Pace Angles + Draw Angles:
This looks a strongly run 6f handicap, with front-runners likely from multiple quarters: Little Queenie (draw 8), Valiant Force (draw 2), and Dark Ace (draw 6) have all made running before. Collective Power, Daamberdiplomat, and Catch The Paddy prefer to be delivered late, raising hold-up risks. The draw is likely neutral, with low-to-mid gates preferred at Dundalk over 6f when the field size is 10+, but pace trumps berth here.
Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders
Valiant Force – Proven, very capable over this course/trip with a record of 3-4 here and a Timeform high of 104. Although he was below par at Ascot and Leopardstown, he bounced back well behind a strong winner last time (Eclairage). This is his optimal set-up: course, class, and pace. Potential class edge.
Daamberdiplomat – Proven, back to form in cheekpieces and toughing out a good Curragh handicap last time. He’s consistent on AW and enjoys a strong pace. Has won off this mark and stays on well. Colin Keane’s return to the saddle would’ve been notable, but Ben Coen knows him well.
Little Queenie – Proven and in-form, landed this race last year and is coming off career-best efforts this season. Handles pressure and thrives on this surface. Her draw is not ideal (8) with other pace pressure around, but she’s in the form of her life and gets in off a workable mark again.
Dark Ace – Promising, still lightly raced and looked progressive earlier in the year. Ignore latest at Wolverhampton when eased. Impressive C&D maiden and handicap winner, with scope for better if delivering late off strong gallop. Trainer/jockey combo strong with improving sprinters.
Never Just A Dream – Regressive, previously smart in Dubai but hasn’t repeated that form recently. Colin Keane is an eye-catching booking, but recent efforts have lacked spark. Still, a drop in class, favourable draw, and second-time visor means a revival isn’t impossible.
Catch The Paddy – Inconsistent, not badly handicapped but profile suggests 7f suits better. Up against sharper types here and recent figures suggest only minor place chance.
Collective Power – Proven AW operator, dual C&D winner including this race in 2023. Needs to be delivered very late and always reliant on race collapsing in front. In better heart than recent form suggests; each-way claims if pace collapses.
Interesting Outsiders:
- I Bid You Ajou – Progressive, thrives on fast-run 6f races, strong record at Fairyhouse and holding his form. Yet to convince on AW but cannot rule out completely with recent sectionals showing efficiency.
- Genesis – Interesting, back to 6f last time and shaped well from the wrong side. Up in class but lightly raced on AW and may have upside off current mark.
Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis
- Valiant Force: 9/10 – Track/tactics perfect, class edge, draw ideal.
- Daamberdiplomat: 8/10 – Reliable in this setup, well-handled by rider.
- Little Queenie: 8/10 – C&D winner, in form, but could face early pace duel.
- Dark Ace: 7/10 – Still potential; if bounce back from last run, could be dangerous.
- Never Just A Dream: 6/10 – Risky profile but dangerously handicapped if revived.
- Catch The Paddy: 6/10 – Stamina more suitable; trip and class questions.
- Collective Power: 6/10 – Needs melt-down up front, definite frame chance if so.
- I Bid You Ajou: 6/10 – Form rising but unproven surface.
- Genesis: 5/10 – A few positives but up against it in class.
- Agouti Bear: 5/10 – Outclassed on recent efforts, still unproven in this company.
Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.
Each-Way Angles (10 Runners)
- Collective Power and Dark Ace look the best each-way value plays if the race falls apart late.
- I Bid You Ajou could sneak into the frame with further improvement.
Private Tissue Estimate
- Valiant Force: 5/2
- Daamberdiplomat: 4/1
- Little Queenie: 11/2
- Dark Ace: 7/1
- Never Just A Dream: 8/1
- Collective Power: 10/1
- I Bid You Ajou: 12/1
- Catch The Paddy: 16/1
- Genesis: 20/1
- Agouti Bear: 25/1
Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.
Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)
This looks a well-contested sprint handicap, but Valiant Force is returning to his favourite venue and has the form, pace, and tactical profile to assert class in a race where several need things to fall right. His sectionals suggest he’s lost none of his sharpness. The main threat is Daamberdiplomat, reliable and race-fit, while Dark Ace remains a lurker with upside if forgiven his latest run.
Smart Play
- Win Selection: Valiant Force – track-specialist returning to optimal conditions.
- Each-Way Saver: Dark Ace – progressive 3yo with C&D credentials who could bounce back at value.
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