5.20 Newbury – Christopher Smith Associates LLP Handicap (Class 4), 3yo+, 7f, Good to Firm

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Pace Scenario: Projected to be even to fair with several pressing types (Mythical Composer, She’s The Duchess, Sunshine Mag) but no confirmed front-runner likely to commit fully. This setup may suit trackers and efficient stalkers drawn handy.

Draw Angle: Low to middle draws (1–6) tend to be favourable over this trip at Newbury on fast ground. Wide draws (stalls 9–10) risk covering extra ground or being caught wide on the bend.


2. Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders + Trends/Timeform Comments

Strongest Contenders:

  • Mythical Composer (Proven/Progressive) – Shaped well in a strong York contest two starts back and ran as though the extended trip last time stretched him. On today’s quicker surface, 7f looks spot-on. Timefigs consistently mid-80s and looks capable off this mark. Solid claims.
  • Forever My Prince (Progressive) – Trip versatility proven with a good third last time when stepped up to 7f. TFR 85 at Newmarket (16 May) was boosted by sectionals that suggest more to come. Track likely to suit.
  • She’s The Duchess (Progressive) – Lightly raced filly with a reliable profile and course form. Her Newmarket and Redcar efforts stand up well here. Tongue-tie seemed to help last time and she’s better than her bare numbers suggest.

Main Dangers:

  • Calyxoh (Promising) – Still early in his development. Good second in a strong Newmarket maiden and stayed on late in a well-run 7f contest last time. Likely more to come, but drawn in 5 and has headgear retained.
  • Winston’s Warrior (Progressive) – Best efforts have come on faster ground and two solid 83 RPRs signal he’s ahead of his mark. Low draw suits his style and he’s unexposed at the trip.

Interesting Outsiders:

  • Youarenotforgiven (Proven) – Capable on his day and two recent midpack efforts don’t tell the full story. This older gelding is well-handicapped on old form and could spring a surprise if getting cover early.
  • Sunshine Mag (Unexposed) – Bounced back last time and posted a competitive RPR of 83. Could build on that, though may need a slight pace collapse.

Hold-Up Risk Types:

  • Bear Force One, Youarenotforgiven, and possibly Sunshine Mag – all need a strong pace and luck in running.

3. Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

  • Mythical Composer: 8/10 – Ideal trip, course suits, consistent RPRs.
  • Forever My Prince: 8/10 – Trip opened new options; ground/trip combo optimal.
  • She’s The Duchess: 7/10 – Straightforward, drawn wide though.
  • Calyxoh: 7/10 – Lightly raced; improving; has potential upside.
  • Winston’s Warrior: 7/10 – Returns to ideal trip/surface; well-drawn.
  • Sunshine Mag: 6/10 – Looks capable, but needs to back up latest.
  • Youarenotforgiven: 6/10 – Exposed but well-handicapped and can go well if race collapses.
  • Kalahari Blue: 5/10 – May prefer further; needs to settle better.
  • Mapledurham: 4/10 – Better at lower level; struggles in class 4.
  • Bear Force One: 3/10 – Out of form; ground and grade both against.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.


4. Each-Way Angles (10 Runners)

  • Calyxoh (7/1+) – Open to progress; fair draw; handles ground.
  • Winston’s Warrior (10/1+) – If settling better, has every chance.

5. Private Tissue Estimate

  • Mythical Composer – 3/1
  • Forever My Prince – 9/2
  • She’s The Duchess – 6/1
  • Calyxoh – 7/1
  • Winston’s Warrior – 8/1
  • Sunshine Mag – 12/1
  • Youarenotforgiven – 14/1
  • Kalahari Blue – 20/1
  • Mapledurham – 25/1
  • Bear Force One – 33/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.


6. Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

This is a deep and trappy 3yo+ handicap with plenty of lightly raced improvers. Mythical Composer brings the most robust and sustained profile into this, while Forever My Prince and She’s The Duchess look strong second-tier options. Calyxoh could be lurking on a mark he’s better than, and Winston’s Warrior has scope if putting it together.

Smart Play:

  • Win Selection: Mythical Composer – Proven form at this level, well-drawn, and conditions ideal.
  • Each-Way Saver: Calyxoh – Lightly raced, effective at trip, and looks to be improving steadily.

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