Race Briefing: Cork 7:22 – Give Thanks Stakes (Group 3)

This Group 3 race for three-year-old and older fillies covers a distance of 1m4f at Cork, offering a total prize value of €65,000, with €38,350 to the winner. Three-year-olds carry 8st 13lbs, while four-year-olds and older carry 9st 9lbs, with penalties for previous Group race winners. The going is described as Good.

Likely Pace Setup: The race features a relatively small field, suggesting a low likelihood of a strong gallop. Island Hopping is expected to be the natural pace-setter, potentially controlling the fractions from her low draw in stall 2, especially with cheekpieces on. Uluru and Chorus are likely to sit close to the lead, while Royal Entry, despite being capable of a strong finish, can be slow away and might settle mid-pack. Elizabeth Jane typically prefers to be held up and relies on a strong pace. The remaining runners are generally closers or mid-division types, posing little threat to the early pace. A controlled gallop, rather than a fiercely contested one, is anticipated, which would favour horses positioned on or near the lead with a good turn of foot.

Key Contenders:

• Island Hopping (3yo, 8-13)
  • Strengths: She holds the clear top RPR in the field (113) achieved in the Group 1 Irish Oaks where she finished third. As a three-year-old, she benefits significantly from the weight-for-age (WFA) allowance against older mares. Her tactical speed and stamina make her capable of dictating the pace from her low draw. Her jockey, Wayne Lordan, noted that she came home well and should be a Group filly for next year.
  • Risks: Her Irish Oaks performance might have been pace-flattered. She still needs to prove she can consistently put away seasoned older fillies.
• Elizabeth Jane (4yo, 9-9)
  • Strengths: She is a proven Group 1 performer, having finished fourth in last year’s Irish Oaks, and showed an excellent seasonal return by placing fourth in a Group 3 at the Curragh. Her trainer, D.K. Weld, has an excellent historical record in this race. She is a strong closer with a deadly late kick if the pace is even or strong.
  • Risks: This will be her first run back at 1m4f since the Irish Oaks. She may not be seen to her best effect on quicker ground, and she has never won at Cork.
• Uluru (4yo, 9-9)
  • Strengths: She showed marked improvement when stepped up to 1m4f, winning a Listed race at Limerick. She had legitimate excuses last time out when denied a clear run in a Group 3 at the Curragh. She possesses a stalk-and-pounce profile and is versatile on ground, sharpest at 1m4f+.
  • Risks: She has a mixed profile and needs to prove she can reproduce her peak performance consistently. She can also encounter traffic in running.
• Chorus (4yo, 9-9)
  • Strengths: She is a consistent Listed/Group 3 performer, notably finishing close third in a Chantilly Listed and third in a Haydock Group 3. Her trainer, William Haggas, is currently in excellent form, with a 39% strike rate over the last 14 days. She handles good ground well and the trip is perfect for her.
  • Risks: She needs to bounce back from an unfathomably poor run at Newmarket last time. Travel could also be a factor. She has a lower win strike rate (2/12) despite travelling well.
• Royal Entry (4yo, 9-9)
  • Strengths: She is a course and distance maiden winner. Her fifth-place finish in a Group 2 at Goodwood was solid, especially considering she lost ground at the start. Her trainer, P. Twomey, boasts a 37% strike rate this season. She is a strong finisher.
  • Risks: Her quirky starts could ruin her chances, as losing ground in a small tactical field is detrimental. Colin Keane, who rode her last time, switches to stablemate Elana Osario.

Others:

• Ameerat Jumaira (5yo, 9-9): Needs a career-best performance, and first-time cheekpieces need to bring significant improvement. She has shown capability at Cork, including a Listed second.
• Elana Osario (4yo, 9-9): A progressive handicapper, she would need a big leap in form to compete at this level.
• Calrissiana (3yo, 8-13): A Naas maiden winner, but has been safely held in Group/Listed company since and looks outclassed here.
• Medici Venus (3yo, 8-13): Has appeared regressive in recent high-level attempts and is hard to fancy in this grade.

Tissue Odds (Pro Estimate)

Based on the data and performance profiles, the estimated tissue odds (with an approximate 109% overround) are:

• Island Hopping: 9/4 (29–31%)
• Elizabeth Jane: 3/1 (24–26%)
• Uluru: 5/1 (16–18%)
• Chorus: 6/1 (13–14%)
• Royal Entry: 8/1 (10–11%)
• Ameerat Jumaira: 20/1
• Elana Osario: 25/1
• Calrissiana: 50/1
• Medici Venus: 66/1

Note: If Elizabeth Jane were to be a non-runner, her absence would likely upgrade Uluru and Chorus by 1-1.5 points in their odds, and the pace scenario would further skew in favour of Island Hopping.

Pro Punter Smart Plays

• Win Bet – Island Hopping
  • Bet if you can beat 2/1. Her significant weight-for-age allowance combined with her likely ability to dictate a controlled pace gives her the biggest leverage in this race. She is top-rated in the field.
• Value Danger – Uluru
  • Back/keep onside if 6/1 or greater. The market often underprices her at this 1m4f trip after her Limerick Listed win and her excuses last time. She has an ideal stalking draw to pounce late if the leader is pressured.
• Each-Way Selection (Only if 8+ runners hold) – Royal Entry
  • Acceptable at 8/1 or better. With the potential for 1/5 odds for 1-2-3 placings if 8 runners declared, Royal Entry is a strong contender for a place. She has won over this course and distance, is a resilient finisher, and often secures second or third places when she breaks cleanly.
  • (Note: The current field is 8 runners, so this each-way condition applies).
• Lay Angle/Underperformer – Ameerat Jumaira
  • Avoid betting on her under 16/1. She needs a significant turnaround in form against multiple higher-calibre competitors at this level.

In-Running Cues:

• If Island Hopping gets a free lead and the first mile is steady: Press Island Hopping’s position, but keep Uluru in mind as a live danger for a late pounce.
• If the race is properly run with pressure by halfway: Shift your equity towards Elizabeth Jane, as her late sectionals could win the day off an honest gallop. Chorus also becomes a strong place contender in this scenario.