Race Title and Conditions + Pace Angles + Draw Angles:

4.45 Catterick – Happy Birthday Mark Blair Handicap (Class 6, 0-65), 7f 6y, Good to Firm

• Pace Scenario: Even to solid gallop expected. Multiple pace pressers likely: Langholm, Saisons d’Or, Miakoda, and Coconut Bay have all made the running recently. Koji and Emerald Army can also race prominently.
• Draw Angles: Low-middle draws (stalls 1–5) have a slight advantage over 7f at Catterick on good-firm. However, with pace across the track, draw bias may be marginal.

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Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders + Trends/Timeform Comments:

Strongest Contenders:

• Miakoda – Progressive. 3 wins in 2025, well-suited by 7f with the visor proving effective. Strong form profile (RPR 69, 67, 69 last three runs), races prominently but can settle. Pat Cosgrave retains the ride. Draw 11 is a slight negative but tactical pace mitigates.
• Coconut Bay – Proven. 3 wins from last 5, including 2 C&D victories. Versatile pace-wise, and thrives on a sound surface. Though below form last two starts, excuses exist. Returns to ideal C&D. Stall 1 a positive for her racing style.
• Emerald Army – Progressive. Form reads well in context: 2 C&D wins this year, most recent win on soft, but best on good ground. Well-handicapped still on 60. Draw 10 slightly tricky but likes to sit just off the leaders.

Main Dangers:

• Patontheback – Proven. Well-handicapped veteran, bolted up last time at Musselburgh, is 2-3 at Catterick. Needs pace to collapse but consistent when things fall right. Drawn 7, can tuck in.
• Travis – Promising type in this grade. Inconsistent overall but a 7f winner two back and has shaped better than result since. David Allan rides. Draw 3 ideal for prominent tactics.

Interesting Outsiders:

• Langholm – Proven front-runner. Dictated and won here latest (C&D), has history of bouncing when pressured but gets ideal track again. Wide draw (12) slight concern, but if he crosses and gets soft lead, very dangerous.
• Groundsman – Unexposed. Only 9 career starts, some okay efforts in better class, and looks ready for 7f again. Still learning but should appreciate step back up in trip.

Trends/Timeform Highlights:

• Emerald Army and Coconut Bay both three-time winners at Catterick.
• Miakoda noted in multiple Timeform notebooks for resilience and race attitude.
• Langholm quotes suggest he’s at peak when allowed a lead here.
• Patontheback 2-3 over C&D – a stat worth noting for in-running punters.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:

• Miakoda: 8.5/10 – Well-suited, still improving, strong closing effort type.
• Coconut Bay: 8/10 – Suited to C&D, well drawn, needs clean trip.
• Emerald Army: 7.5/10 – Well treated, in-form yard, needs to settle early.
• Patontheback: 7/10 – Suited to track, a bounce possible but handles the grade.
• Travis: 7/10 – Still fairly treated, prefers this trip and ground.
• Langholm: 6.5/10 – Vulnerable to late closers, but dangerous if dominating.
• Groundsman: 6.5/10 – Unexposed, track could suit, wants pace to chase.
• Saisons d’Or: 6/10 – Consistent old stager, unlikely to improve further.
• Koji: 6/10 – Patchy profile, career-high mark, but strong last-time winner.
• The Green Man: 5.5/10 – Class dropper, but little recent spark.
• Reputation: 5/10 – 12yo, not disgraced of late, but lacks killer finish.
• Pink Petunia: 4/10 – Little to recommend in turf form.

“Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.“
“Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.“

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Each-Way Angles (12 runners):

• Travis – Still fairly treated, has tactical pace, each-way at a likely double-figure price.
• Langholm – Can’t be left out of the frame with ideal lead scenario.
• Patontheback – Reliable in this class, may reward each-way faith.

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Private Tissue Estimate:

• Miakoda – 7/2
• Coconut Bay – 5/1
• Emerald Army – 6/1
• Patontheback – 7/1
• Travis – 8/1
• Langholm – 10/1
• Groundsman – 12/1
• Koji – 14/1
• Saisons d’Or – 16/1
• Reputation – 20/1
• The Green Man – 25/1
• Pink Petunia – 33/1

“Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.“

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play):

This is a well-contested 0-65 with multiple front-runners, which could set it up for a closer. Miakoda is the class and form horse, arriving off a career-best and thriving under Cosgrave. The Catterick-loving Coconut Bay is a serious threat dropping back into ideal conditions. Emerald Army is respected back at his favoured trip and surface.

Smart Play:

• Win Selection: Miakoda – peaking at the right time, proven with tactical speed and resilience.
• Each-Way Saver: Travis – shaping up well, and 7f with a prominent sit gives him a chance to place again