1. Race Details, Pace & Draw Assessment

Race Title & Conditions
William Hill Hope For MND Fillies’ Handicap – 1m 4f 10y on turf (Good), Class 5, for 3yo+ fillies & mares rated 51–70 (also open to those rated ≤50), with weight-for-age and penalties as specified.

Pace Scenario

• Churchella typically races from off the pace, showing strong late sectionals.
• Dandy’s Angel often stalls and stays on late.
• Phaedra tends to go forward from the front.
• Shielas Well can lead or press from the front.
• Spring Chorus preferring to race prominently.

Given this mix, an even to strong gallop looks likely—there are true front‑runners and hold‑up types in the field.

Draw Angles

• Light draw (Churchella from 1) could be an advantage if able to tuck in.
• Mid‑draws (Phaedra 2, Spring Chorus 4, Dandy’s Angel 5) handle various profiles; none appear strongly compromised.

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2. Key Contenders

Strongest Contenders

• Phaedra (3y) – Progressive filly who’s won her last two starts, including over middle distances. Proven, improving.
• Churchella (5yo) – Holding form at this trip with a classy staying style; proven performer up the weights.
• Shielas Well (3y) – Also a proven winner at this trip, in form (racing to form 64% in the last 14 days).

Main Dangers

• Spring Chorus (5yo) – Shows decent form and staying credentials; a competitive stable.
• Dandy’s Angel (8yo) – Veteran with C&D wins and stayers aptitude—each‑way chance if handling pace and ground.

Interesting Outsiders

• Given there are only five runners (based on data), traditional each‑way depth is limited. Not many outsiders with winning profiles in this small field.

Trends/Timeform Comments

• Phaedra is progressive, bidding for a hat-trick, and has straightforward tactics. Sean Levey comments: “…nobody wanted to take me on.”
• Churchella retains a consistent pattern climbing the ranks; still holding at top form.
• Shielas Well has been holding her form well and winning or placing recently.

Hold‑up Risk

• Dandy’s Angel is a typical hold-up mare; given only 5 runners, she could get too far back—may need luck in running.

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3. Runners’ Scores & Suitability

Horse	Score (/10)	Suitability Summary
Phaedra	9/10	Proven over this trip, progressive, handles Good ground well.
Churchella	8/10	Solid form, stays 1m4f well, consistent in this grade.
Shielas Well	7/10	Fits distance, in good form, proven at Ripon and staying trips.
Spring Chorus	6/10	Some promise but less exposed; recent form on slower ground.
Dandy’s Angel	5/10	Experienced but less effective this season; may suffer if held up at rear.

Key Advisory Notes:

• “Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.”
• “Watch out for in‑form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.”
  (Here, no horses are obviously returning from long layoff or sprinting back.)

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4. Each-Way Angles

With only 5 runners, each-way betting isn’t applicable (requires ≥ 8 runners), so none provided.

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5. Private Tissue Estimate (Estimated Odds)

Based purely on form, class, and progression:

• Phaedra – ~7/4 (2.75‑1)
• Churchella – ~4/1 (4.0‑1)
• Shielas Well – ~6/1
• Spring Chorus – ~10/1
• Dandy’s Angel – ~12/1

(Market watch advised for any late drift or support)

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6. Summary & “Smart Play”

Summary
This small-field contest shapes up as a duel between the in-form sprightly Phaedra, bidding for a hat-trick, and the consistently improving Churchella, with staying class at this trip. Shielas Well looks best of the rest, with Spring Chorus and Dandy’s Angel offering potential value but facing more questions.

Smart Play

• Win Selection: Phaedra – progressive, in top form, tactically versatile, and has the pace to dominate this field.
• Each-way Saver (conceivably): Churchella – proven stayer, consistent at this trip, and likely to hit the line strongly.

Both are justified by form trends—Phaedra trailing off the front feet of the field, Churchella stalking despite racing off the pace, and Shielas Well as a backup at bigger odds if one wants to tread carefully.