1. Ratings Foundation – Key Adjusted RPRs
(last 12 months, adjusted for weight & age)
- Rhythm N Hooves – 100 (AW) / 97 turf – C&D winner in 2023, signs of life LTO.
- Getreadytorumble – 94 – unexposed 3yo improver, C&D winner in June.
- Lil Guff – 96 – evergreen mare, reliable late kick.
- Almaty Star – 100 (AW) / 93 turf – early pace weapon.
- Roach Power – 107 (soft) – well-treated on best figures.
- Faustus – 100 – older horse in form, but class question.
Most sit in the 92–96 zone, so separation will come from pace, draw, and run style.
2. Race Conditions Match
- Trip – All bar King’s Call and Star Chorus are proven 5f performers. Those two look better suited to a shade further.
- Ground – Good to firm in forecast:
- Positives: Getreadytorumble, Lil Guff, King Of Stars, Sugar Hill Babe.
- Versatile: Rhythm N Hooves, Glamorous Breeze.
- Course – Newbury straight 5f fair, but on quick ground middle-to-high draws can edge it if pace is there.
3. Tactical Fit & Pace Map Expectation
Likely front-runners:
- King Of Stars, Almaty Star, Sugar Hill Babe, Faustus, Roach Power.
Prominent stalkers:
- Getreadytorumble, Rhythm N Hooves, Lil Guff, Glamorous Breeze.
Hold-up types:
- Star Chorus, King’s Call.
⚡ Prediction – This is a high-pressure 5f with multiple trailblazers. Expect sub-10s first furlong pace. Likely collapse in the final 100y → advantage to mid/high drawn stalkers with a finishing kick.
4. Form & Fitness Snapshot
- Getreadytorumble – 3yo on the up, C&D win two back, close 2nd at Goodwood on soft; well drawn for a stalking ride.
- Glamorous Breeze – super-consistent, placed in hot Ascot sprints, possibly at her mark ceiling.
- Rhythm N Hooves – cheekpieces back on, big run at Ascot from a handy pitch, looks poised for a peak.
- King Of Stars – blistering early pace, good return run at Ascot, but bounce risk after long layoff.
- King’s Call – ex-Group performer, better over 6f; pace scenario could catch him out.
- Lil Guff – wins when the race falls into her lap, quick ground perfect, big finisher.
- Almaty Star – can ping and burn, but twice found wanting late in hot handicaps; needs to ration effort.
- Sugar Hill Babe – bold frontrunner, C&D 2nd last time, tough to dominate in this pace war.
- Faustus – career revival this summer, but up in class.
- Star Chorus – lightly raced 3yo, Chepstow win was small field; this is a totally different tempo.
- Roach Power – figures suggest well in, but mostly in softer-ground 6f races.
5. Connections / Intent
- Jack Channon / Tom Marquand (Getreadytorumble) – strong strike-rate when combining over sprints.
- Robert Cowell (Rhythm N Hooves / Almaty Star) – master of 5f handicappers, targeting right races.
- Kubler team / Jim Crowley (Lil Guff) – specialist sprint placer.
- Michael Wigham (Roach Power) – low runner volume but lands touch when money arrives.
6. Market Projection
Likely SP range:
- Getreadytorumble – 3/1 to 4/1
- Rhythm N Hooves – 5/1 to 11/2
- Lil Guff – 13/2
- Glamorous Breeze – 7/1 to 8/1
- Almaty Star – 8/1 to 10/1
- Sugar Hill Babe – 10/1 to 12/1
- Rest – 14/1+
7. Angles
- Pace burn-up sets up for late finishers: Rhythm N Hooves, Lil Guff, Getreadytorumble.
- Draw watch – stalls 6–10 attractive on quick ground here.
- Course records – Getreadytorumble 1/1 C&D, Sugar Hill Babe placed here.
8. Private Tissue & Value View
| Horse | Tissue | Value? | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getreadytorumble | 7/2 | ✔ | Progressive 3yo, right draw/run style. |
| Rhythm N Hooves | 5/1 | ✔ | Well-handicapped, perfect pace set-up. |
| Lil Guff | 6/1 | ✔ EW | Durable closer, needs luck in run. |
| Glamorous Breeze | 8/1 | – | Consistent but near ceiling. |
| Almaty Star | 10/1 | – | Early pace threat, may fold. |
| Sugar Hill Babe | 12/1 | – | Hard to dominate here. |
| King Of Stars | 14/1 | – | Needs solo lead to last. |
| Roach Power | 16/1 | ? | Well in on old form, ground doubt. |
| King’s Call | 20/1 | – | Better over 6f. |
| Star Chorus | 25/1 | – | Unproven in hot 5f. |
| Faustus | 33/1 | – | Class ceiling. |
💡 Pro Play – The value cluster is Getreadytorumble, Rhythm N Hooves, and Lil Guff, all drawn to stalk the leaders and pounce late. The race shape screams “collapse”, so I’d be more inclined to back closers at 5/1+ than any of the trailblazers.
Leave a comment