Pace Angles + Draw Bias

This race should feature an even to slightly strong pace, with multiple prominent racers engaged (Tribal Star, Longbourn, Final Voyage). With 15 runners over this extended 10f trip, inside-to-middle draws are typically favourable on the Dundalk polytrack – low numbers can control the tempo in tactical races. However, there’s no strong rail bias unless pace collapses.

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Contenders, Dangers & Outsiders

Strongest Contenders

• Tribal Star (4yo, McGuinness, Caffrey) – Progressive
  Lightly raced, consistent in AW handicaps, and a close 2nd over C&D behind San Andreas last winter. Posted a Timefigure of 102 on Newcastle return in a deep contest. Should relish the return to this surface and looks well-treated off OR88. Ideal conditions.
• Final Voyage (7yo, Murtagh, Mulligan) – Proven
  Strong finisher, multiple wins at Dundalk, versatile trip-wise and posted back-to-back solid efforts on turf (RPRs 94–99). Suited by a strong pace and more efficient under patient handling. Claims boosted with return to AW, has form with San Andreas.
• God Of Thunder (6yo, Hogan) – Promising
  Lightly raced on the flat, but dual AW winner with strong sectionals last time at Galway when not getting the breaks. Travelled like the best horse and now returns to favoured AW. Still unexposed in this sphere.
• Walhaan (9yo, Murphy) – Proven C&D specialist
  A three-time course winner and a battler. Up 4lb for a narrow win but retains strong tactical pace and goes well fresh. Drawn wide in 11, which is not ideal, but cheekpieces retained.

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Main Dangers

• Retracement (4yo, Murtagh) – Promising
  Could be one of the more interesting types. Eyecatcher on Curragh debut, shaped like a stayer in the making and was noted in the Race Pass as “one for the future.” Should stay this trip well, and drawn midfield in 7.
• Longbourn (9yo, O’Sullivan) – Proven
  Targeted this race with success in 2024. Has had a similar prep, hitting form in a lesser Leopardstown race before. Recent form slightly underwhelming but course form strong, and a 3lb claimer negates the penalty.

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Interesting Outsiders

• Nocturnal (4yo, Lupini) – Promising
  Two solid recent turf runs over extended trips suggest she’s crying out for polytrack and extra distance. Pedigree strong for AW, and could improve for surface switch.
• Game Point (3yo, Lyons) – Unexposed
  Finished runner-up on all five starts, most recently over C&D when denied late. Handicap debut off 87, and will need to prove he’s not one-paced. From top yard, must be respected.
• Pearl Jewel (4yo, Timmons) – Unexposed at the trip
  Proven over 12f on AW. Eye-catching form in maidens and might be underestimated from a good draw. One to keep onside if market speaks.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Ratings

• Tribal Star: 9/10 – Ideal surface and track, improving, pace-suited.
• Final Voyage: 8/10 – Well-handicapped, proven C&D, stays well.
• God Of Thunder: 8/10 – Fresh profile, looks a “go day”, improving.
• Walhaan: 7/10 – Battle-hardened C&D winner, draw makes things harder.
• Retracement: 7/10 – Will stay, improving, more to come.
• Game Point: 7/10 – Scopey but potential attitude concern.
• Longbourn: 6.5/10 – Runs to his mark, strong yard intent.
• Cheers Again: 6.5/10 – C&D record good, lacks a change of gears.
• Nocturnal: 6.5/10 – Improving, best AW form yet to come.
• San Andreas: 6/10 – Likes track but vulnerable late.
• Star Harbour: 6/10 – Regressive, tough to catch right.
• Spicy Margarita: 5.5/10 – Unproven stamina, wide draw, potential.
• Satono Chevalier: 5.5/10 – Loves the track, but inconsistent.
• Monasterboice: 5/10 – Needs to prove he stays.
• Pearl Jewel: 5/10 – Up in grade, might sneak into frame.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles (15 runners)

• God Of Thunder – Looks like a plot, strong Galway run, 1st-time headgear boost previously.
• Retracement – Shape of last run suggests scope to rate much higher.
• Nocturnal – Strong recent turf form, interesting switch to Dundalk.

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Private Tissue Estimate

• Tribal Star – 4/1
• Final Voyage – 6/1
• God Of Thunder – 6/1
• Retracement – 8/1
• Walhaan – 9/1
• Longbourn – 10/1
• Game Point – 12/1
• Nocturnal – 14/1
• Spicy Margarita – 16/1
• Others – 20/1+

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

This shapes as a strongly contested handicap with a mix of exposed warriors and interestingly unexposed improvers returning to their ideal conditions. The draw and surface will play a key role.

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Smart Play

• Win Bet: Tribal Star – Best profile for this race on return to favoured surface; pace setup perfect.
• Each-Way Saver: God Of Thunder – Eye-catching at Galway, this looks like “go day” on return to AW.