3:07 Doncaster – Believe Money Group Handicap (Class 5, 7f 6y, 4yo+)

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Going: Good to Firm | Track: Straight, galloping | Race Value: £8,400
Pace Angles: Likely even to strong pace. Lumenbourg, Riot, and Mister Mojito typically race handily, while Commander Of Life and Age Of Baroque are late closers.
Draw Angles: No strong high or low draw bias historically at Doncaster over 7f. With even pace, mid to high draws (5–9) may enjoy slight tactical flexibility.


Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders

Mister MojitoProven & Progressive
Rated 74. Steadily progressive this term with two turf wins and a C&D strike off 59 earlier in the year. Three-time winner under Brandon Wilkie and arguably unlucky on penultimate run. Trainer notes he’s improving and ground suits. Drawn 6 is ideal, and tactical pace map suits his pressing style. Leading contender.

Commander Of LifeProven
Reliable turf form, beat Riot here in July and continues to perform consistently. Needs a strong gallop to come late, and he gets that here. Form franked; now 3lb above winning mark but still competitive. Drawn 7. Big player if delivered late.

Age Of BaroquePromising
Lightly raced with form upside. C&D fifth off today’s mark when back from AW win. Fast-ground C&D form solid, and tongue-tie has helped. With SDS booked and strong pace to aim at, he looks the most unexposed runner in the field.

RiotExposed, Needs Luck
C&D form solid (5112), but holds up style and reliance on race shape leaves him needing things to drop perfectly. Ground ideal. Draw 9 OK but wide-running style demands patience. Hold-up risk.

LumenbourgProgressive Handicapper
Improved since visor applied. C&D winner and keeps running well in similar races. Now off career-high mark and meets better horses here. Won’t get soft lead. Archie Young rides 5lb claim. Each-way possible if progressing again.

Interesting Outsider:
Twilight DiamondLightly raced and hinted at ability; draw 1 not ideal, but improving 4yo from in-form yard. Last two efforts hinted at promise. Strong pace will help.


Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

  • Mister Mojito: 9/10 – Ideal trip, ground, draw; strong seasonal profile.
  • Commander Of Life: 8/10 – Needs pace collapse; race sets up well.
  • Age Of Baroque: 8/10 – Unexposed, SDS, track/trip fine.
  • Riot: 7/10 – C&D form, but exposed and needs luck.
  • Lumenbourg: 7/10 – Improving but needs career-best.
  • Twilight Diamond: 6/10 – Potential dark horse, but raw.
  • Cliffcake: 5/10 – Well-handicapped but inconsistent.
  • King David: 5/10 – AW form only; turf doubts linger.
  • Bear Force One: 3/10 – Well below best, regressing.
  • Thapa Vc: 3/10 – One-paced and better on soft.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.


Each-Way Angles (12 Runners)

Lumenbourg – Progressive in this grade and trip. Archie Young’s 5lb claim helpful.
Age Of Baroque – Unexposed; could be better than his mark with SDS aboard.


Private Tissue Estimate (Fair Odds)

  • Mister Mojito – 7/2
  • Commander Of Life – 9/2
  • Age Of Baroque – 11/2
  • Riot – 13/2
  • Lumenbourg – 15/2
  • Twilight Diamond – 10/1
  • Cliffcake – 14/1
  • King David – 16/1
  • Thapa Vc – 20/1
  • Bear Force One – 25/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.


Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

This shapes as a fair, competitive Class 5 with several familiar types meeting unexposed improvers. A true-run 7f on fast ground should see class and finishing speed prevail. Mister Mojito is holding form and gets all ideal conditions. Commander Of Life has tactical risks but wins when it all falls into place. Age Of Baroque has upside and a top rider.


Smart Play:
Win BetMister Mojito (Proven and well-handicapped under ideal setup)
Each-Way SaverAge Of Baroque (Promising 4yo, unexposed on turf, solid recent figures)

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