Race Conditions, Pace & Stamina Profile:
A 0-100 Class 5 handicap chase over a stamina-sapping 3m3½f on good to firm ground. Race should unfold at a steady to even gallop, as there are very few habitual front-runners; Jony Max and Eightytwo Team may be forward early, but neither sets a relentless tempo. That suggests a tactical race where stamina and race fitness will be vital. Stratford’s sharp finish places some emphasis on tactical speed, even over staying trips.
Strongest Contenders:
- Summerleaze – Progressive (8/10)
Has taken off since joining Olly Murphy. Three wins from five, including over hurdles at this track. Her chase debut last time didn’t go to plan, but she had a valid excuse. Ground, trip and Sean Bowen are all positives. If bouncing back, she holds a solid chance off a workable mark. - Jony Max – Proven (7/10)
Capable stayer with solid form in similar contests last season, including wins and places at Warwick and Taunton. Did shape better than bare result at Musselburgh and Taunton in the winter and remains on a fair mark. Disappointed latest, but capable of bouncing back, especially if allowed a lead. - Prince Cleni – Unreliable but capable (6/10)
Erratic profile but stays very well and holds a 3-3 record over C&D. Faller two starts back but had shaped nicely behind Harjo prior. Still relatively unexposed at this trip and was backed on occasion. Danger if jumping fluently and in the mood.
Main Dangers:
- Eightytwo Team – Inconsistent (5/10)
Resurgent this summer, winning twice, including last time in a weak race. Hard to trust fully, but on a going day can plug on tenaciously. Suspect her ceiling may be near, and she’s now 2lb above her highest winning mark. - My Girl Katie – Progressive (6/10)
Improved form since switching to fences, scoring comfortably here in July. Ran well in defeat under a penalty next time, form franked. Stamina a slight concern, but she’s dangerous if she sees out the trip. - Miami Jim – Unexposed (4/10)
Still learning the ropes but showed something at Southwell in February. Pulled up since and fitness must be taken on trust. Not dismissed for late each-way money in a very weak affair, but plenty to prove.
Interesting Outsiders:
None particularly fit the profile for upgrading – Prince Cleni is the most notable potential “bounce-back” type due to his C&D record.
Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:
- Summerleaze: 8/10 – Trip will suit; ignore latest, back at her track with Bowen.
- Jony Max: 7/10 – Hard to knock when in rhythm; won’t mind ground.
- Prince Cleni: 6/10 – Can bounce back; stamina assured, C&D specialist.
- My Girl Katie: 6/10 – Strong recent form; question over extended stamina.
- Eightytwo Team: 5/10 – Needs everything to go right; risky type.
- Miami Jim: 4/10 – Unproven, but light mileage; may outrun odds.
Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for jumpers in form – back-to-back wins are common at this level.
Each-Way Angles (8+ runners):
With 7 runners declared, no each-way angle applies under standard place terms.
Private Tissue Estimate:
- Summerleaze – 3/1
- Jony Max – 7/2
- Prince Cleni – 9/2
- My Girl Katie – 5/1
- Eightytwo Team – 13/2
- Miami Jim – 10/1
Summary:
This looks a match between proven stayers and newer improvers. Summerleaze has been revitalised under Olly Murphy and could easily resume progress back over hurdles. Jony Max is the most solid of the older brigade, while Prince Cleni‘s Stratford record cannot be ignored if he puts in a clean round.
Smart Play:
- Win: Summerleaze – Returned with excuses on chase debut but holds standout form and yard does well with this type.
- Saver: Jony Max – Consistent in this grade and stays every inch. Ground and race shape to suit.
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