Pace Angles & Draw Bias:

Chase draw bias is minimal, but positioning and pace shape matter greatly. This looks a strongly-run staying handicap with My Girl Katie, Mini Fortune, Ryder’s Rock, and Cave Article all likely to press or lead. Given the tight right-handed turns at Newton Abbot and the good ground, it pays to race handily without being in a pace duel. Stamina and tactical positioning will be key over this trip.

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Strongest Contenders

Cave Article – Proven / Progressive
Three-time chase winner this season, shaping as a likeable staying type. Wasn’t suited by soft ground latest (noted in post-race), but today’s quicker surface plays to strengths. His Southwell win (24f, good) was emphatic, and he’s tactically versatile. Recent RPRs (100-91-96) and timefigure profile back up his form. Young and still improving in the right hands.

My Girl Katie – Proven / Resurgent
Won twice at this track this summer and stays the trip well. Latest win came with authority despite the drop back in trip, and this sharper course suits her fluent jumping and staying power. Trainer-jockey combo in form. Up 7lb but arrives thriving.

Mini Fortune – Point-Proven / Consistent
Five-time point winner who’s taken time to adjust under rules but has shaped well in all three chase starts. Her 3rd to Deadly Missile last time was respectable in a race that’s worked out. On a low mark and stays very well. Her jumping is tidy, and she could grind these down late.

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Main Dangers

Ryder’s Rock – Capable / Vulnerable
Benefited from race collapses in wins. Found little at Fontwell last time after getting an easy lead. She’s inconsistent over staying trips and has failed to back up efforts when stepped up in grade or class.

Firefly Lane – Exposed / Risks
Genuine mare who stays well and has placed on 6 of last 9 starts. Was disputing 2nd when falling here last time. That said, she’s now a 9yo and vulnerable to less exposed rivals.

Blackacre – Unproven / Plodding Profile
Remains a maiden but continues to pick up minor prizes. Stays on at one pace and often flatters to deceive. Today’s good ground is fine, but he’ll need others to fade late. A minor placing would be a good result.

Just A Memory – Limited Evidence / One-Paced
Recent chase debut efforts were tepid. A few efforts over hurdles hint she might improve for further, but jumping still looks a concern. 12-0 is a burden, and others are far more appealing.

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Runner Scores & Suitability Analysis

• Cave Article – 8.5/10 – Solid chaser; well-handicapped still; good ground ideal.
• My Girl Katie – 8/10 – Resurgent mare; track form; up in trip suits.
• Mini Fortune – 7.5/10 – Strong stayer; building form; respected.
• Ryder’s Rock – 6.5/10 – Flattered by some wins; stamina query.
• Firefly Lane – 6/10 – Tries hard; often in the mix; lacks final gear.
• Blackacre – 5.5/10 – Stays; moderate; minor place at best.
• Just A Memory – 5/10 – Inconsistent; stamina possibly okay, but jumping an issue.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form chasers returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles

Mini Fortune – Consistent, form in place, low weight and solid stayer’s profile. If Cave Article and My Girl Katie get embroiled up front, she’ll pick them off late.

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Private Tissue Estimate

• Cave Article – 11/4
• My Girl Katie – 7/2
• Mini Fortune – 6/1
• Ryder’s Rock – 7/1
• Firefly Lane – 9/1
• Blackacre – 14/1
• Just A Memory – 20/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

A tightly-knit staying chase where proven recent form is key. Cave Article brings a robust profile with room for further progress and handles all ground. My Girl Katie is the obvious threat at a track she thrives at, but she’s up in the weights. Mini Fortune remains under the radar and could be the value play late on if the pace collapses.

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Smart Play

Win Selection: Cave Article – Still ahead of the handicapper and conditions perfect.
Each-Way Saver: Mini Fortune – Stays very well, low weight, and consistent recent efforts.