Pace Angles: A modest tempo is likely. Spirit Of Jura and Tralee Girl are the likeliest to press forward, though neither is a habitual front-runner. This suggests a potential even to tactical gallop, possibly suiting those ridden prominently.

Draw Angles: Low-to-middle draws (1–4) historically hold no strong bias over this trip at Newmarket (July), though a patient ride from wide stalls can be tricky if the tempo slackens mid-race.

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Contenders & Angles

🏇 Strongest Contenders:

Orchard Keeper (Roger Varian) – Proven (Score: 9/10)
Comes here in peak form, running a career-best RPR of 94 at Newbury last time, where she saw out the 1m6f trip well. Strong sectionals at Goodwood in June mark her as reliable and effective over staying trips on a quick surface. Drawn low (2), likely prominent, and tactically sound. Roger Varian is 1-7 in the past 14 days (RTF 71%), but this filly is solid and improving.

Tattycoram (Ralph Beckett) – Promising (Score: 8/10)
A good third on handicap debut over 1m4f at Ascot (RPR 92) and shaped like a stayer when third in Listed class on soft. Pedigree and racing style suggest she’ll relish 1m6f. Still unexposed over staying trips. Trainer is in good form (4-25), and she’s drawn to track the pace. Lightly raced with further progression expected.

🔥 Main Dangers:

Umbria (Ed Walker) – Progressive (Score: 8/10)
Runner-up behind Orchard Keeper at Newbury last time, producing a matching RPR of 94. That confirmed stamina and turf suitability. Effective from a tracking position, well drawn in 3, and her tactical flexibility is a plus in a race lacking a guaranteed pace. She’s held her form well this season.

Spirit Of Jura (Charlie Johnston) – Proven (Score: 7/10)
Three-time AW winner this year, but not just a synthetics horse – showed she handles turf with a front-running win at Hamilton (13f, good). Tactical angle from stall 7 means she might control matters early. Slight class riser but hard to knock her attitude.

👀 Interesting Outsiders:

Moon Angel (Stuart Williams) – Improving (Score: 7/10)
Improved markedly since joining this yard. Not beaten far at this level on soft last time, and her win at Salisbury in June (RPR 90) showed staying power. Drying ground okay. Strong closer, but hold-up risk applies, especially if the pace steadies.

Tralee Girl (Michael Bell) – Progressive (Score: 6.5/10)
Low mileage 3yo on the upgrade. Fourth in a decent Southwell handicap last time where she made the running and stuck on. Good previous RPRs of 91/89 suggest there’s more to come. Light weight and tactically versatile.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Summary:

• Orchard Keeper: 9/10 – Track, trip, and ground all ideal. Well drawn.
• Tattycoram: 8/10 – Promising stayer, but slight unknown at full trip.
• Umbria: 8/10 – Reliable and handles today’s test.
• Spirit Of Jura: 7/10 – Straightforward and may control pace.
• Moon Angel: 7/10 – Likes a strong pace; could get caught out if steady.
• Tralee Girl: 6.5/10 – Unexposed, but class rise a question.
• Lalique: 5/10 – Looks a stayer but needs to find more against seasoned fillies.
  Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
  Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles (8+ Runners)

With 8 runners, each-way terms apply. Spirit Of Jura and Moon Angel are viable each-way alternatives to the front pair, especially if the pace holds up or collapses, respectively.

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Private Tissue Estimate (Fair Odds):

• Orchard Keeper – 3/1
• Tattycoram – 7/2
• Umbria – 5/1
• Spirit Of Jura – 7/1
• Moon Angel – 10/1
• Tralee Girl – 12/1
• Lalique – 16/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Smart Play

This is a quality staying fillies’ handicap with a blend of exposed, battle-hardened mares and lightly raced, improving 3yos. Orchard Keeper brings the best combination of form, fitness, and tactical profile. Tattycoram and Umbria are the main threats, both unexposed over staying trips. The pace scenario may favour prominent racers over hold-up types.

Smart Play:

• Win: Orchard Keeper
• Each-Way Saver: Spirit Of Jura

Both are tactically suited, reliable in recent runs, and offer fair value based on private odds.