Pace Angles + Draw Angles

There’s no confirmed front-runner in the field, though Certain Style, Qilin Queen, or Fram Castle could press forward based on past positioning. The likely scenario is a steadily-run race, favouring those with a turn of foot rather than dour stayers. Draws are largely neutral at this trip on the AW at Lingfield.

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Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders

Strongest Contender – Fram Castle (PROVEN):
Has form figures of 1-2-2 in three recent AW runs over extended trips and is clearly thriving at present. The drop back in grade after a credible Lingfield second gives him every chance. Effective on AW, shaped like this trip suits, and he’s versatile tactically.

Main Danger – Inlet (PROMISING):
Unexposed stayer who ran respectably at Windsor and Newmarket despite race shape and traffic issues. Her Lingfield second in February at 2m showed she can stay well, and she’s handled polytrack. Back on the AW and with stamina now assured, she’s a live threat off a fair mark.

Interesting Outsider – Blenheim Lad (WELL-TREATED):
Thorough stayer with two wins over 14f on AW last season. Looked back on track in May/June and was unsuited by ground at Nottingham. Polytrack return and drawn out wide but may drop in and pick up late if pace is even.

Other Notables:

• Fair Dinkum: Regressive profile but C&D winner on AW. Drop in grade helps, but recent turf form is poor.
• Sydney Seabreeze: Talented on best AW efforts (RPR 77), but recent runs suggest regression or headgear issues. Market signals crucial.
• Grey Owl: Consistent but looks vulnerable off current mark. No win in 2025 yet despite several solid runs.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

• Fram Castle: 8/10 – Stays, runs well on AW, in form. Best recent figures and shapes like there’s more to come.
• Inlet: 7/10 – Unexposed, strong stamina signal, consistent, back on polytrack. Watch for market support.
• Blenheim Lad: 6/10 – Returns to surface that suits. Can win again at this level. Needs pace to close.
• Fair Dinkum: 6/10 – Drop in grade helps. Peak AW form good enough, but recent effort weak.
• Sydney Seabreeze: 5/10 – Cheekpieces off now, best efforts came earlier. Has ability but not convincing lately.
• Grey Owl: 5/10 – Reliable place type, but struggles to win. Track suits.
• Smith: 5/10 – Veteran with C&D form but limited upside now.
• Certain Style: 4/10 – Misleading win last November, hasn’t backed it up. Hard to trust.
• Leonidass: 3/10 – Little Flat form of note. Looks outclassed.
• Velvet Vulcan: 3/10 – Profile erratic, stamina not assured beyond 1m6f.
• Girl Of Gold: 2/10 – No worthwhile Flat form.
• Ruler Of The River: 2/10 – Has stamina but Flat form too poor to consider seriously.
• Izakaya: 2/10 – Still learning but no current impact.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles

With 13 declared runners, each-way terms apply.
Inlet and Blenheim Lad appeal as solid each-way angles at likely double-figure odds.

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Private Tissue Estimate

• Fram Castle – 7/2
• Inlet – 5/1
• Blenheim Lad – 7/1
• Fair Dinkum – 8/1
• Sydney Seabreeze – 10/1
• Grey Owl – 12/1
• Smith – 16/1
• Certain Style – 20/1
• Leonidass – 33/1
• Velvet Vulcan – 33/1
• Girl Of Gold – 50/1
• Izakaya – 66/1
• Ruler Of The River – 66/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

This looks a typical Class 6 staying handicap with exposed types and a few unexposed improvers. Fram Castle has solid course form and should be staying on strongly. Inlet could relish this test now fully tuned and back on the AW. Blenheim Lad could be a late rattle type at a price if getting luck in running.

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Smart Play

Win Selection: Fram Castle – Well-handicapped, in-form, and suited by race setup.
Each-Way Saver: Inlet – Unexposed, trip likely ideal, goes well on AW.