Pace Angles & Draw Angles

• Likely Pace: Even pace; no guaranteed front-runner, several showing early speed but none with habitual lead tactics.
• Draw Bias: With 13 runners and no confirmed bias over 6f at the Curragh on good ground, the draw looks neutral. However, low-to-mid stalls (1-7) may have a small positional edge tactically.

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Strongest Contenders

Sir Alfie – Proven

• Profile: 1 win from 4, form figures improving. Raced in maidens before solid nursery debut.
• Latest run (Cork): Plugged on late behind Jack The Bachelor. Previous win at Down Royal came from a battling effort after being headed.
• Timeform Notes: Stout attitude, and bred for further. Likely to improve again for 6f. Drawn well in 4.
• Score: 8/10

Raphello – Progressive

• Profile: Strong run latest over 6f at Sligo, just failing to reel in the winner. Bred to be speedy and tough.
• Timeform Notes: Out of a winning French mare, half to Flotus (Group-placed). Well-treated off 79 if progression continues.
• Score: 8/10

Baker Blue – Promising

• Profile: Good third on debut, consistent since but plateauing. Best form arguably behind Rogue Legend.
• Timeform Notes: Races honestly, but may lack acceleration to finish strongly. Stays 6f, solid yard, well drawn in 2.
• Score: 7/10

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Main Dangers

Monte Vista – Promising

• Profile: Three fair maiden runs. Fourth in big Naas field; excuses at Down Royal.
• Timeform Notes: Has shaped as if 6f is right. First-time cheekpieces dropped last time. Wide draw (10) is not ideal.
• Score: 6.5/10

Profit Centre – Unexposed

• Profile: Just 3 runs. Solid fourth at Cork over 5f, staying on well. Bred to improve with racing.
• Timeform Notes: Extra furlong suits. Ran in big fields and coped well. Trainer not in red-hot form, but Ben Coen rides.
• Score: 6.5/10

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Interesting Outsiders

Award Ceremony – Honest type

• Profile: Minor place form in five starts. Runs prominently. Handles cut.
• Timeform Notes: Not progressing, but consistent and drawn wide (12). Has form in similar conditions.
• Score: 6/10

Cisterna – Backmarker upgrade

• Profile: One-paced but shaped like a stayer. Full run over 6f could suit.
• Timeform Notes: Needs to sharpen up early but can finish off well. Under-the-radar type.
• Score: 5.5/10

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Hold-Up Risk Types

• Enthusiastically, Simmering Seas, Luna Beaux: All have been dropped out or failed to land a blow when ridden patiently. Need a strong pace and luck in running.
• Market check vital for Enthusiastically and Luna Beaux, who have hinted at ability.

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Runner Scores & Suitability

• Sir Alfie: 8/10 – Proven over stiff 5f, bred to stay 6f, solid draw.
• Raphello: 8/10 – Strong stamina finish, race shape should suit.
• Baker Blue: 7/10 – Honest; lacks a gear change but consistent.
• Profit Centre: 6.5/10 – Improving; well-handicapped; draw fine.
• Monte Vista: 6.5/10 – Needs to prove she can quicken; fair maiden form.
• Award Ceremony: 6/10 – Runs to a mark; vulnerable to improvers.
• Cisterna: 5.5/10 – Likely to be doing best work late.
• Believe In Glory: 5/10 – Keen; hinted at promise in UK but stiff test here.
• Gelato: 4.5/10 – Strong form two starts back but big blowout latest.
• Luna Beaux: 4/10 – Moderate overall; going neutral; form lacking substance.
• Simmering Seas: 4/10 – Poor recent effort; unproven.
• Enthusiastically: 4/10 – Failed to show any late kick; chance on breeding alone.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.

Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles (13 runners)

• Profit Centre (9-6, Drawn 3): Well-handicapped, staying-on style, lightly raced – could grab a place.
• Cisterna (8-12, Drawn 8): May pick up pieces late off a fair mark if pace collapses.

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Private Tissue Estimate

• Sir Alfie: 7/2
• Raphello: 4/1
• Baker Blue: 6/1
• Profit Centre: 8/1
• Monte Vista: 10/1
• Award Ceremony: 12/1
• Cisterna: 14/1
• Believe In Glory: 20/1
• Enthusiastically: 25/1
• Simmering Seas: 25/1
• Gelato: 28/1
• Luna Beaux: 33/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View

This is a competitive nursery, but a clear top two are emerging in Sir Alfie, who is solid and proven at a stiff 5f and now steps up in trip, and Raphello, who shaped with real intent last time and is clearly improving. With the pace likely to be even, hold-up types may struggle unless there’s an unexpected burn-up.

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Smart Play

• Win Selection: Sir Alfie – Proven, battle-hardened, and shaping as though 6f is ideal.
• Each-Way Saver: Profit Centre – Improving profile, up in trip, could sneak a place from a good draw.