Pace Scenario: An even to fair pace is expected with no dedicated front-runner declared. Tactical positioning will be key. With Deauville’s long straight, horses with a sharp turn of foot and those ridden prominently but efficiently will hold an edge.

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Strongest Contenders:

ASCOLI PICENO (Proven, Top-Class Filly) – Multiple G1 winner from Japan, including the Victoria Mile last time, showing top-class closing speed despite an unsuitably soft surface. Back on faster ground suits ideally, and her Riyadh win over males reads well. Tactically versatile and enters at 4lb less than older males. Major player if pace holds up.

DANCING GEMINI (Progressive) – Second in the Lockinge, ahead of Notable Speech, and possibly unsuited by the dawdling gallop in the Queen Anne. Soft ground suits and is better judged on his prior efforts. Given a break to freshen up and has strong finishing figures when pace is genuine. Should appreciate Deauville’s layout.

THE LION IN WINTER (Promising) – Once a Derby favourite, now re-routed to mile scene after flopping over further. Excellent third in the Jean Prat last time over 7f, staying on strongly. That race was his best effort yet and connections have primed him for this. Still lightly raced and retains untapped potential at this trip.

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Main Dangers:

NOTABLE SPEECH (Proven) – 2000 Guineas and Sussex winner in 2024 but hasn’t quite hit that peak this season. Ran okay in the July Cup but this step back up is ideal. No excuses here tactically, and if he brings his best form, he’s a danger.

DOCKLANDS (Proven at track type) – Won the Queen Anne at Ascot, but was well held next time in a messy race. Has clear talent, especially when able to track a strong gallop. Won’t mind a bit of cut and thrives on straight courses.

ZABIARI (Improving) – Lightly raced and has done well in lesser Group company. Took a big step forward last time at Chantilly, and shapes like a horse ready for top company, though this is a stiff task on figures.

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Interesting Outsiders:

RIDARI (Unexposed 3yo) – French 3yo form has looked solid, and this one wasn’t disgraced in either the Poulains or the French Derby. Can pull hard, but if relaxed early, capable of outrunning his odds.

DIEGO VELAZQUEZ (Class Dropper) – Won a weak G2 at the Curragh but was thrashed in the Queen Anne. On paper, has ability, but needs a career-best and others have stronger form.

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Runner Scores:

• Ascoli Piceno: 9/10 – Proven at the highest level, tactically versatile, acts on ground.
• Dancing Gemini: 8/10 – Profile fits well, will enjoy tempo and straight mile.
• The Lion In Winter: 8/10 – Very interesting now back at a mile, lightly raced, progressive.
• Notable Speech: 7/10 – High-level performer, form just below peak this season.
• Docklands: 7/10 – Needs a pace collapse to thrive, but capable.
• Ridari: 6/10 – Potentially underestimated; solid French 3yo form.
• Zabiari: 6/10 – Improving but has more to find on ratings.
• Diego Velazquez: 5/10 – Rebuilding after setback; ground and tempo may suit.
• King Gold: 4/10 – 7f specialist, vulnerable at this trip in top G1.
• Go To First: 3/10 – Unexposed but Japanese dirt form doesn’t translate here.

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Keep an eye on the market for second-runner improvers and horses fresh off a break.
Watch for late support on Japanese raiders – they’ve been underbet historically in Europe.

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Private Tissue Estimate:

• Ascoli Piceno – 5/2
• The Lion In Winter – 4/1
• Dancing Gemini – 9/2
• Notable Speech – 5/1
• Docklands – 8/1
• Ridari – 14/1
• Zabiari – 16/1
• Diego Velazquez – 20/1
• King Gold – 33/1
• Go To First – 66/1

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Summary + Smart Play:

This looks a high-quality, open Group 1 mile, with the late withdrawal of Rosallion blowing it wide open. Several have claims on peak form, but only a few arrive in top nick.

Ascoli Piceno ticks every box – class, ground, profile, and weight pull. The straight mile suits, and her acceleration can be decisive. Dancing Gemini is a legitimate danger if the pace is sound, while The Lion In Winter may still have a bigger performance to come at this trip.

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Smart Play:

• Win Bet: Ascoli Piceno – Japanese superstar filly with a devastating finish and optimal set-up.
• Each-Way Saver: Dancing Gemini – Ground and race structure could see him bounce back to Lockinge form.