Pace Angles + Draw Angles:

This looks an even-to-strongly run race, with several pace-pressers and mid-division runners engaged. Kelpie Grey, Aberama Gold, and Sacred Falls are all capable of going forward, while Mythical Phoenix and Taygar typically sit just off the pace.

Draw-wise, low-to-middle is historically fine at this track and trip on good ground. Stalls 1–5 look slightly favoured, particularly if there’s no bias against the far side rail.

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Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders:

Strongest Contenders:

Mythical Phoenix – Proven (9/10):
Holding form well in Class 3 company and unlucky on occasion (e.g., baulked at Ayr in July). Well suited by this trip and has responded well to cheekpieces. Solid speed figures and well-handled by Camacho. Arguably the most reliable in the field.

Kelpie Grey – Progressive (8/10):
Consistently running to form and has improved markedly for Paul Mulrennan. Is thriving with an aggressive ride style. Drawn to attack again and course form is rock solid.

Taygar – Promising (8/10):
2-2 at Ayr, lightly raced, and improving with racing. A strong traveller, she’s versatile ground-wise and finishes well. Tactically uncomplicated despite being tricky pre-race.

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Main Dangers:

Aberama Gold – Proven but Vulnerable (7/10):
Won a big-field York handicap in July but now finds himself above a winning mark again. Races prominently and could get softened up if pressured early. Drawn in 1, which may hem him in if the pace collapses.

Yaaser – Hold-Up Risk (7/10):
Capable of running big races when the gaps open up, but often needs luck. Might have preferred 7f but ran well here over 6f last month. Draw in 7 is fine, but booking of 7lb claimer Lauren Young increases variability.

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Interesting Outsiders:

Pianoforte – Unexposed Handicap Debutant (7/10):
Lightly raced with strong maiden/novice form and shaped like a winner in waiting at Bath. First start in a handicap and no issues with the trip. Could improve again now switched to turf and competitive company.

Sacred Falls – Each-Way Player (6/10):
Consistent sort off this sort of mark, unlucky on occasion and prefers a decent gallop. Will be finishing off well if others overdo it upfront. Has the ability to get involved late.

The Caltonian – Regressive (4/10):
Has course form and ran well here in winter, but recent efforts very underwhelming. Looks regressive and vulnerable despite fair draw.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:

• Mythical Phoenix: 9/10 – Best form in the field; well suited to ground/trip; draw fine.
• Kelpie Grey: 8/10 – Strong recent efforts; effective here; front-runner with excellent course form.
• Taygar: 8/10 – Lightly raced and progressive; 2-2 at Ayr; effective running style.
• Aberama Gold: 7/10 – Form fluctuating; course-suited; now vulnerable at mark.
• Yaaser: 7/10 – Consistent, but needs luck; still capable of landing a place.
• Pianoforte: 7/10 – Unexposed; good closing fractions in novice company; unknown turf ceiling.
• Sacred Falls: 6/10 – In-form mare; holds each-way appeal with strong finishing speed.
• The Caltonian: 4/10 – Form tailed off; blinkers not rekindling spark.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles (8+ Runners):

Sacred Falls and Pianoforte stand out on profile for place potential at likely bigger odds, with the former offering value if they go hard early.

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Private Tissue Estimate:

• Mythical Phoenix – 7/2
• Kelpie Grey – 9/2
• Taygar – 5/1
• Aberama Gold – 6/1
• Pianoforte – 13/2
• Yaaser – 15/2
• Sacred Falls – 9/1
• The Caltonian – 25/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play):

A high-class Class 4 sprint with some depth and pace influence. The top-rated and most consistent performer, Mythical Phoenix, brings the best blend of form, profile, and setup, especially after a strong run in better company. Kelpie Grey and Taygar bring recent, local form and tactical consistency. The unexposed Pianoforte rates the joker in the pack on handicap debut.

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Smart Play:

• Win Selection: Mythical Phoenix – Well-handicapped on recent efforts; reliable and should get a good tow.
• Each-Way Saver: Sacred Falls – Will be finishing late; ground and setup look suitable.