Here are the data-driven race previews, presented in race-time order, including detailed information on each runner, estimated tissue odds, and insights into the top contenders and main dangers.
Beverley 4:15 – Jill Willows Handicap
This is a Class 4 handicap race run over 7f96y on Good to Firm ground, featuring 6 runners. The Beverley 7½f on fast ground heavily favours low draws and pace on the rail, with Stall 1 historically winning approximately 25–30% of small-field races here. The small field size amplifies the draw and early speed bias.
- Runner-by-Runner Analysis:
- Bell Shot (Draw 1, OR 79): Has 7 wins from 42 starts, including 2/2 C&D wins with a best RPR of 82. Its best form is on good/good-to-soft ground, though it has placed often on Good to Firm. It has the perfect inside draw to grab the lead and dictate fractions. It’s in form with 2 wins from its last 4, including a Newmarket win 12 days ago. While up 4lb and its last Class 4 turf win before Newmarket was in 2022, it is considered a strong front-running track specialist.
- Triggerman (Draw 2, OR 69): Holds a record of 1 win from 16 starts but 4 turf seconds, peaking at an RPR of 82. It has placed 4 times on G/F ground and was 2nd over C&D last time out, beaten by a short head. It can sit just off Bell Shot, and a visor seemed to help last time. Its win record is poor, and it can idle in front. Considered a clear danger if able to pounce late.
- Criminal Shore (Draw 3, OR 77): Is lightly raced with 1 win from 8 starts, an RPR of 80, having won a 1m Ripon race in April. It performs best on good ground, with fair G/F form. It’s a handy stalker with a good draw to track the pace. It has no Beverley form, and its best runs were over 1m. It is unexposed and could progress into this grade.
- Leap Day (Draw 5, OR 66): Record of 1 win from 23 starts with multiple places at 7f; peak TS 77, RPR 85. It is suited by a strong pace and needs leaders to overcook it. Likely to run into the frame but considered hard to win with.
- Yaajooz (Draw 6, OR 74): Has 1 win from 14 starts and is consistent at 1m; peak RPR 83. It performs better over further and has a wide draw, likely to drop in. It holds place claims if the race falls apart, but the draw is a significant negative.
- Highfield Sunshine (Draw 4, OR 71): Is winless from 7 starts, having placed in maidens/handicaps; peak RPR 77. Its best form is on good ground. Needs improvement to trouble proven handicappers. Has outside claims but is more likely in weaker fillies’ races.
- Estimated Tissue Odds:
- Bell Shot: 9/4
- Triggerman: 3/1
- Criminal Shore: 9/2
- Leap Day: 7/1
- Yaajooz: 8/1
- Highfield Sunshine: 14/1
- Top Contender + Main Dangers:
- Top Contender: Bell Shot – due to its pace, draw, and track specialisation, as well as a very high strike rate at the C&D in small fields.
- Main Dangers: Triggerman (who almost stole the C&D race last time and has a perfect draw to repeat that performance) and Criminal Shore (a progressive 3yo with a favourable stalking spot behind the leaders, suggesting potential to improve past more exposed rivals).
Salisbury 4:30 – Upavon Fillies’ Stakes
This is a Listed race covering 1m1f201y on Good to Firm turf. Historically, 3yos have a strong record, benefiting from an 8lb weight-for-age (WFA) allowance against older mares. Pace-honest renewals tend to favour strong stayers at 1m2f.
- Runner-by-Runner Analysis:
- Revoir (3yo): Boasts a peak RPR of 113 and TS of 99. Benefits from an 8lb 3yo allowance. She was 2nd in Newbury Listed, 6th in the Oaks, and 5th at York Listed (1L ahead of Ambiente Amigo). Has a strong stamina base and has run to 110+ in 3 of 4 starts. Considered still improving, top-rated in the field, with a trainer in form. Needs the pace to be honest, which is forecast.
- Wujjood (3yo): Has a peak RPR of 104 and TS of 84. She is a front-running novice winner and secured a solid 2nd in a Newbury novice. Her yard is flying, with a 36% win rate in the past fortnight. She could improve past her rating of 104, and her pedigree suggests Listed class. May face pace pressure and is untested in a strongly run race.
- Azaniya (3yo): Achieved a peak RPR of 107 and TS of 77. She has back-to-back wins (Newmarket novice G/F; Windsor handicap soft). She is unexposed, tough in a finish, and proven on contrasting ground. This is her first time in Listed class, and her best RPR was on soft ground.
- Ambiente Amigo (4yo): With a peak RPR of 109 and TS of 99. She won Nottingham Listed (G/F, 1m2f) in April and was 1L behind Revoir at York. She is battle-hardened and runs consistently in the 105–109 range. She carries a 3lb penalty, and giving weight to in-form 3yos is statistically tough in this race.
- Rose Prick (4yo): Has a peak RPR of 109 and TS of 79. She was 3rd behind Ambiente Amigo at Nottingham and is reliable at placing in Listed events. She is a consistent performer who handles the trip and ground. However, she is winless since being a 2yo and often finds one or two rivals too good.
- Elsie’s Ruan, Miss Justice, Sea Just In Time, Nanino Niyati: These runners are considered a few pounds short of the standard required to win, though one could potentially secure minor black type with a perfect trip.
- Estimated Tissue Odds:
- Revoir: 9/4
- Wujjood: 9/2
- Azaniya: 5/1
- Ambiente Amigo: 15/2
- Rose Prick: 11/1
- Miss Justice: 16/1
- Elsie’s Ruan: 20/1
- Sea Just In Time: 33/1
- Nanino Niyati: 50/1
- Top Contender + Main Dangers:
- Top Contender: Revoir – based on her peak RPR and TS numbers, consistent Listed form, WFA pull, and a pace scenario expected to allow her stamina to kick in late.
- Main Dangers: Wujjood (who is unexposed and from a yard in hot form, suggesting potential for improvement if able to dictate or sit handy without being softened up) and Azaniya (who is a strong candidate for trifecta and combination forecasts).
Beverley 4:45 – Porsche Cayenne Handicap
This is a Class 5 handicap race for 3yo+ horses, run over 1m1f207y. A moderate tempo is anticipated, which is likely to benefit horses positioned close to the pace. The draw bias for Beverley 1m2f on good to firm ground typically favours low-to-middle draws with a prominent position.
- Runner-by-Runner Analysis:
- Time Tells All (Draw 3, OR 68): Won C&D two starts back (good to firm) in a race that has worked out well; latest Pontefract 3rd came despite pulling in a slow-run race. With a peak RPR of 83 and consistent 72–82 range at this trip, it is top-rated in this field. Proven at track/trip, drawn to stalk leaders, and versatile in pace scenarios. Needs to settle early if the gallop is steady. Considered the benchmark horse for its ratings and conditions fit.
- Noss Mayo (Draw 6, OR 60): His best effort was a close 3rd at Ripon (1m2f, good) on handicap debut, where he travelled keenly but stayed well. His RPR of 69 (latest) is a career high, and he is lightly raced. An unexposed 3yo with scope to improve again at this trip. His widest draw means he may need luck to slot in early. He is considered the main threat to the favourite if he gets a good position.
- Anjo Bonita (Draw 5, OR 67): Was runner-up over 1m at Pontefract latest; her Carlisle 1m1f soft run was also solid. Her Beverley record is 0/2. She has a peak RPR of 85, but her trip record at 1m2f is 1/12. She is in form and experienced in small fields. This stiff C&D on Good to Firm could stretch her stamina late. Considered a place player, needing things to fall perfectly for a win.
- Balayaged (Draw 1, OR 64): Has been solid at 7f–1m but is unproven over 1m2f. He has a perfect inside draw and can sit handy. However, there are stamina doubts, and he is winless in 7 starts. Could pinch a place if the trip suits.
- Snapcracklepop (Draw 2, OR 62): Was runner-up at Pontefract (1m2f) in June but has had stalls issues since. He has a peak RPR of 78 but is inconsistent. He has a low draw and is capable of leading. He is highly unreliable and poses a refusal risk. Considered only for the brave, possibly a back-to-lay type if behaving.
- Bebside (Draw 4, OR 52): Performs best on AW; her turf form has been poor this season, and she was tailed off latest. Her turf peak RPR is 74, but recent runs are mostly in the 50s. She can race prominently, and the trip is okay. However, she is 0/13 and requires a big form turnaround. Considered an outsider with little appeal.
- Estimated Tissue Odds:
- Time Tells All: 9/4
- Noss Mayo: 3/1
- Anjo Bonita: 11/2
- Balayaged: 11/1
- Snapcracklepop: 13/1
- Bebside: 50/1
- Top Contender + Main Dangers:
- Top Contender: Time Tells All – highlighted for its proven C&D form, top ratings, and ideal tactical position from stall 3.
- Main Danger: Noss Mayo – an unexposed improver with a strong chance if able to settle early despite a wide draw.
Gowran Park 6:05 – Castleacre Insurance Handicap
This is a 7f handicap for 3yo+ horses featuring 6 runners with a prize of €22k. The going is Good, and no surface bias is expected. There is a slight inside draw edge for 7f small fields at Gowran, favouring stalls 1–3 for better trip efficiency. Small-field tactics will be key.
- Runner-by-Runner Analysis:
- Shakazia (Draw 3, OR 89): A progressive 3yo filly with 1 win (Fairyhouse maiden) and two strong seconds. She has the best draw for a prominent style, is open to 5–7lb improvement, and is a proven 7f performer. Her maiden form isn’t deep, but her upside is clear. Expected to get a perfect stalk-and-pounce run and her profile screams “ready-made handicap debut winner”.
- Exquisite Acclaim (Draw 1, OR 81): With 51 starts and 7 wins (6 AW, 1 turf), her only turf win came in this race last year off 84, now 81. She is back to a winning mark, is a C&D winner, and the rail draw is ideal for a smother ride. Her turf win rate is low at 3.6% (1/28), and her last two runs were sub-par. Considered laid out for this race and has a big chance if the pace is honest.
- Midnight Strike (Draw 2, OR 93): A Juvenile G3 placer; his Naas 7f run last time (RPR 96) showed stamina is borderline but manageable if pace is steady. He has a low draw and strong late sectionals in his last two starts. He is 0/2 beyond 6f and unproven in battle-hardened handicaps. Considered dangerous if the race doesn’t become a test.
- Quadruple (Draw 6, OR 95): Won a Curragh 7f handicap in June (RPR 97); first-time cheekpieces there; now +9lb. She has a peak RPR this season and a high strike rate for this trip (33%). However, she has the widest draw, will be forced to work early, and is giving weight all around. She is a contender if she gets across without burning petrol.
- Chicago Fireball (Draw 4, OR 85): His RPR peak is 105 (1m win); he has placed twice at 7f in handicaps. He handles the track and has strong numbers in big-field premiums. He is 0/11 at 7f and tends to need a gallop collapse to win. Considered a place chance only.
- Perfect Judgement (Draw 5, OR 85): An AW specialist with 4 wins; 1/15 on turf. He performs best on good ground and has a late kick if the race implodes. His turf ratings are below standard for this race. Considered a low-percentage win prospect.
- Estimated Tissue Odds:
- Shakazia: 2/1
- Exquisite Acclaim: 3/1
- Midnight Strike: 4/1
- Quadruple: 5/1
- Chicago Fireball: 8/1
- Perfect Judgement: 14/1
- Top Contender + Main Dangers:
- Top Contender: Shakazia – described as progressive, well-drawn, benefiting from WFA allowance, and possessing tactical speed; its profile suggests a “ready-made handicap debut winner”.
- Main Dangers: Exquisite Acclaim (making a C&D repeat bid off 3lb lower, with the inside trip saving lengths in a small-field tactical affair) and Midnight Strike (possesses the potential to improve at 7f with a soft lead to track, and is considered a good trade angle in-running if the pace is modest).
Gowran Park 6:35 – Hurry Harriet Stakes
This is a Listed race for Fillies & Mares, covering 1m1f100y with a €55,000 prize. The going is Good, which is ideal for most runners. Historically, 3yos receive an 8lb WFA allowance from older mares and have dominated this race, winning 8 of the last 10 renewals. A turn of foot on good ground is crucial.
- Runner-by-Runner Analysis:
- Naomi Lapaglia (3yo): Boasts an RPR of 112 (adj) and TS of 97. She has best recent Group form in the field (3rd in G2, 3rd in G3). She gets an 8lb WFA pull from Madam Celeste, and the ground/trip are perfect for her. Her last run was poor due to reported heat stress, so she needs to bounce back. On adjusted figures and WFA, she sets the standard.
- Madam Celeste (4yo): With an RPR of 112 and TS of 88. She is a proven C&D Listed winner from May. A hard battler, she stays well. However, she is conceding 8lb to improving 3yos. She is a reliable benchmark and can win if the 3yos underperform.
- Mojave River (3yo): Has an RPR of 100 and TS of 61. She won Listed at Cork last time, boosting her confidence. She runs in first-time cheekpieces, a clear sign of intent. She needs to improve to match the top two contenders.
- Continuite (3yo): Possesses an RPR of 98 and TS of 48. She is unexposed and could control the pace, being proven C&D. This is a big class leap from her maiden race.
- Tarima (3yo): A half-sister to Group 1 winners Tahiyra & Tarnawa, indicating a strong pedigree. She had an excuse on soft ground last time. However, she has been absent since May, raising fitness questions.
- Easy Mover, Darzina, Soft Winds, Dawn Spirit, Sweet Chariot, Dancing Teapot: These runners are listed in the estimated tissue odds but specific pertinent details were not provided in the source for a bullet point analysis.
- Estimated Tissue Book:
- Naomi Lapaglia: 7/2
- Madam Celeste: 4/1
- Mojave River: 6/1
- Continuite: 8/1
- Tarima: 8/1
- Easy Mover: 12/1
- Darzina: 14/1
- Soft Winds: 16/1
- Dawn Spirit: 20/1
- Sweet Chariot: 25/1
- Dancing Teapot: 50/1
- Top Contender + Main Dangers:
- Top Contender: Naomi Lapaglia – identified as having a clear form edge with a WFA advantage, with her last run being forgivable given the reported heat stress issue.
- Main Dangers: Madam Celeste (a reliable yardstick who can capitalise if Naomi is not performing at 100%) and Continuite (a dark horse who could receive tactical favours; if she leads unchallenged, an in-running price collapse is expected).
Gowran Park 7:05 – McEnery Cup Handicap
This handicap race is run in a small field over 12f+ on good ground, where stamina and tactical speed are considered crucial factors.
- Runner-by-Runner Analysis:
- War Rooms (OR 96): Possesses a class edge with Dante 3rd, Listed/Group 2 form. He has high-class back form, a big run at Ascot 12f this summer, and track experience. His lifetime record is 1 win from 10 starts, and he concedes weight to all. He is considered a big danger if controlling the pace.
- Fleetfoot (OR 94): Achieved a Curragh 12f win in June and a strong 4th in a Galway 18-runner 12f race. He needs the pace on and can flatten off if the run becomes tactical. He is proven at the trip, and multiple big-field placings suggest reliability. He is considered very solid and in-form.
- Saturn (OR 93): Won his seasonal return over 1m6f, and his pedigree suggests quality. However, he has had two very poor runs since, and while stamina is okay, a guaranteed bounce-back is not assured. He needs a revival to figure and is only playable at a price. His profile is risky.
- Soaring Monarch (OR 87): Capable of high figures when in form, and carries a light weight with a 7lb claim. He is winless since 2023 and relies on a strong pace. He holds place claims if they go hard.
- Gambino (OR 82): A C&D maiden winner on debut, he is unexposed. This race represents a huge class rise, and the stamina test is new. His only upside is surprise package potential, making him a speculative choice.
- Puturhandstogether (OR 82): A Fred Winter hurdle winner and Grade 1 placed, he is also a Flat C&D winner with a strong OR versus his ability. This is his first Flat run since 2024, so fitness off his hurdles campaign is key. His mark looks lenient, and he is proven course/trip. He is considered the leading contender.
- Boxing Great (OR 80): Lightly raced, he finished 2nd in both turf starts at 12–13f, showing an improving profile. This is his first handicap, and he is untested in deeper waters. He stays, handles the ground, and could get a tow into the race. He is considered a value Each-Way type.
- Estimated Tissue:
- Puturhandstogether: 5/2
- Fleetfoot: 3/1
- War Rooms: 4/1
- Boxing Great: 13/2
- Soaring Monarch: 10/1
- Gambino: 12/1
- Saturn: 14/1
- Top Contender + Main Dangers:
- Top Contender: Puturhandstogether – described as well-handicapped, possessing C&D form, and demonstrating class from jumps.
- Main Dangers: Fleetfoot (highlighted as being in-form and a consistent 12f operator) and Boxing Great (an unexposed improver who could surprise by finishing in the frame).
Kempton 7:45 – 1m Class 4 Handicap
This is a Class 4 handicap featuring 14 runners (3yo+ mixed) on Kempton Polytrack (Standard-Slow) over 1m. The mile round course has a short run to the first bend, so low/mid draws are favoured if the pace is not hot. The Kempton mile generally favours leaders or prominent rail-huggers in average pace scenarios.
- Runner-by-Runner Analysis:
- Maybe Not (Draw 9, 3yo): Has 1 win + 2nd in her last two runs (Chester & Newbury, both 7f). A step up in trip is considered ideal given her pedigree and finishing effort. She gets a 7lb WFA allowance against older horses, and her trainer has a 23% strike rate in the last fortnight. Draw 9 is not ideal, risking being forced 3-wide early. She is considered the best long-term horse in the field, capable of winning with a well-timed run if she tucks in.
- King Of Fury (Draw 3): Holds an AW record of 3 wins from 6 starts, including 2x C&D wins. He has a perfect draw (3) and a top jockey booking. He can lead or sit handy and is likely to get first run on main rivals. He is 5lb above his last winning mark and had a turf flop last time out. He is a major threat if securing the rail, with Oisin likely to dictate the pace.
- A War Eagle (Draw 6, 3yo): Is steadily improving; his Hamilton 2nd was franked by the winner’s next performance. He is a strong finisher at 8–9f; making his AW debut, but his sire’s progeny perform well on Polytrack. He needs a solid pace, as a tactical race could blunt him. He is a rock-solid danger with a good trip/pace map fit.
- Rey De La Batalla (Draw 8): Won C&D last time out with a front-running ride; a 4lb rise is considered fine. Draw 8 means he must cross over early, risking burning petrol. He is dangerous if settling in front without a fight.
- Loch Leven (Draw 13, 3yo): A maiden winner here (7f) and had a good AW handicap debut 2nd at Southwell. Her last run was forgivable due to a wide trip in a stronger race. Her wide draw (13) forces a drop-in ride, meaning she will need a pace collapse. She is an Each-Way contender at a price if a strong pace unfolds.
- First View: A triple C&D winner but has been winless since 2022.
- She’s A Warrior: A C&D winner, but has a poor draw and is inconsistent.
- Others (Kitaro Kich, Zoffandia, North View, Finsceal Luas, Purefoy, Equion, Emery Down): These runners need big form reversals to feature.
- Private Tissue Book:
- Maybe Not: 3.5 (5/2)
- A War Eagle: 5.5 (9/2)
- King Of Fury: 6.0 (5/1)
- Rey De La Batalla: 9.0 (8/1)
- Loch Leven: 11.0 (10/1)
- First View: 14.0
- She’s A Warrior: 16.0
- Others: 25.0+
- Top Contender + Main Dangers:
- Top Contender: Maybe Not – an unexposed filly with scope and a WFA edge, with the step up to 1m considered ideal (draw risk noted for stake adjustment).
- Co-Main Bet/Danger: King Of Fury – boasts a perfect draw, is a C&D specialist, and a tactical steal is possible.
- Main Danger: A War Eagle – a consistent improver expected to pounce late if the pace is solid.
Kempton 8:45 – London Stayers’ Series Qualifier
This is a Class 4 race for 3yo+ horses, run over 2m on Polytrack (Standard/Slow) with 6 runners. There is no obvious front-runner, creating potential for a tactical, steadily-run first mile that would favour prominent or handy types on this course and trip.
- Runner-by-Runner Analysis:
- Synergism (OR 78): Has 3 wins from her last 6 starts, including an emphatic C&D win last week, making her well-in under a 6lb penalty with a future rise pending. She is 2/3 on AW 1m6f+ and 3/6 in 6–11 runner fields, and is a C&D winner. She can sit handy or track the pace, ideal for a small field. She is likely 4–6lb ahead of her OR, making her a progressive stayer and the biggest improver in the field.
- Environment Amigo (OR 81): Has a record of 2 wins from 2 starts at Southwell over extreme trips, indicating a strong stamina base; he needed his Newcastle return over 1m4f. He is 2/3 over 2m on AW, though 0/2 on Polytrack (both over shorter trips). He performs best when ridden forward and allowed to wind up steadily. He is 9lb higher than his last win, and his Polytrack suitability remains a query. He is considered the main danger if the favourite underperforms.
- Triple Gee (OR 82, 3yo): An improving 3yo who won over 1m4f and shaped as though this trip could suit; making his AW debut. He is 1/3 in small fields and benefits from a 3yo weight allowance. He could track the leader from a low draw. His stamina is unproven, and he might travel well before flattening. He holds place claims and is a potential surprise package.
- Golden Rules (OR 87): A class performer at his best (RPR 100); he is a C&D winner but is lightly raced and fragile. He is 2/4 on Polytrack, including this C&D; however, he is 0/2 in 2025 with poor recent figures. He could dictate the pace if they go steady. Fitness doubts and long absences affect his reliability. He is dangerous if bouncing back, but speculative.
- Another Run (OR 74): An AW winner at 1m6f; however, he has been absent for 511 days, and his best RPR of 93 came on Tapeta. He is 0/5 in Class 4 and 0/2 on Polytrack at 2m+. He is only dangerous if fully wound up.
- Melakaz (OR 76): A former AW specialist with 5 wins, but his form is trending down, and his last two runs were poor. His 5/7 Polytrack wins came in lower grades. He needs a full revival to feature and is considered an outsider.
- Private Tissue:
- Synergism: 4/5
- Environment Amigo: 7/2
- Triple Gee: 8/1
- Golden Rules: 8/1
- Another Run: 20/1
- Melakaz: 33/1
- Top Contender + Main Dangers:
- Top Contender: Synergism – described as progressive, well-in under a penalty, C&D proven, and with the trainer/jockey in form.
- Main Dangers: Environment Amigo (fully effective at this trip, fitter for its last run, and capable of capitalising if the favourite underperforms) and Triple Gee (unexposed at the trip, benefits from a 3yo allowance, and his tactical position could see him in the frame).
Here are the data-driven race previews, ordered by their race times, including their estimated tissue odds and ChatGpt generated professional punter smart plays:
Beverley 4:15 – Jill Willows Handicap
This Class 4 race spans 7f96y on Good to Firm ground and features 6 runners. The Beverley 7½f on fast ground heavily favours low draws and pace on the rail, with Stall 1 historically winning approximately 25–30% of small-field races. The draw and early speed bias are amplified due to the small field size.
- Estimated Tissue Odds:
- Bell Shot: 9/4
- Triggerman: 3/1
- Criminal Shore: 9/2
- Leap Day: 7/1
- Yaajooz: 8/1
- Highfield Sunshine: 14/1
- Professional Punter Smart Plays:
- Main Win Bet: Bell Shot – due to its pace, draw, and track specialisation, as well as a very high strike rate at the C&D in small fields.
- Saver: Triggerman – nearly won the C&D race last time and has a perfect draw to repeat that performance.
- Value Each-Way (EW): Criminal Shore – a progressive 3yo with a favourable stalking spot behind the leaders, suggesting potential to improve past more exposed rivals.
- Forecast/Exacta: Bell Shot / Triggerman & Criminal Shore (small permutation).
- Lay-to-Place: Yaajooz – identified as having a wide draw, a trip that is on the sharp side, and a tactical disadvantage.
Salisbury 4:30 – Upavon Fillies’ Stakes
This Listed race covers 1m1f201y on Good to Firm turf. Historically, 3yos have a strong record, benefiting from an 8lb weight-for-age (WFA) allowance against older mares, and pace-honest renewals tend to favour strong stayers at 1m2f.
- Estimated Tissue Odds:
- Revoir: 9/4
- Wujjood: 9/2
- Azaniya: 5/1
- Ambiente Amigo: 15/2
- Rose Prick: 11/1
- Miss Justice: 16/1
- Elsie’s Ruan: 20/1
- Sea Just In Time: 33/1
- Nanino Niyati: 50/1
- Professional Punter Smart Play:
- Main Bet: Revoir – based on peak RPR and TS numbers, consistent Listed form, WFA pull, and a pace scenario expected to allow her stamina to kick in late.
- Saver/Value Cover: Wujjood – unexposed and from a yard in hot form, suggesting potential for improvement if able to dictate or sit handy without being softened up.
- Exotics: Revoir / Wujjood / Azaniya for trifecta and combination forecasts if betting exchanges offer value.
Beverley 4:45 – Porsche Cayenne Handicap
This Class 5 race for 3yo+ horses is run over 1m1f207y. The draw bias for Beverley 1m2f on good to firm ground typically favours low-to-middle draws with a prominent position. A moderate tempo is anticipated, which is likely to benefit horses positioned close to the pace.
- Estimated Tissue Odds:
- Time Tells All: 9/4
- Noss Mayo: 3/1
- Anjo Bonita: 11/2
- Balayaged: 11/1
- Snapcracklepop: 13/1
- Bebside: 50/1
- Pro Punter Smart Plays:
- Main Win Bet: Time Tells All – highlighted for its proven C&D form, top ratings, and ideal tactical position from stall 3.
- Value Bet / Cover: Noss Mayo – an unexposed improver with a strong chance if able to settle early despite a wide draw.
- Lay Angle: Anjo Bonita in the win market if her odds are under 4/1, as the trip/track combination is not considered optimal.
- Back-to-Lay: Snapcracklepop – can trade shorter in-running from the front if calm in the prelims.
- Exacta: Time Tells All 1st / Noss Mayo 2nd (with a small reverse for cover).
Gowran Park 6:05 – Castleacre Insurance Handicap
This 7f handicap for 3yo+ horses features 6 runners with a prize of €22k. The going is Good, and no surface bias is expected. There is a slight inside draw edge for 7f small fields at Gowran, favouring stalls 1–3 for better trip efficiency. Small-field tactics will be key.
- Estimated Tissue Odds:
- Shakazia: 2/1
- Exquisite Acclaim: 3/1
- Midnight Strike: 4/1
- Quadruple: 5/1
- Chicago Fireball: 8/1
- Perfect Judgement: 14/1
- Pro Punter’s Smart Plays:
- Main Win Bet: Shakazia – described as progressive, well-drawn, benefiting from WFA allowance, and possessing tactical speed; its profile suggests a “ready-made handicap debut winner”.
- Value Each-Way: Exquisite Acclaim – making a C&D repeat bid off 3lb lower, with the inside trip saving lengths in a small-field tactical affair.
- Secondary Win Saver: Midnight Strike – possesses the potential to improve at 7f with a soft lead to track, and is considered a good trade angle in-running if the pace is modest.
- Lay in Win Market: Quadruple if her odds are under 3/1, due to a wide stall, pace pressure, and carrying weight.
Gowran Park 6:35 – Hurry Harriet Stakes
This Listed race for Fillies & Mares covers 1m1f100y with a €55,000 prize. The going is Good, which is ideal for most runners. 3yos receive an 8lb WFA allowance from older mares and have historically dominated this race, winning 8 of the last 10 renewals. A turn of foot on good ground is crucial.
- Estimated Tissue Book:
- Naomi Lapaglia: 7/2
- Madam Celeste: 4/1
- Mojave River: 6/1
- Continuite: 8/1
- Tarima: 8/1
- Easy Mover: 12/1
- Darzina: 14/1
- Soft Winds: 16/1
- Dawn Spirit: 20/1
- Sweet Chariot: 25/1
- Dancing Teapot: 50/1
- Professional Punter’s Smart Plays:
- Primary Win Bet: Naomi Lapaglia – identified as having a clear form edge with a WFA advantage, with her last run being forgivable given the reported heat stress issue.
- Saver: Madam Celeste – a reliable yardstick who can capitalise if Naomi is not performing at 100%.
- Value Each-Way / Back-to-Lay: Continuite – could receive tactical favours; if she leads unchallenged, an in-running price collapse is expected. The trading note suggests backing pre-race at 8/1+ and laying half the stake around 3.0–3.5 in-play if she gains an uncontested lead.
- Exacta/Quinella Angle: Naomi Lapaglia / Madam Celeste (as the class pair are expected to dominate), with a small cover bet of Naomi Lapaglia / Continuite.
- Verdict Highlights: The strongest contender is Naomi Lapaglia, the main danger is Madam Celeste, and the dark horse is Continuite.
Gowran Park 7:05 – McEnery Cup Handicap
This handicap race is run in a small field over 12f+ on good ground, where stamina and tactical speed are considered crucial factors.
- Estimated Tissue:
- Puturhandstogether: 5/2
- Fleetfoot: 3/1
- War Rooms: 4/1
- Boxing Great: 13/2
- Soaring Monarch: 10/1
- Gambino: 12/1
- Saturn: 14/1
- Pro Punter Plays:
- Main Win Bet: Puturhandstogether – described as well-handicapped, possessing C&D form, and demonstrating class from jumps.
- Saver: Fleetfoot – highlighted as being in-form and a consistent 12f operator.
- Value Each-Way: Boxing Great – an unexposed improver who could surprise by finishing in the frame.
- Lay/Pass: Saturn – advised against due to two recent poor runs and not having an obvious setup for the race.
Kempton 7:45 – 1m Class 4 Handicap
This Class 4 handicap features 14 runners (3yo+ mixed) on Kempton Polytrack (Standard-Slow) over 1m. The mile round course has a short run to the first bend, so low/mid draws are favoured if the pace is not hot. The Kempton mile generally favours leaders or prominent rail-huggers in average pace scenarios.
- Private Tissue Book:
- Maybe Not: 3.5 (5/2)
- A War Eagle: 5.5 (9/2)
- King Of Fury: 6.0 (5/1)
- Rey De La Batalla: 9.0 (8/1)
- Loch Leven: 11.0 (10/1)
- First View: 14.0
- She’s A Warrior: 16.0
- Others: 25.0+
- Pro Punter Smart Plays:
- Main Win Bet: Maybe Not – an unexposed filly with scope and a WFA edge, with the step up to 1m considered ideal. The draw risk is noted, suggesting stake adjustment.
- Co-Main Bet: King Of Fury – boasts a perfect draw, is a C&D specialist, and a tactical steal is possible.
- Saver: A War Eagle – a consistent improver expected to pounce late if the pace is solid.
- Value Each-Way: Loch Leven – despite a wide draw, her finishing style is suited if the pace collapses.
- Forecasts/Tricasts:
- Exacta: Maybe Not / King Of Fury.
- Trifecta: Add A War Eagle.
Kempton 8:45 – London Stayers’ Series Qualifier
This Class 4 race for 3yo+ horses is run over 2m on Polytrack (Standard/Slow) with 6 runners. There is no obvious front-runner, creating potential for a tactical, steadily-run first mile that would favour prominent or handy types on this course and trip.
- Private Tissue:
- Synergism: 4/5
- Environment Amigo: 7/2
- Triple Gee: 8/1
- Golden Rules: 8/1
- Another Run: 20/1
- Melakaz: 33/1
- Pro Punter Smart Plays:
- Main Win Bet: Synergism – described as progressive, well-in under a penalty, C&D proven, and with the trainer/jockey in form.
- Saver: Environment Amigo – fully effective at this trip, fitter for its last run, and capable of capitalising if the favourite underperforms.
- Each-Way Value: Triple Gee – unexposed at the trip, benefits from a 3yo allowance, and his tactical position could see him in the frame.
- Forecast/Exacta Play: Synergism → Environment Amigo / Triple Gee (with a small reverse saver with Environment Amigo).
- In-Running Angle: If Golden Rules achieves an easy lead and travels strongly into the straight, a small in-play saver at greater than 6.0 is suggested.
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