Surface: Standard to Slow (Polytrack) | Pace Projection: Even-to-Steady – No guaranteed pace angle.
Draw Bias: Historically low-to-middle draws slightly favoured at 1m around Kempton.

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Contenders and Analysis

Strongest Contender – BIZOU (Jonathan Portman, Rob Hornby) – Progressive

Upwardly mobile 3yo with solid course form. Posted a strong third here in May (1L behind), then ran with credit behind Coeur Jaune at Leicester. Her RPR of 69 is among the best in the field and she’s run well in steadily-run races – tactical speed a plus here. Still lightly raced (5 runs), and breeding suggests 1m suits. Major player if getting a clear run from stall 5.

Main Danger – THE NEW BAY PEARL (Roger Varian, Aidan Keeley) – Promising

Suffered interference on turf but bounced back well at Kempton in May with a fast-finishing third. Proven over course and trip and one of few lightly raced improvers in this field. Trainer operating at 67% rtf and this looks a logical target. Drawn widest (stall 8) but strong finisher who’ll need a gap late.

Live Outsider – THUNDERING BREEZE (Gary & Josh Moore, Ashley Lewis 7lb) – Unexposed

Form figures not flattering but two runs at this track were full of promise, especially her effort in November (RPR 68). Gets 7lb off with Ashley Lewis booked, and pedigree is strong for AW mile trips. Will need luck but worth noting as a big improver if things fall right.

Interesting – TUESDAYS CHILD (George Boughey, Billy Loughnane) – Unproven

Smart pedigree and one standout RPR (71) from Southwell in April. Disappointed since and reported irregular heartbeat in latest. Big stable and good booking in Billy Loughnane, but must bounce back.

Others:

• Fast Bullet – Holding form well but may want further now; tricky draw.
• Dollyana – Competitive but looks vulnerable late; drawn 10.
• Bayadere – Showed little since returning; back on AW interesting but risky.
• Tronido – Flatlining; inconsistent. Best ignored.

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Runner Scores and Suitability

• Bizou – 8.5/10 – Well-suited to trip/surface. Drawn right. Fit and improving.
• The New Bay Pearl – 8/10 – Close form here, classy profile. Late closer risk.
• Thundering Breeze – 7/10 – Value play with 7lb off. Capable.
• Tuesdays Child – 6.5/10 – Risk/reward profile; fair draw.
• Fast Bullet – 6/10 – Bit one-paced; may need more pace/longer trip.
• Dollyana – 5.5/10 – Has ability but draw/pace concerns.
• Bayadere – 4.5/10 – Untrustworthy profile; hard to fancy on recent form.
• Tronido – 4/10 – Form declining, tactical fit questionable.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form fillies returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles

11 runners – each-way terms apply (3 places).

• Thundering Breeze – Each-way at a price with 7lb claim.
• Tuesdays Child – Worth chancing if drifting and signs of support re-emerge.

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Private Tissue Estimate (Odds)

• Bizou – 3/1
• The New Bay Pearl – 7/2
• Thundering Breeze – 11/2
• Tuesdays Child – 13/2
• Fast Bullet – 8/1
• Dollyana – 10/1
• Others – 14/1+

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary and Smart Play

Competitive fillies’ handicap where several 3yos offer upside. The race should be run at an even tempo, which should favour tactically sharp runners who can sit midfield or close up.

Smart Play:

• Win Selection: Bizou – Well-drawn improver with solid AW form.
• Each-Way Saver: Thundering Breeze – Well-handicapped and shaped well at Kempton; big run possible if breaking smartly.

Expect a bunched finish – track position could prove vital late on.