TimeWise Chronicles

3.20 Ripon – William Hill / MND Association Great St Wilfrid Handicap

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Class 2 | 6f | 3yo+ | £100,000 | Good ground

  • Pace scenario: Predicted strong to even pace. Likely pace-forcers include Mister Sox (drawn 4), Kodiac Thriller (10), and Prince Of Pillo (16). Pressure early from both flanks, favouring strong closers with track position.
  • Draw angles: Middle-to-high often ideal in big-field Ripon sprints when the ground is good. Watch for pace developing down the middle. Low-drawn hold-ups could struggle.

Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders + Trends

🥇 Strongest Contenders:

  • FIVETHOUSANDTOONE (8/10) – Progressive since joining Tim Easterby. Back-to-back RPRs of 121 and 122 show current peak form. Hold-up type with a potent finish; the strong pace setup and middle draw (6) enhance his chance. Proven, adaptable, and in peak form. Big player.
  • ALZAHIR (8/10) – Sprinter reinvented this summer with wins at Chester, Epsom, and Ascot. Regressed slightly at Goodwood (July 26) but was still 6th of 14 in group. Well drawn in 17 for his prominent style. Progressive profile. Won’t be far away.
  • MISTER SOX (7/10) – 2-2 over Ripon 6f, landed this course’s main trial for this race (4 Aug) from a prominent sit. Tim Easterby stable red-hot. Drawn 4 is not ideal, but he handles this track like a glove. Proven and still with upside.

⚠️ Main Dangers:

  • ROUSING ENCORE (7/10) – Strong-finishing York winner (May), and fair in two of three since. Drawn in 2—far side—may need luck. Timefigure ratings hold up well. Proven at 6f in big-field scenarios. Needs pace to collapse his way.
  • CITY WALK (7/10) – Old Dubai campaigner, now back on turf. Best form on AW, but RPR 123 at Chelmsford shows class. Likely to get cover in stall 3, which tempers enthusiasm. Exposed but talented.
  • NOSTRUM (6/10) – Class angle. Now rated 104, but has run to 120 in Group 3 company. May be using this as a drop-in for confidence. Proven at higher level, but a query at 6f in a big-field handicap. Trainer David O’Meara does well here.

💡 Interesting Outsiders:

  • ROCK OPERA (6/10) – Often finishes fast. 3rd in this race last year. Eyecatcher at York (26 Jul). Form figures of 344332 recently suggest a win is due. Drawn 14, should get a nice tow. Well-handicapped on past efforts.
  • KODIAC THRILLER (6/10) – Lightly raced for age, reliable at this level. 3rd in key Ripon prep (4 Aug) behind Mister Sox and Eye Of Dubai. Might still have more to come. Draw 10 is fine. Promising type who stays this trip well.

Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

  • Fivethousandtoone: 8/10 – Well drawn, in top form, thrives off a strong pace. Ideal scenario.
  • Alzahir: 8/10 – In-form sprinter, track should suit, slight question over draw but no red flags.
  • Mister Sox: 7/10 – Course specialist. Low draw is a concern if pace forms high, but still a big player.
  • Rousing Encore: 7/10 – Fast finisher, needs collapse ahead. Draw might hurt, but not dismissed.
  • City Walk: 7/10 – Classy but turf doubts. Will need luck but capable.
  • Rock Opera: 6/10 – Consistent, drawn well. One to consider for exotics.
  • Kodiac Thriller: 6/10 – Reliable, drawn okay, consistent finisher.
  • Nostrum: 6/10 – Group horse in handicap, but 6f hard to trust. Talent is there.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

Each-Way Angles (16+ runners)

  • ROCK OPERA (14) – Consistent, holding form, drawn well, booking of 7lb claimer boosts his claims.
  • KODIAC THRILLER (10) – Under-the-radar improver. Solid place claims if pace holds up.

Private Tissue Estimate

HorseOdds
Fivethousandtoone6/1
Alzahir13/2
Mister Sox15/2
Rousing Encore10/1
City Walk10/1
Nostrum12/1
Rock Opera14/1
Kodiac Thriller14/1
Field (others)16/1+

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

A highly competitive renewal of the Great St Wilfrid with plenty of solid handicappers and a few potential class droppers. The strong early gallop should set things up for strong finishers coming down the middle of the track.

Smart Play:

  • Win Bet: Fivethousandtoone – In top form, strong-finishing type ideally suited by this scenario.
  • Each-Way Saver: Rock Opera – Track form, finishing kick, and a handy draw could see him run into the frame again.

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