1. Race Title, Conditions, Pace & Draw Angles
Race: 4.37 Curragh – Comer Group International Irish St. Leger Trial Stakes (Group 3)
Trip/Surface: 1m6f (14f), Turf, Good
Eligibility: 3yo+ | WFA terms | Group-race penalties apply
Pace Angle: Expect an even to strong gallop. Leinster has made the running in handicaps, Uxmal and Puppet Master are forward-going, and Dallas Star can be handy. There should be no lack of tempo.
Draw Angle: Over this trip at the Curragh, the draw is neutral, with no material bias.
2. Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders
Strongest Contenders
- Uxmal (J P O’Brien) – Lightly raced for his age and arrives in top form after dominant staying wins at Killarney and Royal Ascot. Strong through the line over 2m1f and effective at the Curragh. Has earned this step up to Group company. Progressive.
- Absurde (W P Mullins) – Genuine Group-class stayer on both codes. Fifth in the Melbourne Cup and winner of the 2024 County Hurdle. Solid reappearance at York and has run well here before. Stamina is assured; needs to settle. Proven.
- Puppet Master (A P O’Brien) – Useful 3yo who won the Lingfield Derby Trial. Underwhelmed since, but retains potential on this first attempt beyond 1m4f. Weight-for-age advantage is significant. Promising, but stamina must be proven.
Main Dangers
- Leinster (J P O’Brien) – Won a Curragh handicap over 12f and has shaped as though further will suit. Stayed on well in the Ascot Stakes and could improve again over this trip. Not fully exposed. Progressive.
- Dallas Star (A Murray) – Better known over 10-12f but gave Kyprios a scare in the Saval Beg. Weakened late over 2m, suggesting 14f may be his absolute limit. Needs to prove stamina in this company. Promising, with stamina query.
Hold-Up Risk
- No clear hold-up specialists, but Absurde has sometimes been shuffled back in big fields and can be vulnerable if the tempo drops mid-race.
Timeform Trends & Comments
- Uxmal’s Ascot win was a career-best and he shaped like a Group-class stayer.
- Absurde “settled well and jumped brilliantly” when last seen over hurdles, suggesting headspace is improved.
- Puppet Master still unexposed beyond 1m4f and has the potential to improve, but stamina remains speculative.
3. Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis
| Horse | Score | Suitability (Track/Trip/Going) |
|---|---|---|
| Uxmal | 9/10 | Ideal conditions; proven stamina; solid at this level |
| Absurde | 8.5/10 | Strong stayer; needs to settle; enjoys this trip/ground |
| Puppet Master | 7.5/10 | Untested at trip; potential WFA edge; unsure on stamina |
| Leinster | 7/10 | Upwardly mobile; not yet proven at Group level |
| Dallas Star | 6.5/10 | May not see it out; 12f+ has stretched him before |
Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.
4. Each-Way Angles
Not applicable – field size is below eight runners.
5. Private Tissue Estimate (Fair Odds)
| Horse | Tissue Price |
|---|---|
| Uxmal | 9/4 |
| Absurde | 3/1 |
| Puppet Master | 9/2 |
| Leinster | 7/1 |
| Dallas Star | 10/1 |
Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.
6. Summary & Smart Play
Summary:
This looks a prime setup for Uxmal, who is in the form of his life, handles the track, and has Group-race substance behind him now. Absurde remains a real threat if he gets cover and settles into a rhythm, while Puppet Master could find a chunk of improvement with the WFA pull—but it’s a guess whether he stays.
Smart Play
- Win Bet: Uxmal – fit, progressive, and tactically versatile for a race that should unfold to suit.
- Cover Bet: Absurde (win only) – his high-class staying form and tactical adaptability mean he cannot be discounted.
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