiff test. He is considered a “dark” improver, particularly with the addition of cheekpieces.

• Form & Analysis: A 4yo bay gelding by Time Test, Treasure Time is a “sturdy gelding” and a useful handicapper. His best form came when “finishing strongly to lead close home at York” in August 2024. His recent run at Goodwood where he finished 14th of 16 can be “excusable” as he was in the “wrong part of the track”. He is fitted with cheekpieces, which could “sharpen focus”. He “remains with potential” and a stiff test like this should suit him.
• Trainer & Jockey Stats: His trainer, William Haggas, is noted as a “hot trainer” and has excellent stats: a 21% strike rate with horses running between 7f and 10f, and a 24% strike rate in mid-season. Over the last 7 days, Haggas has a 33% win rate (5 wins from 15 runs). In this race type over the last 730 days, Haggas holds a 24% win rate (135 wins from 570 runs) with a +£78 profit. Jockey Hollie Doyle also has solid recent figures, with an 11% win rate (2 wins from 19 runs) in the last 7 days.
• Horse Performance Stats: Treasure Time has a 50% win rate (2 wins from 4 runs) on today’s going or AW surface, with a +£13 profit. Historically, in August, he has a 33% win rate (1 win from 3 runs).
• Breeding Stats: His dam, Penny Drops, has offspring with a 21% win rate (19 wins from 91 runs) in this race type, showing a +£28 profit.
• Suitability Score (My Analysis): 8/10 – Excellent recent form, trainer stats positive, strong finisher, and cheekpieces are interesting.

MISS INFORMATION (Estimated Tissue Odds: 13/2)
Miss Information is a progressive mare with strong big-race credentials, having already won at Royal Ascot this season.

• Form & Analysis: A 4yo bay filly by Blue Point, Miss Information is described as a “compact filly” and a useful handicapper. She has progressed significantly as a 4yo, securing two big wins this summer. Notably, she won the Kensington Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot in June over the straight mile, proving herself a strong finisher on good to firm ground. Her TFR for that win was 105+. Her latest run in July where she finished sixth over 7f can be “forgiven,” as she “failed to quicken on a speed-favouring track”. This race’s 1m distance is considered “more her trip now”. She is best on good or quicker ground.
• Trainer & Jockey Stats: Her trainer, Andrew Balding, is labelled a “hot trainer” by Timeform. Balding has a 24% win rate (4 wins from 17 runs) in the last 7 days and a 21% win rate (15 wins from 73 runs) over this distance and class in the last 730 days, generating a +£7 profit. Jockey Katie Davis does not have recent win statistics in the provided sources.
• Horse Performance Stats: Miss Information has a 28% career win rate (5 wins from 18 runs). Over her last 5 races, she has a 40% win rate (2 wins from 5 runs). At today’s racecourse, she has an impressive 67% win rate (2 wins from 3 runs). In her last 3 runs in this class, she shows a 33% win rate (1 win from 3 runs).
• Breeding Stats: Her sire, Blue Point (IRE), has progeny with a 29% win rate (5 wins from 17 runs) over today’s course and distance. Her dam, Newsletter (IRE), has offspring with a 22% win rate (2 wins from 9 runs) in this class. Her dam sire, Sir Percy, has progeny with a 20% win rate (5 wins from 25 runs) at today’s racecourse, generating a +£29 profit.
• Suitability Score (My Analysis): 8/10 – Big Ascot win this summer, trip suits, but slight concern if pace is overly fierce as she prefers stalking runs.

EBT’S GUARD (Estimated Tissue Odds: 8/1)
Ebt’s Guard is a consistent and reliable performer, proven in big handicaps.

• Form & Analysis: A 4yo bay gelding by Cable Bay, Ebt’s Guard is a “good-topped gelding” and a useful handicapper. He won at Newbury in April. He arrives off an “excellent second” in the Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood last week, finishing a length behind Rhoscolyn. He handles all ground types and is considered reliable. His TFR for the Goodwood run was 107. However, he is now on a career-high mark, which might limit his scope compared to some rivals. His “mid-division” run style is tactically sound for this race.
• Trainer & Jockey Stats: His trainers, William Muir & Chris Grassick, show a 15% overall win rate (8 wins from 52 runs) in the last year with a +£19.95 profit. Over today’s track and distance, they have a 13% win rate (1 win from 8 runs). They also have a 14% win rate over this distance and class combined, with a +£17 profit. Jockey Per-Anders Graberg does not have significant recent win statistics.
• Horse Performance Stats: Ebt’s Guard has a 21% win rate (3 wins from 14 runs) over today’s race distance, with an impressive 71% place rate. He also has a 33% win rate (1 win from 3 runs) over today’s course and distance.
• Breeding Stats: His dam, Whims Of Desire, has offspring with a 20% win rate (3 wins from 15 runs) over today’s race distance, achieving a 67% place rate and a +£17 profit.
• Suitability Score (My Analysis): 7.5/10 – Consistent, reliable type with tactical fit, but perhaps less upside.

Interesting Outsiders

TALIS EVOLVERE (Estimated Tissue Odds: 12/1)
Talis Evolvere is an experienced handicapper who “thrives off a strong pace” and can be “delivered late from cover”. He is a solid each-way play.

• Form & Analysis: A 5yo bay gelding by Awtaad, Talis Evolvere is a “good-topped gelding” and a useful handicapper. He finished third at York in July and a creditable fifth at Ascot over 1m a fortnight ago. His overall turf form suggests others may have the edge, but he can be competitive in big handicaps when the gallop is strong. His run style allows him to finish well.
• Trainer & Jockey Stats: Trainer Richard Hannon has a 7% win rate overall in the last year. Jockey Suraj Narredu does not have specific recent stats.
• Breeding Stats: His sire, Awtaad (IRE), has a 19% win rate (8 wins from 42 runs) at today’s racecourse, with a notable +£48 profit.
• Suitability Score (My Analysis): 7/10 – Each-way player if tempo collapses, strong-finishing type.

GOLDEN MIND (Estimated Tissue Odds: 14/1)
Golden Mind has a good course record but his running style might be a disadvantage given the expected pace.

• Form & Analysis: A 4yo bay gelding by Galileo Gold, Golden Mind is a “lengthy gelding” and a useful handicapper. He ran “really well” when finishing fourth of 21 in the International Stakes at Ascot recently. He usually “races prominently,” which is a concern for this race’s pace setup. While solid at 7f, his stamina is “still to prove” over 1m, especially in a strongly run mile.
• Trainer & Jockey Stats: Trainer Richard Fahey has a 7% win rate (4 wins from 56 runs) in the last 14 days, with a +£4.88 profit. Jockey Karis Teetan does not have specific recent stats.
• Breeding Stats: His dam, Sagely (IRE), has an impressive 54% win rate (7 wins from 13 runs) on today’s ground conditions, yielding a +£23 profit. Her offspring also have a 33% win rate (3 wins from 9 runs) at today’s racecourse. His dam sire, Frozen Power (IRE), shows a 23% win rate (13 wins from 56 runs) on today’s ground, with a +£34 profit.
• Suitability Score (My Analysis): 6.5/10 – Solid form, but running style doesn’t match the setup.

TWO TEMPTING (Estimated Tissue Odds: 16/1)
Two Tempting is noted as being “out of form” since his Chester win and is “likely outpaced mid-race”.

• Form & Analysis: A 6yo chestnut gelding by New Bay, Two Tempting is a “lengthy gelding” and a useful handicapper. He won over the straight mile at Ascot in May 2024 and added another win at Chester in May. However, his recent form shows he hasn’t been performing well enough to suggest he’ll be a contender here.
• Trainer & Jockey Stats: Trainer Jonathan Portman has an 8% win rate in the last 14 days. Jockey Ryusei Sakai has a 50% win rate (2 wins from 4 runs) in the last 14 days, with a +£7.60 profit.
• Breeding Stats: His sire, New Bay, has progeny with a 30% win rate (7 wins from 23 runs) over today’s course and distance, yielding a significant +£72 profit. His dam sire, Desert Style (IRE), has a 13% win rate (7 wins from 55 runs) in this class.
• Suitability Score (My Analysis): 6/10 – Needs best form and likely outpaced mid-race.

CERULEAN BAY (Estimated Tissue Odds: 20/1+)
Cerulean Bay’s recent form suggests he needs a significant step up to be competitive here.

• Form & Analysis: A 4yo bay gelding by New Bay, Cerulean Bay is a “good-topped gelding” and a useful handicapper. While he stays 1m and has run well over course and distance before (albeit off a lower mark), he was “well held on this track last week”. His TFR for his last Ascot run was 76.
• Trainer & Jockey Stats: Trainer David O’Meara has an 11% win rate in the last 14 days. Jockey Mirai Iwata has no wins from 2 runs in the last 14 days.
• Suitability Score (My Analysis): 5.5/10 – Signs of life last time but more needed.

BRAVE EMPEROR (Estimated Tissue Odds: 20/1+)
Brave Emperor is a classy performer at his best, but he has been well below peak form this year.

• Form & Analysis: A 5yo bay gelding by Sioux Nation, Brave Emperor is a “well-made gelding” and a useful performer. He won multiple Group races abroad in 2024. However, he has “yet to fully fire this season,” being well held in a handicap at Hamilton last time. He has been dropped 5lb but has “much to prove”.
• Trainer & Jockey Stats: Trainer Archie Watson has a 14% win rate (4 wins from 29 runs) in the last 14 days, with a +£1.48 profit. Jockey Dario Di Tocco does not have specific recent stats.
• Horse Performance Stats: Brave Emperor has a 36% career win rate (4 wins from 11 runs) and a 67% win rate (2 wins from 3 runs) for horses in his “days since last ran” bracket, with a 100% place rate in that category.
• Suitability Score (My Analysis): 5/10 – Classy at best but out of form.

Reserves (Not in the main declared field of 10 but detailed in sources):

• LEADMAN (Estimated Tissue Odds: 20/1+): A 5yo by Kingman, Leadman is a “sturdy gelding” and a useful handicapper. He recently won over 7f at Newmarket. His last run at Goodwood is “best excused” as he met trouble. He is a reserve for this race.
• SILENT AGE (Estimated Tissue Odds: 20/1+): A 4yo by Dubawi, Silent Age is a “sturdy gelding” and a useful handicapper. He won at Sandown in June and Wolverhampton recently, showing he’s “better than ever”. He is a reserve for this race. He usually races prominently but can be “sometimes slowly away”. He faces much tougher opposition here.

Overall Summary & Smart Play

This year’s Shergar Cup Mile looks set up for a strong-finishing type, with a genuine pace collapse likely due to multiple pace-forcers. This puts an emphasis on those ridden quietly and delivered late.

• Win: ARISAIG – She is best suited to the expected pace profile, is in good form, and her recent Sandown second is particularly strong on sectional merit. She remains well treated.
• Each-Way Saver: TALIS EVOLVERE – An experienced handicapper who thrives off a strong pace and can swoop for a place late if the front-runners overdo it.

Estimated Tissue Odds (My Assessment):

• Arisaig – 9/2
• Urban Lion – 5/1
• Treasure Time – 6/1
• Miss Information – 13/2
• Ebt’s Guard – 8/1
• Talis Evolvere – 12/1
• Golden Mind – 14/1
• Two Tempting – 16/1
• Others (including reserves) – 20/1+