Pace Angles + Draw Angles

Being a hurdles race, draw is not a factor, but tactically this race leans toward a steady pace. Hope Rising and Max Of Stars both tend to race prominently, with Hope Rising especially likely to push the tempo. No confirmed habitual front-runner though, which may cause a tactical affair.

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Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders

Strongest Contender – Sergeant Fury (PROGRESSIVE):
This improving 5yo has rattled off a novice hat-trick with increasing authority, including a cosy win over course and distance last time. His jumping is still a work in progress, but he’s finding his rhythm and comes from a yard capable of more improvement. Strong traveller, handles quick ground, and now returns to handicaps off a fair-looking mark (112).

Main Danger – Breaking Cover (PROVEN):
Has returned from a long break in top form, with two battling wins at Newton Abbot and Uttoxeter. Carries a 7lb penalty now but still looks capable in this grade. The fact he rallied late last time suggests he’ll be suited by this small-field test, though there’s a slight concern that he’s been all out to win twice. Peak RPRs suggest he’s competitive but not obviously ahead of the assessor.

Interesting Outsider – Hope Rising (PROMISING):
Strong novice campaign and now switches to handicaps for the first time. Has good course speed figures and is tactically sharp. Possibly vulnerable in a finish against battle-hardened geldings, but she’s unexposed and bred to stay well. If allowed a lead, she could take pegging back. The Snowden/Sheehan combo is in solid nick and often goes well at this track.

Other Notables:

• Max Of Stars (TOUGH BUT EXPOSED): Genuine mare and consistent over C&D, but looked flat when brushed aside last time. RPRs suggest she’s near ceiling off 118.
• Polling Day (INCONSISTENT): Mixed-code performer; not straightforward and stamina over 2m remains questionable under pressure. Capable of placing on best Flat form but a risky proposition.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

• Sergeant Fury: 8/10 – Improving, handles ground, course form, and now handicapping off fair mark. Still upside.
• Breaking Cover: 7/10 – Gritty and in-form, penalised but has momentum. Needs to dig in again but should go well.
• Hope Rising: 7/10 – Tactically quick, unexposed handicap debutant, potential leader, strong course efforts. Big player.
• Max Of Stars: 6/10 – Solid and consistent but looks at her limit off 118. Peak may have passed.
• Polling Day: 4/10 – Lacks hurdles polish and finishing effort over 2m is a concern.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles

With only 5 runners, each-way betting angles are not applicable.

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Private Tissue Estimate

• Sergeant Fury – 2/1
• Breaking Cover – 3/1
• Hope Rising – 4/1
• Max Of Stars – 6/1
• Polling Day – 10/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

A tight Class 4 contest featuring fit, in-form types. Sergeant Fury has improved with each start and should be sharper still back in handicap company. Breaking Cover will make this a test late on but is penalised. Hope Rising is the unknown quantity – lightly raced and tactically well suited, she could spring a surprise.

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Smart Play

Win Selection: Sergeant Fury – Solid profile, still improving, and off a fair opening mark in this sphere.
No each-way saver – Field size does not allow.