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5:00 Windsor – Racing League Race 22 Handicap

• Race Details: 5f 21y (5f), Class 4, 3yo+ 0-85, Good to Firm going, 13 runners, Stalls Centre.
• Total Race Value: £35,000, with £18,039 for the winner.

Data-driven Briefing

• Pace & Setup: There will be a solid early burn from stall 3 (Night On Earth), with backups from Clearpoint (8) and Rosenpur (10). Rocking Ends (7) and Miraculous (11) are expected to track. The best place to be is in the stalking lane from stalls 5-7. High-wide draws (11-13) will need a career best or significant luck.
• Ratings Foundation:
  • Night On Earth: Adjusted RPR ~96, TS 89, with plenty of historical 100+ RPRs at 5f, and he “owns this scenario”.
  • Rocking Ends: RPR 98, TS mid-70s on Good to Firm at 5f.
  • Moulin Booj: RPR 95, TS 86, and is in current good form.
• Progress Curve:
  • Woohoo: A red-hot filly with 4 wins from her last 6 starts. Her Chepstow 4th was a significant upgrade.
  • Miraculous: A lightly raced 3yo, who is more of a true 6f horse but has good pace.
• Placey Profile:
  • Reservardo: Consistent, but has only 1 win from 9 lifetime starts with 7 places, suggesting his ceiling may be a “placed horse”.
• Draw/Pace Map (Condensed):
  • Low (1-4): The Caltonian (1), Spirit Of Applause (2), Night On Earth (3), Reservardo (4) are in the best section of the track, with Night On Earth likely controlling the pace.
  • Middle (5-8): Brave Nation (5), Woohoo (6), Rocking Ends (7), Clearpoint (8) are in the “sweet stalking lane,” ideal for Woohoo and Rocking Ends.
  • High (9-13): Moulin Booj (9), Rosenpur (10), Miraculous (11), Our Planet (12), Nogo’s Dream (13) face a “headwind of geometry” and need extra quality.

Tissue Odds (my book ~104% O/R)

• Night On Earth: 4.6/1 (9/2)
• Woohoo: 6.5/1
• Rocking Ends: 7.5/1
• Reservardo: 8.5/1
• Moulin Booj: 9/1
• Miraculous: 10/1
• Brave Nation: 11/1
• Nogo’s Dream: 14/1
• Rosenpur: 16/1
• Spirit Of Applause: 18/1
• Our Planet: 22/1
• The Caltonian: 28/1
• Clearpoint: 40/1

Pro Punter’s Smart Plays

• Win Bet: Night On Earth – Ticking draw, pace, form, and course suitability, his 2nd on Sunday was better than it looked. Target price: ≥ 9/2.
• Each-way Selection (13 runners): Woohoo – A thriving filly, drawn to track the pace. She has 4 wins from her last 6, suggesting she is still ahead of the assessor. Target price: ≥ 6/1 win; for EW, want 4 places at 11/2+.
• Value Win/Cover: Rocking Ends – Back to his favoured C&D, his last run can be forgiven, and he’s on a fair mark. Bet ≥ 13/2.

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5:30 Windsor – Racing League Race 23 Handicap

• Race Details: 1m 2f (1m2f), Class 4, 3yo+ 0-80, Good to Firm going, 12 runners, Stalls Centre.
• Total Race Value: £35,000, with £18,039 for the winner.

Data-driven Briefing

• Pace & Setup: The likely leader is Shady Bay (draw 12). Handy stalkers in the best spot for Windsor 10f are Just An Hour (9) and Bamburgh (7). Outlandish (1) and Divine Legacy (2) have the potential for huge dream runs if they break cleanly from the rail. Closers like Spirit Of The Bay and Whathappensinvegas will need a strong pace to burn out the leaders.
• Who’s Best Suited to Today’s Conditions?
  • Just An Hour: Rock-solid C&D profile, races handy, Good to Firm is acceptable, and his mark is still workable.
  • Divine Legacy: Unexposed 3yo at the trip, first-time cheekpieces, and a plum draw to stalk and pounce.
  • Hinchinbrooke: His 12f AW flop can be forgiven; back at 10f with Weight-for-Age allowance, his classy maiden form suggests a win is in him.
  • Outlandish: Lightly raced, steps up to 10f with headgear and a good draw (1); he’s a strong improver angle at the price.
  • Bamburgh: Honest, but 0/4 on Good to Firm, so he’s likely to run well without being a strong win contender.
  • Shady Bay: Thriving, but steps up in class from a wide stall in a bigger field.

Tissue Odds (100% book)

• Just An Hour: 5.56 (≈ 9/2) – 18%
• Divine Legacy: 6.25 (≈ 11/2–6/1) – 16%
• Hinchinbrooke: 8.33 (≈ 15/2) – 12%
• Outlandish: 10.0 (≈ 9/1) – 10%
• Bamburgh: 11.11 (≈ 10/1) – 9%
• Whathappensinvegas: 12.5 (≈ 11/1) – 8%
• Afloat: 16.67 (≈ 16/1) – 6%
• Shady Bay: 16.67 (≈ 16/1) – 6%
• Narmar: 20.0 (20/1) – 5%
• Renesmee: 25.0 (25/1) – 4%
• Spirit Of The Bay: 33.3 (33/1) – 3%
• Yermanthere: 33.3 (33/1) – 3%

Pro Punter’s Smart Plays

• Win Bet: Just An Hour – His C&D form, tactical speed, and current figures make him the most likely winner off a handy sit.
• Each-way Selection (12 runners): Outlandish – He’s on double-digit fair odds, and his draw (1) + new trip + cheekpieces suggests significant upside, making him an ideal Each-Way bet with standard 1/5, 1–4 terms.
• Danger / Saver Note: Divine Legacy has the best “map” from stall 2.

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6:00 Windsor – Racing League Race 24 Handicap

• Race Details: 1m 31y (1m), Class 4, 3yo 0-80, Good to Firm going, 12 runners, Stalls Inside.
• Total Race Value: £35,000, with £18,039 for the winner.

Data-driven Briefing

• Pace & Setup: Radical Design (stall 1) and Nakaaha (stall 3) are expected to dominate the early fractions. Love Is The Law (9) and Gloriously Sassy (12) are expected to track. Zarathos (8) and Eazy On The Eye (8) are likely to be held up.
• Draw Bias: Low-to-mid draws are a plus over the mile at Windsor.
• Recent Figures (Best in Period, WT/Age Adj.):
  • Nakaaha: RPR 87, TS 79; with two wins since a hood was fitted, she is 4lb well-in under the penalty.
  • Radical Design: RPR 85, TS 76; a C&D winner 10 days ago, he is 2lb well-in, and well-berthed in stall 1.
  • Zarathos: RPR 88, TS 81; 0-11 lifetime, but a consistent placer on Good to Firm.
  • Love Is The Law: RPR 89, TS 76; boasts a rock-solid 1m turf profile and consistently hits the frame.
  • Kodi Fire: RPR 86, TS 67; he is 2-2 on Good to Firm and arrives off back-to-back wins.
• Shortlist (Why they win/lose):
  • Nakaaha: Progressive, boasts the top TS in the field, is well-in, and has an ideal draw/run style. Her main negative is stepping up in class from smaller-field wins.
  • Radical Design: A C&D winner who is also well-in; his stall 1 position could allow him to control fractions.
  • Kodi Fire: 2-2 on Good to Firm and thriving in July/August.
  • Zarathos: Needs a pace collapse and luck from a middle draw to win, but consistently places on Good to Firm.

Tissue Odds

• Nakaaha: 26.7% (11/4)
• Radical Design: 15.4% (9/2)
• Zarathos: 11% (9.1)
• Love Is The Law: 10% (10.0)
• Kodi Fire: 9% (11.1)
• Eazy On The Eye: 7% (14.3)
• Gloriously Sassy: 6% (16.7)
• Spirit Of Leros: 5% (20.0)
• Sky Advocate: 4% (25.0)
• Law Degree: 3% (33.3)
• Reddeef: 2% (50.0)
• It’s Only Fun: 1% (100.0)

Pro Punter’s Smart Plays

• Win Bet: Nakaaha – Progression + well-in + stall 3 + pace control makes her the top pick.
• Each-way Selection (12 runners): Kodi Fire – He is 2-2 on Good to Firm and thriving in July/August; his jockey’s claim keeps him competitive at this level.
• Saver/Exacta Angle: Nakaaha / Radical Design straight forecast if a pace-dominant outcome is expected.

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6:30 Windsor – Racing League Race 25 Handicap

• Race Details: 6f 12y (6f), Class 3, 3yo+ 0-95, Good to Firm going, 12 runners, Stalls Centre.
• Total Race Value: £50,000, with £25,770 for the winner.

Data-driven Briefing

• Pace & Setup: Expected to be a truly run race with plenty of forward types: Emperor Spirit, Rebel Path, Zoulu Chief, and Huscal are likely on or near the speed. King Of Light will be stalking, and closers include Montezuma, Inishfallen, and Treacherous.
• Set-up Bias: On Good to Firm over this sharp 6f, low/mid draws with cover into the bend are a plus. This strongly favours King Of Light (2) and Huscal (3).
• Condition Fit Snapshots:
  • King Of Light (Draw 2, OR 87): Benefits from a fresh stable lift, showed a 101 RPR last time over 6f, is 2lb “well-in,” and has an ideal draw to track the pace.
  • Huscal (Draw 3, OR 84): Travelled strongly at Doncaster over 7f last time but was unable to win off a slow pace. Returning to 6f with a proper gallop looks optimal for him; his profile “screams set-up horse”.
  • Blue Day (Draw 9, OR 86): Has solid 5f/6f figures on fast ground, but needs a clean run from a mid-high draw.
  • Montezuma (Draw 12, OR 72): An unexposed, fast horse, but his wide draw and free-going nature make him a “boom/bust” prospect.
  • Brosay (Draw 5, OR 86): Better at 6f than his recent 5f efforts; blinkers are retained, and he has a good Topspeed figure.
• Others: Other contenders “can win if everything falls” but have negatives related to draw, pace, or recent run-style.

Tissue Odds (100% book)

• King Of Light: 7/2 (22%)
• Huscal: 11/2 (16%)
• Blue Day: 6/1 (14%)
• Montezuma: 7/1 (12%)
• Brosay: 9/1 (10%)
• Emperor Spirit: 12/1 (7%)
• Inishfallen: 14/1 (6%)
• Zoulu Chief: 16/1 (5%)
• Rebel Path: 22/1 (4%)
• Bishop’s Crown: 50/1 (2%)
• Boxtel: 66/1 (1.5%)
• Treacherous: 200/1 (0.5%)

Pro Punter’s Smart Plays

• Win Bet: King Of Light – His progressive profile, ideal draw (2), and strong last-time RPR (101) make him the top pick. The 6f distance with pace looks “bang right,” and he’s 2lb ahead of the assessor.
• Each-way Selection (12 runners): Huscal – His form showed an upgrade from Doncaster, and the pace scenario looks perfect for him. He has a low draw (3) to sit just behind the leaders and has shown consistent sectionals with cover.

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7:00 Windsor – Racing League Race 26 Handicap

• Race Details: 1m 31y (1m), Class 3, 3yo+ 0-90, Good to Firm going, 9 runners, Stalls Inside.
• Total Race Value: £50,000, with £25,770 for the winner.

Data-driven Briefing

• Pace & Setup: The likely pace will be solid but not furious. Natural forward types are Urban Sprawl (2), Jimmy Speaking (3), and Mount King (7). The track bias at Windsor 1m (right-hand bend, short home straight) strongly favors those racing handy to midfield and kicking off the turn. This could disadvantage extreme hold-ups like Hickory if the pace slows mid-race.
• Beneficiaries on Paper: Jimmy Speaking, Zapphire, and Urban Sprawl are best positioned due to their draw and ability to stalk or control the pace.
• At Risk: Hickory, Mythical Guest, and Where’s Freddy are at risk if the pace crawls or stacks up, as they are happiest winding up late.
• Runner Snapshots (What actually moves the needle):
  • Jimmy Speaking (Draw 3, OR 79): The switch to 1m this summer has been successful, with an Ascot Good to Firm second and a Yarmouth win (only +2lb). His draw allows him to sit in the first wave.
  • Zapphire (Draw 4, OR 83): A consistent mare who was unlucky two starts back. Her stalking style from stall 4 is a perfect Windsor trip.
  • Hickory (Draw 5, OR 89): A classy closer whose best figures are on straight tracks with longer run-ins (Ascot). He needs a hard pace; Windsor’s short straight can blunt his kick.
  • Mythical Guest (Draw 1, OR 81): Has strong RPRs (101-104), but a rail draw for a hold-up horse is double-edged due to pocket risk.
  • Mount King (Draw 7, OR 72): A rock-solid 1m handicapper with a low weight who can sit 3rd/4th. He offers possible Each-Way value.

Tissue Odds (my book ~113%)

• Jimmy Speaking: 11/4 (26.7%)
• Zapphire: 9/2 (18.2%)
• Hickory: 11/2 (15.4%)
• Mythical Guest: 6/1 (14.3%)
• Where’s Freddy: 8/1 (11.1%)
• Chalk Mountain: 10/1 (9.1%)
• Mount King: 12/1 (7.7%)
• Urban Sprawl: 12/1 (7.7%)
• Spirit Of Albion: 33/1 (2.9%)

Pro Punter’s Smart Plays

• Win Bet: Jimmy Speaking – His form/pace/map combination, small rise in weight, and ability to handle the ground make him the top pick. Target price: ≥ 3.0 (2/1).
• Each-way Selection (9 runners, 1/5 1-2-3):
  • Primary: Zapphire EW at ≥ 6.0 (5/1) – Perfect map, reliable on Good to Firm.
  • Alt Value: Mount King EW at ≥ 13.0 (12/1) – Low weight, can track pace, in form, and is underestimated at his tissue odds.

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7:30 Windsor – Racing League Race 27 Handicap

• Race Details: 1m3½f (1m3f99y), Class 3, 3yo+ 0-95, Good to Firm going, 10 runners, Stalls Centre.
• Total Race Value: £50,000, with £25,770 for the winner.

Data-driven Briefing

• Pace & Setup: Ammes and Burj Zabeel are capable of going forward, and Night Breeze could press if he reverts to 2024 tactics. Secret Beach may be ridden prominently, while Lieber Power is expected to stalk. This setup points to an honest gallop, favoring prominent stalkers with a turn of foot.
• Key Profile Takeaways:
  • Ammes: An upward-curving 3yo with a peak RPR of 100 at the trip. He was unlucky when 2nd at Goodwood (traffic issues) and is well-drawn to track/pounce. His trip and surface are optimal, and the pace scenario is “sweet”.
  • Night Breeze: A course and race specialist (won this in 2024), arriving in peak summer form. He has 3 wins from 4 starts on Good to Firm and strong Windsor & RH track form. He carries a 5lb penalty for a recent Ascot win.
  • Lieber Power: A consistent placer with a peak RPR of 103. He was 2nd in this race last year and repeatedly hits 97-100 figures at 12f on fast ground. He maps to sit just behind the pace and finish strong, making him a “rock-solid place with win upside”.
  • Secret Beach: Dangerous if he can bounce back to his York Good to Firm winning form.
  • Miller Spirit: Best on softer ground, so his late kick might be blunted on fast ground.
  • Scottish Anthem: A high-class stayer over 1m6f+, so this drop back to 1m3½f is a major question mark.
  • Penzance: Has 0 wins from 10 starts on turf, making him an “avoid” unless his AW ability translates.

Tissue Odds (100% book)

• Ammes: 11/4 (26.7%)
• Night Breeze: 4/1 (20.0%)
• Lieber Power: 11/2 (15.4%)
• Secret Beach: 9/1 (10.0%)
• Miller Spirit: 12/1 (7.7%)
• First Officer: 16/1 (5.9%)
• Penzance: 25/1 (3.8%)
• Siempre Arturo: 25/1 (3.8%)
• Scottish Anthem: 28/1 (3.4%)
• Burj Zabeel: 33/1 (2.9%)

Pro Punter’s Smart Plays

• Win Bet: Ammes – A progressive 3yo with a peak RPR of 100 at the trip, he was unlucky when 2nd at Goodwood. His draw is ideal to track and pounce, and the trip and surface are optimal.
• Each-way Selection (10 runners): Lieber Power – He is weighted to go close, with a strong RPR ceiling of 103 and a good record of hitting high figures at 12f on fast ground. He maps to sit just behind the pace and finish strong.

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8:00 Windsor – Racing League Race 28 Handicap

• Race Details: 1m 2f (1m2f), Class 2, 3yo+, Good to Firm going, 10 runners, Stalls Centre.
• Total Race Value: £75,000, with £38,655 for the winner.

Data-driven Briefing

• Pace & Setup: Likely leaders are Mostawaa and Silent Age, with Mr Swivell able to sit right on them, and Andaleep handy. A strong/true pace is expected, which should favor midfield stalkers with a late kick like Parole d’Oro and Londoner. Andaleep is also likely to get a good tow into the race.
• Course Angles: Windsor 10f on fast ground is friendly to handy/mid runs from middle/low berths. The Kubler pair (Andaleep and Londoner) have rock-solid current figures.
• Data Pulses (Why they rate):
  • Parole d’Oro (3yo, OR 94): Showed a 103 RPR over 1m Good to Firm, with clear excuses in his last two runs. His profile suggests an improver at 10f with pace to target.
  • Londoner (OR 87, draw 1): Has a peak RPR of 111, with form that ties in tightly with Silent Age and Andaleep. He finishes hard and loves quick ground, and his low draw allows for efficient tracking along the rail.
  • Andaleep (Course Specialist): Boasts an impressive 10/36 record at 10f, 3/8 at Windsor, and peaks in August. Despite a top-weight, he is still running to 100+ RPRs.
  • Mr Swivell (Red-hot): Has 5 wins from his last 9 starts and a peak RPR of 107. Stamina is the only question back at 10f in a truly-run race.
  • Silent Age (Pace): A C&D winner on good ground, coming off a career best. A small rise of 2lb on faster turf is a minor challenge.
• Others: Claymore is classy but inconsistent; Auld Toon Loon needs a bounce-back; Financer is well-treated if he recaptures his York form; Mirabeau prefers softer ground; Mostawaa is a miler stretching his trip.

Tissue Odds (my book ~112%)

• Parole d’Oro: 4.8
• Londoner: 5.5
• Mr Swivell: 6.0
• Andaleep: 6.0
• Silent Age: 7.5
• Claymore: 13
• Auld Toon Loon: 17
• Financer: 21
• Mirabeau: 26
• Mostawaa: 34

Pro Punter’s Smart Plays

• Win Bet: Parole d’Oro – Unexposed profile + strong pace map + recent 103 RPR at 1m on Good to Firm. Target price: ≥5.0 (4/1+).
• Each-way Selection (10 runners, 3 places): Londoner – His draw (1) allows him to track the rail, he has consistently posted 100+ RPRs on fast ground, and his finishing splits have been excellent. Target price: ≥6.0 (11/2+) EW.
• Savers & Trades (Optional):
  • Tiny win saver on Mr Swivell (if they don’t go crazy early).
  • Lay Mostawaa late (if still in front 2f out, as his 10f turf strike rate is 0/11).
  • Andaleep for place market only if a safer, course-bias play is desired.