4.30 Tramore – McCarthy’s Irish Bar Lexington Handicap Chase (2m6f, Good) | €20,000

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Pace Angles & Draw Bias

This looks a steadily run race with several mid-pack and hold-up types; no habitual front-runner is present, although Wine An Dine and Tullyveery Lad could race handily. Tramore’s tight, right-handed track and uphill finish often reward tactical positioning, and horses off the pace may struggle unless the field over-races. Being prominent early is an advantage.


Strongest Contenders & Main Dangers

Wine An DineProgressive type for Gordon Elliott who is beginning to deliver on earlier promise over fences. Runner-up in a deeper race at Down Royal (Apr) over further, showing stamina and tenacity. His RPR of 123 is among the highest in the field and he’s now eased slightly in class. Blinkers remain, and any rain would further suit. Well-treated off 110 and looks poised to strike.

Gabriel RangerPromising chaser, progressive profile with good effort to win at Kilbeggan (May) and shaping better than result last time in a deep Galway handicap hurdle. Step up in trip is ideal, and Danny Mullins booked. Ground/track/trip all suit; just needs a strong pace to bring his stamina into play.

Tullyveery LadProven and remarkably consistent through the summer. Well-handicapped on old form and a dual winner over fences. Runner-up latest in a better race, but a stone to find with the principals on ratings. Needs a well-run race but is thriving. Reliable.

Hand Over FistProgressive, lightly raced this campaign, and looks to be brought along with purpose. His mid-division effort in a decent Kilbeggan handicap was better than the result; shaped as though still ahead of his mark (107). Blinkers remain. Jockey booking notable for yard. A danger.


Interesting Outsiders

Ik’s ManProven Tramore performer and former winner of this race. Slightly below form recently but shaped well at Kilbeggan in May. Well-handicapped again and trainer Terence O’Brien has won 4 of last 5 renewals. Likely to be primed for today and worth noting any market support.

Lake ChadTrack specialist (3 chase wins at Tramore) and while recent form mixed, he’s dangerous to discount at this venue. Running style suits a steadily run race and gets in off a workable mark. Strong place chance if back to his spring form.


Runner Scores & Suitability

  • Wine An Dine: 9/10 – Strong tactical fit, proven stamina, conditions suit.
  • Gabriel Ranger: 8/10 – Trip/ground ideal; still open to progress.
  • Tullyveery Lad: 7/10 – Consistent; well-treated but not much upside.
  • Hand Over Fist: 7/10 – Improving profile, sharp track should suit.
  • Ik’s Man: 6/10 – Trainer target; proven at track; can go well if bouncing back.
  • Lake Chad: 6/10 – Course-specialist; exposed but capable here.
  • Rexem: 5/10 – Struggled in UK; ground/track may help but looks regressive.
  • The Dasher Conway: 4/10 – Lost form; may prefer hurdles at this stage.
  • Arrycan: 3/10 – Regressing, recent heavy defeats.
  • Big Island: 3/10 – No solid chase form; likely outclassed.
  • Starzov: 2/10 – Out of sorts; form has collapsed.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.

Watch out for in-form chasers returning quickly; they can be hot.


Each-Way Angles (11 runners)

  • Lake Chad (Course specialist) – solid place claims at a price.
  • Ik’s Man (Race history angle) – back at his best track for a yard that targets this.

Private Tissue Estimate (Odds)

  • Wine An Dine – 7/2
  • Gabriel Ranger – 5/1
  • Tullyveery Lad – 13/2
  • Hand Over Fist – 13/2
  • Lake Chad – 9/1
  • Ik’s Man – 10/1
  • Rexem – 14/1
  • The Dasher Conway – 16/1
  • Arrycan – 20/1
  • Big Island – 25/1
  • Starzov – 33/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.


Summary & Smart Play

This looks a race where Wine An Dine has plenty in his favour – form, trip, profile, and trainer intent. Gabriel Ranger also appeals as a steadily progressive chaser for whom this intermediate trip looks ideal.

Smart Play:

  • Win: Wine An Dine – strong run LTO, now in calmer waters; everything looks set up.
  • Each-Way Saver: Lake Chad – multiple C&D wins and sneaky well-handicapped back at his favourite track.

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