Race Title and Conditions + Pace Angles + Draw Angles

A competitive 3yo+ Class 4 handicap over 1m4f on good to firm ground at Newbury. This race features a mix of progressive 3-y-os and exposed older handicappers.

Pace: Moderate pace likely. Respiro Solitario and Al Wasl Storm have made the running before, but neither are habitual frontrunners. Tactical position may prove key.

Draw Angles: Low-to-mid draws historically fare slightly better at this trip at Newbury in small fields; Respiro Solitario (1), Raintown (2), and Al Wasl Storm (3) are best drawn.

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Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders + Trends/Timeform Comments

Strongest Contenders:

• Byblos (Proven/Progressive) – Trained by Gosden and arrives off a wide-margin maiden win at Southwell. Bred to improve further at this trip (Frankel out of a 9f winner), his earlier form in turf handicaps reads better than it first appears. Still unexposed at 1m4f and shaped as though this is ideal. Big player with Colin Keane booked.
• Renato (Progressive) – Solid profile; second at Southwell last time in a race that wasn’t run to suit. Cheekpieces retained, and drops in grade from competitive Class 2s. Has kept strong company and looks well-handicapped off 84 based on his Haydock third. Hollie Doyle is a positive booking.

Main Dangers:

• Shahbaz (Proven) – Career-best RPR 100 and bounced back to form winning over C&D in a steadily run race. Jim Crowley retains the ride and he’s now back on a winnable mark. No margin for error off 73, but well drawn and in-form yard.
• Houstonn (Proven) – Has held form reasonably in stronger events. His Ascot third in July off 85 gives him claims, and while he can be one-paced late, he’s proven over C&D and looks solid if unspectacular.

Interesting Outsiders:

• Respiro Solitario (Promising) – Lightly raced and improving with racing; close third at Chester despite racing up in class. Drawn 1, handy type, and receives a significant weight allowance. Progressing and still has upside from 67.
• Al Wasl Storm (Promising) – Two Group 1 runs sandwiched a maiden win at Chester over this trip. Clearly held in regard early on and now tries handicaps off 86. May find this calmer waters more suitable, but remains a work in progress mentally.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

• Byblos: 9/10 – Well suited to the track, trip, and conditions. Unexposed and well-bred. Has upside.
• Renato: 8/10 – Well-handicapped on previous form; 1m4f looks optimal now.
• Shahbaz: 7.5/10 – In form and back on a winning mark. Slight stamina doubts under pressure in strong-run races.
• Houstonn: 7/10 – Consistent, but might be vulnerable to better handicapped rivals.
• Respiro Solitario: 7/10 – Improving; may be on the right side of the handicapper still.
• Al Wasl Storm: 6.5/10 – Shaped with promise early in season; needs to re-establish upward trajectory.
• Raintown: 5/10 – Patchy turf record; recent win slightly flattered by pace collapse.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles (8 Runners)

• Respiro Solitario – Weighted to be competitive, back in calmer waters after running well upped in class. Trainer in form, and his style suits the likely tempo.

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Private Tissue Estimate

• Byblos – 5/2
• Renato – 4/1
• Shahbaz – 6/1
• Houstonn – 13/2
• Respiro Solitario – 15/2
• Al Wasl Storm – 10/1
• Raintown – 14/1
• Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

This is a well-contested Class 4 with unexposed 3-y-os holding a distinct edge. Byblos has the profile of a well-handicapped improver stepping up in trip, representing top connections. Renato has solid back-form and shaped well on penultimate run, while Respiro Solitario continues to progress and gets a weight pull with several.

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Smart Play

• Win Bet: Byblos – Looks ready to strike in handicaps over this trip. Frankel pedigree and Gosden team signals intent.
• Each-Way Saver: Respiro Solitario – 3yo with upside, strong run last time in higher grade, gets weight and a good draw.