Pace Angles & Draw Angles

The likely pace comes from Pinhole, Furthur, and possibly Ambiente Friendly, who has front-run in the past but pulled hard when restrained. Epic Poet and Candleford prefer a lead to aim at, while Nightime Dancer will be held up.

This should ensure an even-to-strong pace. On Newbury’s fair galloping track, draw bias is negligible over this trip, though prominent racers can dictate if left alone up front.

---

Strongest Contenders, Dangers & Interesting Outsiders

Strongest Contenders

• Candleford (Proven)
  A seasoned stayer with a Listed win this season and past G3 podium finishes. Likely to appreciate the ground and trip, and his Goodwood run hinted he’d benefit from a stronger gallop than he got. He’s versatile pace-wise and stays well.
• Epic Poet (Proven)
  Not seen since flopping in the Hardwicke, but his York second to Rebel’s Romance was a top effort, as was his Middle Eastern campaign. Class act on his day, but has a “bounce or burn out” profile after a hard winter. Clearly capable but returns from a 56-day break and connections note a Dubai-centric campaign.

Main Dangers

• Ambiente Friendly (Regressive)
  Runner-up in the Derby and Irish equivalent, but subsequent efforts have been disappointing. Pulling too hard and lacking finishing effort has become a theme. He now sports a hood again, but he’s got questions to answer, particularly about stamina at this trip.
• Furthur (Promising)
  Queen’s Vase second was smart form and the Ascot run showed real stamina upside. Last time was a mess tactically, but the overall profile remains positive. Balding/Murphy combo excels with staying types. Gets weight from elders.

Interesting Outsiders

• Nightime Dancer (Progressive)
  Derby 8th and Queen’s Vase runner-up, looks like a slow burner for the Hannon team. Likely to be dropped in again, so hold-up risk applies, but he’s improving and worth respecting.
• Pinhole (Promising)
  Took a big step forward in first-time cheekpieces last time and looks to be on a strong upward curve. Cheekpieces retained, and the pedigree suggests stamina will hold out. But needs another jump to win at this level.

---

Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

• Candleford: 8/10 – Proven at the level, handles the trip and ground. Tactically versatile.
• Epic Poet: 8/10 – Classy and proven stayer, but patchy profile and summer campaign uncertain.
• Ambiente Friendly: 6/10 – Lacks a finish this season; stamina doubts persist. Still high-class.
• Furthur: 7/10 – Improving 3yo with stamina and scope. Needs a cleaner trip than last time.
• Nightime Dancer: 6/10 – Talented, but hold-up risk and needs another step forward.
• Pinhole: 7/10 – On an upward curve. Still raw but could progress again with experience.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

---

Each-Way Angles (8 runners)

• Furthur – Gets weight, solid Ascot form, scope to improve again.
• Pinhole – Lightly raced and on the upgrade; cheekpieces a positive.

---

Private Tissue Estimate

• Candleford – 3/1
• Epic Poet – 7/2
• Furthur – 4/1
• Pinhole – 6/1
• Ambiente Friendly – 13/2
• Nightime Dancer – 9/1
• Others – 16/1+

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

---

Summary & Smart Play

This looks an open Group 3 where Candleford sets the standard with solid Group-class staying form and will benefit from a true pace. Epic Poet has the talent but isn’t an easy horse to trust for UK mid-season targets. The 3yos Furthur and Pinhole are improving and receive a generous weight allowance, which makes them a threat.

---

Smart Play

• Win selection: Candleford – solid profile, proven, well-placed if pace holds up.
• Each-way saver: Furthur – weight pull, improving, could be the best of the 3yos.