Pace & Draw Angles:

This race features several habitual front-runners: Killavia, Flowerhead, and Daneh Of Dandy look likely to force a strong early pace. Expect a strong gallop, which could play into the hands of efficient stalkers and closers with tactical speed.

Draw bias is typically neutral at Newbury over 5f, though high draws can be slightly favoured in big fields when the pace is drawn wide — here, pace is spread but prominent types dominate mid-to-high stalls. Stalls 9-14 look tactically well placed.

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Strongest Contenders:

• Flowerhead (Charlie Clover) – Progressive (109 RPR)
  • Excellent run in the Queen Mary (2nd of 23) before another solid Group 3 showing.
  • Consistent on quick ground and likely to appreciate the strong pace.
  • Versatile style and drawn well in 14 for a stalking trip.
  • Strongest adjusted figures and proven in big fields.
• Killavia (Rod Millman) – Progressive (100 RPR)
  • Clear Listed form from Sandown and made all to win a maiden since.
  • Speed pedigree and progressive profile.
  • Drawn 9 with prominent style — race setup suits, and she won’t need to improve much to contend.
• Daneh Of Dandy (James Tate) – Promising (97 RPR)
  • Bounced back from a G3 no-show to win a novice under penalty with authority.
  • Looks like a proper 5f filly and drawn 12, ideally placed.
  • Still unexposed at the level, though may face pace pressure.

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Main Dangers:

• Novelette (Crisfords) – Progressive (94 RPR)
  • Improving steadily and hood has made a difference.
  • Won a handicap from off the pace – this setup suits again.
  • Yard won this race last year – notable stat.
  • Low draw in 1 isn’t ideal for a closer but she’s tactically versatile.
• Wateen (Alice Haynes) – Promising (95 RPR)
  • Consistent and placed in French Listed company.
  • Tongue-tie seemed to help last time – repeat of latest puts her in frame.
• Sapphire Steps (Hannon) – Promising (97 RPR)
  • Won nicely on debut and didn’t stay 7f in a G3 latest.
  • Drop to 5f could help sharpen her again.
  • Smart pedigree, respected though may need further ultimately.

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Interesting Outsiders:

• Entailed (Andrew Balding) – Promising (86 RPR)
  • Strong win latest over 5f at Sandown, nicely on top at finish.
  • Drawn 13, improving and handled Newbury previously.
  • Not out of it if improving again.
• Lope El Fuego (Greatrex) – Fair (87 RPR)
  • Solid early form and trainer noted she’d suit nurseries.
  • Faces deeper opposition here but can pick up pieces if pace collapses.

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Runner Scores & Suitability Analysis:

• Flowerhead: 9/10 – Strongest adjusted form; track/trip ideal; well drawn.
• Killavia: 8.5/10 – Suited to test, progressive; may face early competition.
• Daneh Of Dandy: 8/10 – Sharp 5f filly, bounce-back type; ideally drawn.
• Novelette: 8/10 – Improving; hood helped; wrong side of track but well capable.
• Wateen: 7.5/10 – Consistent, battle-hardened; just shy of best here.
• Sapphire Steps: 7.5/10 – Stamina-laden pedigree, better over 6f+ later on.
• Entailed: 7/10 – Coming to hand; may sneak place.
• Lope El Fuego: 6.5/10 – Not disgraced but this is a big ask.
• Our Cody: 6/10 – Pulled up last time; not easy to trust.
• Hollywood Treasure: 5.5/10 – One run, form yet to be franked.
• Duskaura: 5/10 – No Listed form; trip okay but more needed.
• Palmeira: 5/10 – Better in nurseries; tongue tie/cheekpieces help but not enough.
• Little Jaybee: 5/10 – Running to level, but ceiling seems limited.
• Solana Rose: 4.5/10 – Form regressive; early potential not sustained.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles (14 runners):

• Novelette and Entailed appeal as strong each-way propositions at likely double-figure odds. Both are improving, tactically suited, and represent in-form yards.

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Private Tissue Estimate (Probabilistic Odds):

• Flowerhead – 5/2
• Killavia – 4/1
• Daneh Of Dandy – 11/2
• Novelette – 13/2
• Wateen – 10/1
• Sapphire Steps – 11/1
• Entailed – 12/1
• Lope El Fuego – 16/1
• Our Cody – 25/1
• Duskaura – 28/1
• Hollywood Treasure – 33/1
• Palmeira – 40/1
• Little Jaybee – 50/1
• Solana Rose – 66/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Smart Play:

This is a lively edition of the St Hugh’s, with confirmed pace and a few standout juveniles. Flowerhead brings the best form and has the right blend of experience, tactical speed, and finishing power. Killavia is a notable threat from the front if she gets loose. Daneh Of Dandy is lightly raced and could go well, but faces stiffer early pace here. Novelette and Entailed are peaking at the right time and offer decent value as closers.

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Smart Play:

• Win Selection: Flowerhead – Class edge, strong 2yo filly form, perfect setup.
• Each-Way Saver: Novelette – Improving sharply, proven off a strong pace, and 2-2 in headgear.