Distance: 1m2f56y | Class 1 | Surface: Turf | Going: Good to Firm
Eligibility: 3yo+ | Field Size: 6 | Pace Forecast: Very Weak
Draw Bias: Neutral (no relevant angle over this trip in small fields)
Pace Scenario:
This sets up to be a tactical affair, with no confirmed front-runner. The most forward-going on the data is Birr Castle, but he’s not a natural pace-forcer. Ombudsman and Delacroix tend to race mid-pack or close up when necessary but both prefer a target. The lack of an obvious leader could turn this into a sprint from halfway, which risks compromising closers like Daryz and Danon Decile.
Critically, Delacroix has repeatedly traded short in running before fading — a known vulnerability in tactical races.
Strongest Contenders
Ombudsman (10/10) – Proven & Progressive
This lightly-raced colt has produced top-class speedfigures and quickened decisively off slow and strong paces alike. His Prince of Wales’s win at Royal Ascot was no fluke, and he proved it when edged out at Sandown despite being warm beforehand. Versatile tactically, well-drawn, and in a red-hot yard.
Delacroix (8.5/10) – Progressive, But Vulnerable Tactically
He was electric at Sandown, but the pace collapse helped, and prior Derby effort exposed inexperience. That he keeps trading short in defeat suggests punters overestimate his finishing power. Still improving, but no guarantees if forced to chase in a crawl.
Main Dangers
Danon Decile (7.5/10) – Proven at the Top Level
A Dubai Turf winner with a smooth travelling style. However, his win came in a race that turned into a dash and he was fresh and keyed-up. At York, needing to settle off a slow gallop in a field of elite quickeners poses a new test. Ability’s clear, but tactical questions remain.
See The Fire (7/10) – Consistent and Tough
Runner-up in this grade and suited by York, she’ll race handily and stays well. The sex/age allowance makes her dangerous, but she lacks the late speed of the top two colts in a messy tactical contest.
Interesting Outsiders
Daryz (6.5/10) – Unexposed, Wrong Setup
Unbeaten in four and bred for the top level, but has done all his winning in France off slow paces in small fields. May lack the experience and positional speed for this sort of race — big jump in class and ringcraft needed.
Birr Castle (5/10) – Exposed, Wrong Scenario
Honest but lacks gears. The very weak pace is a killer, as he stays rather than sprints. Would need a pace collapse and softer ground to compete.
Runner Scores and Suitability Summary:
| Runner | Score /10 | Track/Trip/Ground Fit |
|---|---|---|
| Ombudsman | 10 | Perfectly suited; pace adaptable |
| Delacroix | 8.5 | Proven class; tactically exposed |
| Danon Decile | 7.5 | May settle too far back |
| See The Fire | 7 | Reliable; lacks instant change-up |
| Daryz | 6.5 | Promising; wrong race shape |
| Birr Castle | 5 | Outpaced in this class/tempo |
Watch the market for significant moves, particularly for those returning from longer layoffs (e.g., Daryz) or unexposed types.
Avoid overrating late closers in weak pace scenarios like this.
Private Tissue Estimate:
- Ombudsman – 7/4
- Delacroix – 11/4
- Danon Decile – 4/1
- See The Fire – 15/2
- Daryz – 10/1
- Birr Castle – 25/1
Market watch advised for runners making their second start.
Summary + Professional Punter View
This Group 1 revolves around who controls the fractions. With no front-runner, it’s ripe for a tactical steal or stalking ride. Ombudsman has both the form and race position likely to capitalise. Delacroix has the raw engine but is pace-risk vulnerable. Danon Decile and Daryz have international flair, but both profile like they’ll get caught flat-footed. See The Fire runs her race, but probably not fast enough in this dash.
Smart Play
- Win Bet: Ombudsman – tactically sharp and progressive; has gears for any scenario.
- Saver: Delacroix (place only) – must be ridden perfectly in a race that may catch him out.
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