Race Profile

• Race Name: British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Class 3).
• Date & Time: 14 August 2025, 4:35 PM at Salisbury.
• Distance: 1m4f (1m4f5y).
• Conditions: For 3yo+ fillies & mares rated 71-90, which are EBF eligible. Horses rated 91, 92, and 70 or below are also eligible.
• Prize Money: £50,000 guaranteed, with £25,770 for the winner.
• Going: Good To Firm.
• Runners: Originally 6 declarations, but Chilli Queen is a non-runner, leaving a field of 5 runners.
• Historical Bias: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last nine renewals. Trainer William Haggas (trainer of Orionis) has won this race twice in the last six years with progressive fillies. The race typically favours progressive types from top stables, often closing late off a solid pace.

Race Shape (Pace + Setup)

• Leaders: Ghaiyya and Thankyou Baroness are both happiest racing prominently or leading.
• Stalk/Press: Favorite Memory can sit close to the pace.
• Closers: Orionis and Aiming High are likely to be held up mid-to-rear.
• Projection: With Good To Firm going and two confirmed pace angles, an honest to strong gallop is expected, which should favour late finishers like Orionis.

Runner Snapshots (Ratings Foundation Lens)

• 1 – Favorite Memory (OR 87, 3yo) – Ralph Beckett / Rossa Ryan
  • Form: Bolted up in a 1m4f maiden at Doncaster (GF) before a severe flop on handicap debut in a Listed race on Good to Soft ground.
  • Pedigree: By Frankel, bred to be well above this grade and stay 12f+.
  • Positives: Lightly raced with upside intact, back on quick ground, and her trainer won last year’s renewal.
  • Negatives: The Newmarket flop was severe, and she’s unproven under pressure in big fields.
  • Adjusted Rating: ~89.
• 2 – Ghaiyya (OR 87, 3yo) – Charlie Johnston / Joe Fanning
  • Form: Has won 3 of her last 4 starts when ridden positively, including a cosy Chester win recently. Disappointed at Ascot when held up.
  • Pedigree: Stamina is deep in her page.
  • Positives: In-form, physically strong, proven on quick ground, and thrives when dictating the pace.
  • Negatives: Carries a 6lb penalty and faces a potential pace clash with Thankyou Baroness.
  • Adjusted Rating: ~88.
• 3 – Thankyou Baroness (OR 75, 4yo) – Ilka Gansera-Leveque / Benoit De La Sayette
  • Form: Unexposed, made a successful handicap debut at Doncaster (C5, GF) on her first attempt at 1m4f.
  • Pedigree: By Sea The Moon, bred for middle distances.
  • Positives: Travelled like a winner last time and stamina confirmed. Open to further improvement.
  • Negatives: Faces a significant class hike and her front-running style is likely to clash with Ghaiyya.
  • Adjusted Rating: ~83.
• 5 – Aiming High (OR 72, 6yo) – David Simcock / Joey Haynes
  • Form: A consistent mare who typically runs her race but is thoroughly exposed with limited upside, having only 1 turf win from 18 starts.
  • Pedigree: By Lope de Vega, with staying influence.
  • Positives: Consistent and handles the ground/trip.
  • Negatives: Needs others to underperform significantly to contend for the win; lacks a winning punch at this level.
  • Adjusted Rating: ~82.
• 6 – Orionis (OR 79, 3yo) – William Haggas / Tom Marquand
  • Form: Progressive, with maiden and Class 4 wins, followed by a strong-finishing 4th in a competitive Ascot Class 2 race over this trip (GF).
  • Pedigree: By Sea The Stars, bred to improve with trip and age.
  • Positives: Strongest profile in the race: a progressive 3yo, ideally suited by the Weight-for-Age allowance. Her trainer and jockey have a strong record in this race. The likely pace setup should suit her closing style.
  • Negatives: Needs a true pace to run at, and can be a slow starter on occasion.
  • Adjusted Rating: ~90.

My Tissue Odds

• Orionis: 9/4 (28%)
• Favorite Memory: 2/1 (33%)
• Ghaiyya: 10/3 (23%)
• Thankyou Baroness: 8/1 (11%)
• Aiming High: 20/1 (5%)

Pro Punter Smart Plays

• Win Bet (Main): Orionis. She is the most likely winner due to her progressive 3yo profile, strong closing kick, and the fact that the race setup is ideal for her. Her Ascot run suggests she is well-handicapped for this race.
  • Value Trigger: ≥ 9/4 acceptable; ≥ 5/2 attractive.
• Saver: Ghaiyya. She is in good form and could get an uncontested lead, covering the scenario where she controls the pace.
  • Value Trigger: ≥ 7/2.
• Lay Angle: Favorite Memory at ≤ 6/4. Her short price is too much faith after her severe last-time-out flop, and she is still unproven in a proper handicap battle.
• Exotics (Small): Orionis–Ghaiyya reverse forecast.

Each-Way Selection

• No Each-Way (EW) bet is recommended for this race. This is due to the small field size of 5 runners, which results in poor place terms.
• If you are looking for a place-leaning angle, consider the “without Favorite Memory” markets: Orionis top-2 or Ghaiyya win-only in that specific market, if attractive prices are available.
• Consider adjusting your staking: If the early races at Salisbury show a pronounced front-runner bias, it might be advisable to nudge a bit more of your stake onto Ghaiyya as cover; otherwise, a top-heavy stake on Orionis is preferred.