Pace Angles + Draw Angles:
This race is likely to unfold at an even to steady pace, with no obvious confirmed front-runners. Several in the field (Tingarran Express, Eve’s Hope, Ballycashin) prefer racing handily or pressing leaders but none are aggressive trailblazers. This opens the door for well-positioned stalkers or those with a tactical turn of foot. No draw bias at Tramore over hurdles, but track position turning in is vital due to the sharp nature of the circuit.
Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders
Strongest Contenders:
1. Paul’s Dream – Progressive
- Trainer A. Mullins has two in here, and this mare has shown clear upward form since entering handicaps.
- Strong finishing second two runs back at Wexford (RPR 117) and backed that up with a solid fourth last time.
- Handles quick ground well and likely has more to give off 92. Good profile.
2. Onebrightbluerose – Proven
- Has been holding her form all summer; dual C&D winner with strong recent efforts (RPR 114).
- Versatile, reliable and consistent in this grade, albeit possibly near her ceiling.
- The blinkers seem to have sharpened her. Respected from the foot of the weights.
3. A Snow White Park – Promising
- Lightly raced 4yo from Margaret Mullins. Created a good impression on debut at Ballinrobe and is bred to stay well.
- Excuses at Galway in a stronger race, but her RPR of 120 on debut is top-end here.
- Dangerous improver now into handicaps; unexposed profile.
Main Dangers:
4. Ballycashin – Proven
- High-marked (OR 110) and respectable RPRs in 3 of last 5 runs, though remains vulnerable to improvers.
- Ground and trip both fine. May have been flattered by sectional shape of run two back.
- Topweight and 8 years old, but consistent.
5. Tingarran Express – Exposed but capable
- Often placed, and her best efforts (RPRs 113–115) can mix it at this level.
- Finishing effort a concern — has regularly faded late on despite travelling well.
- Frame contender again, but hard to see her winning without pace collapse.
6. Stumblin In – Capable but unreliable
- Patchy form but showed she can win off similar marks when conditions are right.
- Has struggled at longer trips recently; drop back to two miles is positive.
- Needs to bounce back from recent flop.
Interesting Outsiders:
Miss Maxfort – Promising
- Yet to fully deliver in handicaps but shaped well on maiden win and pedigree suggests improvement to come.
- Could be underestimated after midpack finishes in deeper races.
Polly Poppins – Promising
- Stayed on late last time; eye-catching effort and this stiffer finish could suit.
- RPRs of 116 and 117 stand out for one rated just 89. Market move would be significant.
Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis
- Paul’s Dream: 8/10 – Well suited by ground, distance, and track; looks to be peaking.
- Onebrightbluerose: 8/10 – Course form and recent efforts stack up; well in at weights.
- A Snow White Park: 7.5/10 – Unexposed improver; this could be a “go day”.
- Ballycashin: 7/10 – Solid but exposed; topweight against progressive types.
- Tingarran Express: 6.5/10 – Likely to run her race but hard to see her finding more.
- Miss Maxfort: 6.5/10 – Unexposed; not one to give up on.
- Stumblin In: 6/10 – Capable on a going day but unreliable.
- Eve’s Hope: 6/10 – Effective when conditions suit; signs of regression.
- Sea Of Doubt: 5/10 – Patchy and recent efforts uninspiring.
- Polly Poppins: 6/10 – Has a race in her; interesting if stepped up in trip soon.
- Tasmanian Girl: 5/10 – Very hit and miss; not solid enough at present.
Note: Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days. Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.
Each-Way Angles:
With 12 declared runners, each-way betting is viable.
- Polly Poppins (EW) – Down the weights and ran on nicely last time. This sharper finish may help if she gets a pace to run at.
- Miss Maxfort (EW) – Lightly raced and shaped better than bare result two back. Back on a sound surface.
Private Tissue Estimate:
Based on Timeform data, form trends, race dynamics, and potential upside:
- Paul’s Dream – 3/1
- Onebrightbluerose – 4/1
- A Snow White Park – 11/2
- Ballycashin – 13/2
- Miss Maxfort – 10/1
- Polly Poppins – 10/1
- Tingarran Express – 12/1
- Stumblin In – 14/1
- Eve’s Hope – 16/1
- Sea Of Doubt – 20/1
- Tasmanian Girl – 25/1
Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.
Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play):
This is a wide-open mares’ handicap with a mix of exposed types and several unexposed improvers. Course form is a notable plus here, but sharp-track pace dynamics and tactical awareness will be key.
Smart Play:
- Win Selection: Paul’s Dream – Coming to the boil, progressive, and well suited to the conditions.
- Each-Way Saver: Polly Poppins – Threatening to run a big one; RPRs suggest she’s better than her mark.
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