Pace & Draw:
Pace looks to come from Banana, Due Date, and possibly Nordic Glory or Savalas, with Vape likely prominent from stall 10. Being handy is usually an advantage at Windsor, especially on good-to-firm ground. Stall 1 can be a trap unless the break is sharp.
Leading Contenders:
1. Gogo Yubari (Drawn 7)
- Form: 1st of 10 at Windsor (5f, good to firm), won with authority.
- Notes: First turf win, responded well to strong early gallop. Up 5lb but still rated below her AW peak (77).
- Verdict: Likely still well treated — strong chance if repeating that effort.
2. Due Date (Drawn 3)
- Form: Won Leicester classified easily; followed up with a good second under a penalty.
- Notes: AW specialist who’s transferred form to turf. Blinkers working well. Speedy type.
- Verdict: In form, handles conditions — must go well if not regressing.
3. Banana (Drawn 2)
- Form: 1st and 3rd in recent efforts; front-runner.
- Notes: Not always genuine but more game than record suggests. Well drawn.
- Verdict: Dangerous if getting a soft lead — place contender.
4. Vape (Drawn 10)
- Form: Just denied over 7f at Salisbury; all 7 wins over 6f.
- Notes: Slight stamina doubt at 7f; 6f ideal. Tends to perform well fresh.
- Verdict: Back in trip, well-handicapped — big run likely.
5. Arlecchino’s Gift (Drawn 4)
- Form: In and out — latest run poor.
- Notes: Has won off this mark; capable but unpredictable.
- Verdict: Dangerous if on a going day, though unreliable.
6. Phoenix Moon (Drawn 1)
- Form: AW winner, decent third in better grade at Lingfield in April.
- Notes: Not convincing on turf so far but now back in calmer waters.
- Verdict: One to watch — ground and track may not suit ideally.
Live Outsiders & Notables:
- Mammy (Drawn 5): Multiple fair efforts in better races; drops in class. Shoemark a positive booking.
- Nordic Glory (Drawn 9): Effective over 6f on AW; Windsor third two starts ago solid.
- Valadero (Drawn 8): Two decent AW efforts in blinkers earlier this year. Turf form unconvincing.
- Savalas (Drawn 6): Veteran sprinter. Inconsistent but not without ability in weak races.
Top Ratings & Profiles:
| Horse | RPR Peak | Recent Form | Tactics | Draw | Suitability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gogo Yubari | 77 | 1st Windsor | Mid-pack | 7 | ★★★★☆ |
| Due Date | 68 | 2nd Yarmouth | Prominent | 3 | ★★★★☆ |
| Banana | 65 | 3rd Bath | Front-runner | 2 | ★★★★☆ |
| Vape | 85 | 2nd Salisbury | Prominent | 10 | ★★★★☆ |
| Phoenix Moon | 71 | 4th Salisbury | Mid/held | 1 | ★★★☆☆ |
Tissue Price Estimate:
- Gogo Yubari – 7/2
- Vape – 4/1
- Due Date – 9/2
- Banana – 6/1
- Mammy – 10/1
- Phoenix Moon – 11/1
- Arlecchino’s Gift – 12/1
- Others – 14/1+
Summary:
The market should revolve around Gogo Yubari, who looks well-treated despite a rise and appreciated turf last time. Vape, back at his optimum trip and class, appeals as a value alternative. Due Date is solid, especially if coping with the turf once more. Banana is a reliable pace angle who can stick on into a place.
Bets:
- Win Bet: Gogo Yubari
- Each-Way: Vape (especially if 6/1+)
- Forecast Saver: Gogo Yubari > Due Date / Banana
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