Race Conditions + Pace Angles + Draw Angles

This is a Group 3 over 7f for juveniles on ground described as good to firm. Several runners led or pressed on debut, but there’s no clear out-and-out trailblazer. Expect a moderate, even pace, unless one or more debut leaders go forward again.

Draw Angles: Historically, the 7f trip on the Knavesmire has shown no consistent draw bias on quick ground, but runners from mid to low draws (1–6) can be favoured in steadily run contests. With no strong pace guaranteed, tactical positioning may be more decisive than draw.

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Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders

Strongest Contenders:

• Italy (Progressive): Already placed in Group 2 company behind a smart stablemate (RPR 113) after winning well at Leopardstown. Shaped like more to come at 7f+, and pedigree (Wootton Bassett x Galileo mare) suggests stamina and class. Proven at the level and time-figure strong. Trainer excels here.
• Goodwood Galaxy (Promising): Hit 111 RPR in the Vintage Stakes (G2) when finishing strongly into 4th behind Zavateri, despite being slowly away and wide. Huge upgrade on debut win. Half-brother to Irish 1000 Guineas winner Fallen Angel. Promising and open to more; sectional profile encouraging.
• Distant Storm (Promising): Created a strong impression when narrowly winning debut (RPR 104), form boosted by second. Huge breeze-up price (€1.9m), and yard has elite record with this type. Entry in the National Stakes signals intent. Still unfurnished, but looks a Group horse.

Main Dangers:

• Gewan (Progressive): Rallied gamely to win a solid Newbury novice (RPR 97) first time out. The 100kgns yearling cost €80k at breeze-ups. Stronger pedigree than rating suggests and yard excels at placing juveniles. Stays 7f well. Progressive and may take a leap forward.
• May Angel (Promising): Took a big step forward from debut to win at Southwell (RPR 98). Strong closing sectional and bred to appreciate 7f+ (Dark Angel x 11f dam line). Plenty of scope. Gosden team happy to pitch him here early. Interesting riser, but needs another big step.

Interesting Outsiders:

• Rochfortbridge (Unexposed): Scored on debut at Ayr (RPR 100) in a muddling race. Bred for more (US 7f pedigree). Connections originally thought of the Convivial but re-routed here. Could surprise if pace collapses.
• Oceans Four (Unexposed): Easily won at Ffos Las on second start (RPR 93), having trailed home behind Distant Storm first time. Strong closing effort, but others have higher ceilings for now.
• Sovereign Ocean (Unexposed): Big-priced Musselburgh debut winner (RPR 86). Ran green and won cosily. Pedigree suggests 7f is minimum. Will stay further, but this comes quick and looks a learning curve.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

• Italy: 9/10 – Proven in Group 2, handles trip, track and ground. Peak rating sets standard.
• Goodwood Galaxy: 8/10 – Improving sharply; eye-catching effort last time; needs to break sharper.
• Distant Storm: 8/10 – Serious potential, huge price tag, won debut well. Still raw.
• Gewan: 7/10 – Strong debut. Physically scopey, likely to improve.
• May Angel: 7/10 – Impressive Southwell win, late developer.
• Rochfortbridge: 6/10 – Nice profile, needs significant improvement; shape of race might suit.
• Oceans Four: 6/10 – Winner last time; up against classier rivals.
• Sovereign Ocean: 5/10 – Well-bred, not without hope, but big leap needed.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.

Watch out for in-form 2yos stepping up fast – confidence in profile is key.

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Each-Way Angles (8 runners)

• Rochfortbridge: Will be underestimated in the market; scopey and ground suits.
• Gewan: Plenty of upside, trainer has good record with second-time-out winners.

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Private Tissue Estimate

• Italy – 2/1
• Goodwood Galaxy – 7/2
• Distant Storm – 4/1
• Gewan – 8/1
• May Angel – 10/1
• Rochfortbridge – 12/1
• Oceans Four – 14/1
• Sovereign Ocean – 25/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Smart Play

Summary: Italy sets a strong standard with his Group 2 second, while both Goodwood Galaxy and Distant Storm are on upward curves. Gewan and May Angel have credible claims for further progression. With no guaranteed pace, positioning could prove key – a tactical test may suit those with prior Group experience.

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Smart Play:

• Win Selection: Italy – Already proven in top juvenile company, well-bred, and the form looks rock-solid.
• Each-Way Saver: Goodwood Galaxy – Upgraded run in the Vintage; classy pedigree and will stay well.