Race Conditions: 1m, standard surface at Dundalk, 3yo+ Handicap (0-60), €10,000 total prize fund.

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Pace & Draw Angles

• Likely Pace: No gallop or muddling pace likely. There are no habitual front-runners with an established record of dictating. Moderate early fractions expected.
• Draw Bias: Low to middle draws historically favoured at this trip when pace is even or steady. Those drawn wide (>12) face a tactical challenge unless they are clear hold-up closers.

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Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders

Strongest Contenders:

• Ballymagreehan (Proven, Progressive)
  • Score: 8/10
  • 3yo who made all to win over C&D in July. Lightly raced and open to further improvement. Drawn in stall 1—a huge plus with no obvious front-runner competition.
  • Track, trip, surface all positives. This looks a targeted return.
• Obama Army (Proven, Competitive)
  • Score: 7.5/10
  • Three recent solid efforts in similar company; stays the trip and has performed well on synthetic. Drawn wide (14) which is a concern tactically, but will be delivered late.
  • Needs luck in running—hold-up risk.
• Drafted (Competitive, Not Proven at Trip)
  • Score: 7.5/10
  • In good heart this spring at Wolverhampton. Suspect stamina over a mile, but profile suggests Dundalk should suit. Drawn 11—not ideal but manageable with patient ride.

Main Dangers:

• Cherry Pink (Proven, Slightly Regressive)
  • Score: 7/10
  • Course winner who generally keeps on but struggles to quicken. Drawn well in 3 and drops back to AW, where she has previous form. Rider claims 10lb—interesting.
• Distillate (Proven, Slightly Regressive)
  • Score: 6.5/10
  • Strong earlier in season but has lost her edge. Drawn 15 and not sure to stay mile. Needs to revert to strong earlier form; wide draw a negative.

Interesting Outsiders:

• Jackandthefox (Exposed, Consistent at Dundalk)
  • Score: 6.5/10
  • Lacks a win but has placed here consistently. Should sit close to pace from stall 4 in a race lacking early speed. One-paced but reliable.
• Punk Poet (Regressive but Flashes Ability)
  • Score: 6/10
  • Veteran who’s dropped in grade. If getting a slow pace and positive ride, could surprise. Drawn 9—neutral.
• Nibras Rainbow (Unreliable but Capable)
  • Score: 6/10
  • One good run can sneak into frame. Strong form at Killarney last autumn; shape of the race may suit if they dawdle early.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Summary

• Ballymagreehan: 8/10 – Well drawn, track winner, progressive.
• Obama Army: 7.5/10 – In good form but wide draw and hold-up risk.
• Drafted: 7.5/10 – In form, capable at 7f, stamina test at 1m a question.
• Cherry Pink: 7/10 – Back to AW; workable mark; needs everything to fall right.
• Distillate: 6.5/10 – Surface suits but trip and draw are negatives.
• Jackandthefox: 6.5/10 – Exposed but honest; good draw.
• Punk Poet: 6/10 – Regressive, but race shape may suit.
• Nibras Rainbow: 6/10 – Inconsistent; capable if he turns up.
• Loaded Quiver: 5.5/10 – No Dundalk form; eased last time; may need 7f.
• Expert Analysis: 5/10 – 3yo; not shown enough; watching brief.
• Bungle Inthedesert: 5/10 – C&D winner but form tailed off.
• Akmaam: 5/10 – Course record poor; better over hurdles now.
• Zero Fighter: 5/10 – Won weak Roscommon race; hard to repeat.
• Hastily: 5/10 – Drawn 16 and erratic form.
• Wayne R Walker: 4.5/10 – Maiden; stamina stretch.
• Diamond Cross: 4/10 – Very inexperienced; draw OK but likely outclassed.
• Akashaa: 4/10 – Better than it looks; unexposed; wide draw hurts.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles (17 Runners)

• Jackandthefox (EW Angle): Well drawn in 4, consistent frame finishes at this venue. Can sit handy in a muddling pace race.
• Cherry Pink: Capable off current mark with 10lb claimer. May be overlooked in betting.

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Private Tissue Estimate (Guide Odds)

• Ballymagreehan – 4/1
• Obama Army – 6/1
• Drafted – 13/2
• Cherry Pink – 15/2
• Distillate – 8/1
• Jackandthefox – 9/1
• Punk Poet – 10/1
• Nibras Rainbow – 12/1
• Rest – 14/1 to 40/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Smart Play

This low-grade handicap lacks a reliable pace angle, suiting those drawn low who can either lead or sit prominently. Ballymagreehan ticks the most boxes—unexposed, proven at the track, and ideally drawn in stall 1. Obama Army and Drafted are in form but hostage to fortune due to their running styles and wide draws.

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Smart Play

• Win Bet: Ballymagreehan – best profile, track winner, ideally drawn.
• Each-Way Saver: Jackandthefox – consistent at Dundalk, drawn to sit close in muddling gallop.