Pace & Draw Angles

This staying handicap lacks a true front-runner, with several runners typically settled mid-division or held up. Even pace expected, but Pontefract’s stiff uphill finish often turns tactical contests into tests of stamina. Draws are of minor importance over this extended trip, though those drawn inside have slight early positioning benefits – especially Carlton (drawn 2) and Merrijig (3).

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Strongest Contenders & Main Dangers

Carlton – Proven winner with cross-code form; highly reliable with excellent AW/hurdles crossover conditioning. Most recent turf second behind a progressive filly was a good effort. Stays well, travels fluently, and responds when asked. Well drawn and looks primed. RPR of 75 at this trip is among the best in field.

Cosmic Soul – Progressive and on the up since fitted with a visor. Broke maiden last time, having placed on previous three. Sectionals hint at late pace and determination. Still unexposed over staying trips and tactically versatile. Strong finisher, and this stiffer test could suit.

Merrijig – Proven and often underrated; outpaced latest but had previously won with authority at Ripon. Best form when strong pace materialises, so may be slightly pace-compromised here. Track should suit with uphill finish, and 7f Ripon win showed stamina reserves.

Kentucky River – Promising 3yo staying type. Solid 2nd at Doncaster (16.5f) on first try over a trip, bred for further (Camelot x 11f+ dam line). A 77 RPR on that effort looks good. Weight-for-age concession remains significant here. Slightly raw still, but capable of more.

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Interesting Outsiders

Red Force One – Proven veteran who shocked in weaker Musselburgh event earlier in month. Rarely runs two alike and stamina over this far on Flat remains unproven. That said, has hurdle wins at extreme trips and handles Ponte well. Cannot be dismissed entirely.

Al Sayah – Crossover interest from jumps, where she’s thrived. Successful dual-purpose type who’s looked progressive this summer. However, hasn’t run on Flat since 2024 and current mark looks stiff relative to known Flat form. Big-field hurdles experience may help but hard to weigh confidently.

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Runner Scores & Suitability

• Carlton: 9/10 – Excellent profile; proven stayer, good draw, in-form yard.
• Cosmic Soul: 8/10 – Late developer, in form, stamina likely to suit.
• Kentucky River: 8/10 – WFA advantage, unexposed, looks ready to progress.
• Merrijig: 7/10 – Needs stronger pace, but reliable and honest.
• Al Sayah: 6/10 – In-form hurdler; unsure if Flat mark is lenient.
• Red Force One: 6/10 – Exposed but well-handicapped and quirky.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.

Watch out for in-form stayers returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles (7 runners)

No each-way angle advised unless additional runners are declared on the day.

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Private Tissue Estimate (Odds)

• Carlton – 5/2
• Cosmic Soul – 4/1
• Kentucky River – 4/1
• Merrijig – 11/2
• Al Sayah – 13/2
• Red Force One – 10/1
• Others – 14/1+

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary & Smart Play

This looks a well-matched contest, but Carlton brings consistent, cross-code stamina and race fitness into a modest affair. He’s tactically well positioned from a low draw and looks solid. Cosmic Soul and Kentucky River are the improvers but may need everything to fall right tactically.

Smart Play:

• Win: Carlton – rock-solid form, strong traveller, and proven in this grade.
• No Each-Way Saver – field too small.