Race Conditions, Pace & Profile Angles:
This is a Category 2 bumper limited to unraced types or previous runners only in NH/INH/French AQPS flat races. The field comprises mostly debutants, with the notable exception of one impressive winner under a penalty. Conditions are fast (good to firm), and the race is likely to feature a steadily-run gallop unless a surprise pacesetter emerges.
Strongest Contender:
- Way Maker – Proven & Promising (8/10)
Bolted up on debut at Bangor by 11 lengths, travelling strongly and quickening away with ease. Out of a Presenting mare from a strong staying family, he impressed with his tactical speed on fast ground. A 7lb penalty applies, but the visual impression suggests he may defy it. Leading claims.
Main Dangers (Debutants with Upward Profiles):
- Chicker – Unraced, Trainer: Fergal O’Brien (6/10)
A typical O’Brien bumper type – well-schooled and fit first time out. The sire Frontiersman hasn’t made a mark yet, but the dam’s side has enough stamina to handle this trip. Market likely informative. - Creeping Tom – Unraced, Trainer: Joe Tizzard (6/10)
By Passing Glance, a noted bumper influence, and the dam side adds some staying power. Jack Powell booked and stable does well in summer jumpers. Well suited by ground and likely to be ready to go. - Victors Spirit – Unraced, Trainer: Neil King (5/10)
Sire Vercingetorix suggests a Flat pedigree, but enough athleticism to act in bumpers. Trainer rarely throws in unfit types. Worth keeping tabs on in the betting. - All About Moi – Unraced, Trainer: Martin Keighley (5/10)
From a good yard for bumpers. Pour Moi gets stayers and NH types. More likely to be a slow burner, but not discounted.
Less Likely / Longer-Term Projects:
- Harbour Haze / Mayo – Both by minor stallions in NH context, and neither yard is prolific in bumpers. Pedigrees suggest longer-term targets.
Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:
- Way Maker: 8/10 – Sets the standard, strong form, handles conditions, penalty should be manageable.
- Chicker: 6/10 – Strong trainer angle, unknown ability, watch market.
- Creeping Tom: 6/10 – Good profile, could be value.
- Victors Spirit: 5/10 – Mixed pedigree, market will tell.
- All About Moi: 5/10 – Might want a test, but place claims.
- Mayo / Harbour Haze: 4/10 – More likely to improve with racing.
Keep an eye on the market for unraced types – especially from O’Brien and Tizzard.
Each-Way Angles (8 Runners):
- Creeping Tom – Each-way at likely double-figure odds. Represents a yard who can ready one, and his profile matches the conditions. Good value to hit the frame.
Private Tissue Estimate:
- Way Maker – 13/8
- Chicker – 4/1
- Creeping Tom – 5/1
- Victors Spirit – 7/1
- All About Moi – 10/1
- Others – 16/1+
Summary:
Way Maker brings a level of proven performance no rival can match, and visually he looked above average. He’s the most likely winner. The debutants from the Fergal O’Brien and Joe Tizzard yards warrant close attention, particularly Creeping Tom, who looks the value each-way play in a field lacking depth.
Smart Play:
- Win: Way Maker – Impressive debut; hard to oppose if repeating.
- Each-Way: Creeping Tom – Ticks boxes for ground, trainer, and profile. Strong place chance, could threaten if favourite underperforms.
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