Race Conditions + Pace Angles + Draw Angles

A €12,500 maiden confined to fillies and mares over just shy of a mile. On good ground, Roscommon’s turning track can favour those racing handily, as it is hard to make up significant ground late if the pace steadies mid-race.
This looks a steadily run race: Thru The Gap has shown some early speed, while Suerte and Perfect Base have raced forwardly in the past. Expect a tactical affair with the emphasis on positioning.
Draws 2–6 hold a notable advantage at this trip; wide-drawn runners may be forced to cover extra ground.

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Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders

Proxima Centauri (Mrs John Harrington) – Promising
Regally bred (out of Alpha Centauri), she’s shown useful maiden form, including a strong third at Leopardstown and a fifth in a big Curragh field last month. That run should have blown away cobwebs after a nine-month break. With Shane Foley up, she sets the standard and should be hard to beat if reproducing her Leopardstown RPR of 85.

Tina’s Charm (Dermot Weld) – Progressive
By Mehmas, she has improved with each start, finishing seventh in a big-field Curragh maiden before a solid sixth at Naas earlier this month, finishing out her race well. Likely to improve again, and Weld’s fillies usually progress run-to-run. Drawn 9 is not ideal, but she’s one to respect.

Perfect Base (Natalia Lupini) – Improving
Caught the eye at Fairyhouse when runner-up to odds-on favourite Shakazia. That marked a big step forward from her debut. By Acclamation, she looks well suited to this trip and should get a nice position from stall 3. Likely to be thereabouts if stepping forward again.

Suerte (Sheila Lavery) – Capable
Placed on the Dundalk AW earlier this year and showed promise on turf when fourth at Cork. Has run consistently enough without winning, and her mark around 75 RPR suggests she should be competitive at this level. Well drawn in stall 1, she should be prominent.

Thru The Gap (Patrick Magee) – Dark Horse
Ran well when second at Galway earlier this month, recording a career-best RPR 73. That showed significant improvement from her debut. Wide draw in 11 is a negative, but she could be a pace factor and may hang on for a place.

Faberi (Sheila Lavery) – Outside Chance
Hasn’t been placed yet in three starts but her Leopardstown effort last October showed some ability. Ran respectably at Gowran on seasonal return. Could sneak into minor money with improvement, but looks short of the principals.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

• Proxima Centauri: 9/10 – Sets the standard, proven ability, strong connections, well suited.
• Tina’s Charm: 8/10 – Improving, from top stable, has more to offer. Wide draw slight concern.
• Perfect Base: 7/10 – Upward curve, good draw, strong place claims.
• Suerte: 7/10 – Consistent, tactically well drawn, has form that puts her in the mix.
• Thru The Gap: 6/10 – Best effort at Galway, but needs to defy tricky draw.
• Faberi: 5/10 – Limited so far, but possible minor progress.
• Alishba, Roudha, Syzygy, Vocology, Ready To Mingle: 4/10 or less – Limited evidence of ability to trouble the principals.

Keep an eye on the market for any support for unexposed types like Thru The Gap or the Weld filly Tina’s Charm, who may be expected to progress further.

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Each-Way Angles

11 runners → each-way betting applies (3 places).

• Perfect Base appeals as the most solid each-way option, with consistent recent form and a strong draw.
• Thru The Gap could sneak into the frame at bigger odds if building on her Galway second.

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Private Tissue Estimate

• Proxima Centauri – 2/1
• Tina’s Charm – 7/2
• Perfect Base – 5/1
• Suerte – 7/1
• Thru The Gap – 8/1
• Faberi – 10/1
• Others – 16/1+

Market watch advised for lightly raced runners returning from breaks or stepping up in trip.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

This looks an excellent opportunity for Proxima Centauri, who brings the strongest form and should progress further. Tina’s Charm is an improving Weld filly who can take a step forward, while Perfect Base has a nice draw and looks the most solid each-way player.

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Smart Play:

• Win Bet: Proxima Centauri – Class edge, proven form, and bred for better.
• Each-Way Saver: Perfect Base – On the upgrade, well drawn, and strong place chance.