Pace Angles: Likely strong pace. Cracking Gold, Consolidation, and possibly Leadman and Classic all race prominently or press leaders.
Draw Angles: No strong draw bias historically at 7f Newbury on good to firm ground, though middle-to-low draws can be advantageous in strongly-run fields. Draws 1–6 are favoured today.
Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders
Strongest Contenders
Cracking Gold – Proven & progressive. Two fine efforts in strong handicaps, including splitting or beating Great Acclaim twice. Versatile ground-wise, holds form well, and returns to ideal trip with likely pace to aim at. Still ahead of his mark on this evidence. Draw 4 a plus for stalking ride.
Classic – Proven. Ascot and Sandown form reads well and his RPRs are highly consistent. Versatile in terms of pace positioning, but prefers to be ridden with intent. Form at 7f is solid and he’s in top shape. Draw 6 is fine, and running style fits the projected tempo.
Havana Pusey – Proven. Highly consistent and running well in strong company (G3 level). Ran a career-best when second to Royal Velvet and has a potent turn of foot. She can go close if not compromised by hold-up style and wide draw in 10.
Main Dangers
Lou Lou’s Gift – Promising. Lightly raced, still unexposed, and her recent second at Newmarket showed she’s ready to win a big handicap. Travelling sweetly in retained headgear, and Haggas yard is flying. The drop back to 7f with a strong pace is ideal.
Jumby – Proven but risky. Highly rated, but his winless run is lengthy. Still, his recent Newmarket third showed signs of life. Track and trip suit, but he is a hold-up horse with draw 2 needing luck in a likely bunched finish.
Interesting Outsiders
Consolidation – Promising. Lightly raced 3yo who won well earlier in the year. Got lost in the Bunbury Cup but still shaped okay. Draw 7, Rossa Ryan back up, and profile says there’s more to come. Worth monitoring for market support.
Obelix – Inconsistent but capable. Back from a second wind op and won impressively at York. That RPR of 101 puts him close to frame possibilities if he builds on it.
Documenting – Veteran but still useful. Ran to 103 and 102 on his last two starts. Low weight, fast ground and pace collapse would suit him, but age (12) and class ceiling likely find him out.
Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis
- Cracking Gold: 9/10 – Well suited to trip/ground; progressive; ideal draw and pace scenario.
- Classic: 8.5/10 – Solid and versatile; reliable but exposed.
- Havana Pusey: 8/10 – Consistent, Group 3-placed; needs race to fall right due to hold-up style.
- Lou Lou’s Gift: 8.5/10 – Lightly raced improver; likely to be suited by the setup.
- Jumby: 7.5/10 – Well handicapped but risky profile; hold-up risk.
- Consolidation: 7.5/10 – Unexposed; needs luck and clear run; big run possible.
- Obelix: 7/10 – Fragile consistency but capable if right.
- Leadman: 6.5/10 – One-paced profile, may find this too sharp.
- Cogitate: 6.5/10 – High draw and drop in trip are concerns; ran well behind Cracking Gold.
- Wolf Of Badenoch: 6/10 – Needs softer ground and has not progressed since early promise.
- Documenting: 5/10 – Game but unlikely to be up to this level now.
Advice: Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.
Each-Way Angles (12 runners)
- Lou Lou’s Gift (8.5/10) – 4yo filly from top yard; strong recent form.
- Consolidation (7.5/10) – Progressive profile and potential improver.
Private Tissue Estimate
- Cracking Gold – 4/1
- Classic – 6/1
- Lou Lou’s Gift – 13/2
- Havana Pusey – 7/1
- Jumby – 8/1
- Consolidation – 10/1
- Obelix – 12/1
- Cogitate – 14/1
- Wolf Of Badenoch – 20/1
- Leadman – 20/1
- Documenting – 33/1
Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.
Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)
This race sets up for a strong gallop, with multiple pace angles ensuring a fair contest. Cracking Gold stands out as a well-treated, progressive 4yo who’s thriving at 7f and has tactical speed plus finishing strength. Classic is a solid yardstick with form holding up well, but may find a couple better treated. Lou Lou’s Gift brings upside and the setup could unlock her potential.
Smart Play:
- Win: Cracking Gold – thriving 4yo who has improved steadily and is tactically versatile.
- Each-Way Saver: Lou Lou’s Gift – lightly raced and could be better than this mark with Haggas firing.
Leave a comment