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Beverley 3:47 – 5f Racing TV Club Day Handicap (Class 5)

This highly competitive 5f Class 5 Handicap at Beverley, valued at £8,650, features 10 runners. The race conditions are for horses aged 4yo+ rated 53-72 (also open to those rated 52 and below), with the highest weight at 9st 9lb and a minimum weight of 8-4. Penalties apply after August 2nd: 4-6yo incur a 5lb penalty for each race won, while 7yo+ incur a 4lb penalty.

Race Shape & Pace Map

The 5f course at Beverley, especially on Good-To-Firm ground, tends to favour horses from inside to middle draws with early speed. Rail runners can be particularly challenging to reel in.

• Likely Front-runners: Jojo Rabbit (draw 4) and Without Flaw (draw 5) are both natural trailblazers and capable of blasting out from the gate. Jojo Rabbit, in particular, excels when dictating from the front.
• Prominent Stalkers: Herakles (draw 3), South Shore (draw 2), and Sergeant Mayer (draw 7) are expected to be prominent, tracking the leaders. Herakles and South Shore are ideally berthed for this role.
• Mid-pack/Hold-up Types: Fenlander (draw 10), One More Dream (draw 6), Thankuappreciate (draw 8), Bayraat (draw 9), and Rock Of England (draw 1) are likely to be held up or run from mid-pack. Notably, Rock Of England’s inside draw (1) might be wasted as he doesn’t typically use early gate speed.

The likely scenario points to fast early fractions with Jojo Rabbit and Without Flaw pressing each other for the lead. This setup could benefit prominent stalkers and late closers if the pace is overcooked.

Key Runner Insights

Here’s a snapshot of the main contenders based on their profiles, factoring in pace, draw, and recent RPRs:

• Jojo Rabbit (Draw 4)
  • Strengths: Has 7 wins at 5f, with 6 in Class 5 or lower, and thrives when dictating the pace. Recently won over C&D making all on good-to-firm ground. His draw (4) is perfect for his front-running tactics.
  • Considerations: Is up 5lb from his latest win. Needs an uncontested lead to fully capitalise on his pace.
• Without Flaw (Draw 5)
  • Strengths: A Beverley specialist, with two C&D wins in July. She is chasing a C&D hat-trick and is thriving on quick turnarounds. Her 3lb rise is considered minimal. Has 3 wins from 8 starts at 5f lifetime.
  • Considerations: Drawn just outside Jojo Rabbit, she might be forced into a speed duel on the flank instead of dictating.
• Herakles (Draw 3)
  • Strengths: Has 4 wins at 5f, 3 of which were in Class 5. He is perfectly drawn in stall 3 to track the leaders. He has twice chased Jojo Rabbit home recently and is now 3lb better off at the weights from their last meeting. His trainer, Paul Midgley, has a good record at Beverley.
  • Considerations: Not the most prolific on turf, with only 1 win from 20 starts.
• South Shore (Draw 2)
  • Strengths: The addition of a hood has transformed him, leading to his first win for Ruth Carr in June. He was an unlucky second to Without Flaw over C&D recently and has recorded a high RPR of 97. His draw (2) gives him a golden rail trip.
  • Considerations: Is up in class for this race. His win record at 5f is not strong (0 wins from 6 starts).
• Sergeant Mayer (Draw 7)
  • Strengths: An ultra-consistent Class 5 handicapper, placing in 13 out of 26 handicaps. He handles good-to-firm ground and is tactically versatile. Has run well over C&D in the past.
  • Considerations: Has no wins from 4 starts at Beverley and may find one or two too quick again.
• Thankuappreciate (Draw 8)
  • Strengths: Very well-handicapped now, dropping into Class 5 after racing in Class 3/4. Showed a hint of revival over 6f last time. Has placed in 2 out of 4 starts at Beverley.
  • Considerations: Needs a strong pace collapse to come into play.
• Fenlander (Draw 10)
  • Strengths: An eight-race maiden, but has shown promise, including a close third at Nottingham over 6f. Recorded a strong RPR of 82 recently and handles firm ground.
  • Considerations: Has only had 1 run at 5f. His wide draw (10) is a significant negative at Beverley over 5f.
• Bayraat (Draw 9)
  • Strengths: A 9-year-old veteran with a consistent record, including a third at York two starts back.
  • Considerations: Has only one win from 25 starts and is considered thoroughly exposed. His draw (9) and mid-runner pace scenario are against him at Beverley.
• One More Dream (Draw 6)
  • Strengths: Won three times in the first half of the year and is a 5f winner. His rider’s 5lb claim helps.
  • Considerations: His form has cooled more recently, with RPRs dipping. Has not won in his only start at Beverley.
• Rock Of England (Draw 1)
  • Strengths: Benefits from an inside stall (1).
  • Considerations: Has not won in pushing two years. His current form is poor, and he doesn’t typically use early gate speed, wasting his draw advantage.

Tissue Odds (100% book)

The tissue odds for the Beverley 3:47 race are as follows:

• Jojo Rabbit – 9/2 (16.3%)
• Without Flaw – 5/1 (14.97%)
• Herakles – 6/1 (12.83%)
• South Shore – 6/1 (12.83%)
• Sergeant Mayer – 13/2 (11.98%)
• Fenlander – 10/1 (8.17%)
• Thankuappreciate – 10/1 (8.17%)
• One More Dream – 14/1 (5.99%)
• Bayraat – 16/1 (5.28%)
• Rock Of England – 25/1 (3.45%)

Pro Punter’s Smart Plays

Given there are 10 runners, an each-way selection is viable.

• Win Bet: Herakles (draw 3)
  • Rationale: Herakles is perfectly drawn to track the likely fast early pace from Jojo Rabbit and Without Flaw. He has a favourable weight swing against Jojo Rabbit from their previous encounters. The stiff finish at Beverley plays to his late thrust, making him well-suited to pounce if the front two overcook the early pace. His trainer also has a good record at Beverley.
• Each-Way (10+ runners, 3 places): South Shore (draw 2)
  • Rationale: South Shore has shown significant improvement since the addition of a hood. He was an unlucky second over C&D last time out. His ideal draw in stall 2 should secure him a dream rail trip behind the early speed. He is a live contender for a top-3 finish, with the potential to roll the leaders late if a hot duel unfolds.