Race Shape + Tactical & Draw Angles:

A field of 14 in a low-grade 0–100 handicap over an intermediate trip. Several habitual front-runners are present: Songo, Baikal, Catboy, and Colonel Lesley, which should ensure a strong pace. The Newton Abbot layout is sharp and suits nimble, handy types; hold-up horses will need race luck. Draws have minimal impact over hurdles here.

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Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders:

Strongest Contenders:

• Stinginhisstep – Progressive (8/10)
  Has won twice over this C&D recently and still appears to be on the upgrade. Comfortable winner last time (RPR 97) and shaped like there’s more to come. Connections speak positively and form is solidly franked. No issues with conditions, drawn to race prominently, and application of headgear is consistent. Big player if in the same mood.
• Hill Station – Proven (8/10)
  Has knocked on the door repeatedly in similar company and is holding form well. Shaped like a winner-in-waiting at this track in June and unlucky to be collared late by Gore Point. Will be delivered late off a strong pace, which suits. Solid course profile.

Main Dangers:

• Colonel Lesley – Exposed but Consistent (7/10)
  Placed on five of last six starts, often finding one too good. Likely to be involved again, but a win would require others to underperform. Brian Hughes is an interesting booking, suggesting intent.
• No Guarantee – Promising (7/10)
  Lightly raced and arriving off career-best RPR 109 at Market Rasen when out of the weights. The form stacks up, and he showed he stays well. Up 3lb but has upside and trainer in decent nick.
• Whispering Royal – Unproven but Respected (6/10)
  Hard to trust but hinted at better off tumbling mark last time. Switches jockey, but that could be a sign of targeting. Should get the race run to suit from mid-pack.

Interesting Outsiders:

• Lady Henrietta – Promising (6/10)
  Lightly raced mare from a capable yard. Ran well in bumpers and was given a quiet ride last time. Booking of Sean Bowen a plus. Could take a big step forward at this level.
• Baikal – Regressive but Capable (6/10)
  Bounced back to form at Stratford last time under similar conditions and has some flat speed. Another who needs things to fall right but dangerous off a light weight if pace collapses.

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Runner Scores & Suitability Analysis:

• Stinginhisstep: 8/10 – Progressive, strong C&D record, no concerns with going or pace.
• Hill Station: 8/10 – Consistent, race will suit his run style; well treated.
• Colonel Lesley: 7/10 – Solid and exposed; likely to place but needs everything to drop right to win.
• No Guarantee: 7/10 – Late-developing and thriving; open to more improvement.
• Whispering Royal: 6/10 – Unproven at this trip but well-handicapped.
• Lady Henrietta: 6/10 – Lightly raced and back in trip; dangerous if improved.
• Baikal: 6/10 – Won’t lack for fitness; interesting on Stratford win.
• Catboy: 5/10 – Form tailed off over fences; not certain to enjoy return to hurdles.
• Charlie My Boy: 5/10 – Recent form okay but looks held.
• Songo: 5/10 – Formerly useful but regressing now and trip/track too sharp.
• Square Du Roule: 5/10 – Honest but always vulnerable late; more of a placer.
• Greystoke: 4/10 – Flattered by RPRs; form largely underwhelming.
• Ben Lomond: 3/10 – Jumping not fluent; doesn’t appeal strongly on profile.
• Stinginhisstep: 8/10 – Already discussed; deserves reiteration.

Note: Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles (14 runners – each-way betting valid):

• Colonel Lesley – Consistently runs into the frame, and Hughes could lift him late.
• No Guarantee – Solid recent efforts and unexposed; extra place terms appeal.

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Private Tissue Estimate (Fair Odds):

• Stinginhisstep – 3/1
• Hill Station – 4/1
• No Guarantee – 6/1
• Colonel Lesley – 7/1
• Whispering Royal – 10/1
• Lady Henrietta – 12/1
• Baikal – 14/1
• Others – 16/1+

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary & Professional Punter View:

This looks a strongly run Class 5 with multiple pace angles, ideal for something to come from midfield or just off it. Stinginhisstep is the form pick and rates solidly, with course form, stamina, and tactical pace all ticking the boxes. Hill Station is the value alternative: a consistent type whose turn might finally arrive with the right setup. The lightly raced No Guarantee adds interest as a progressive 5yo.

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Smart Play:

• Win Selection: Stinginhisstep – progressive and dominates this form-wise.
• Each-Way Saver: No Guarantee – thriving and could still have more in hand off a featherweight.