4.20 Lingfield – Sponsored By Hanson Regan Handicap (Class 4)
1m4f | All-Weather | 3yo+ Rated 66-87 | £10,000 | Standard Surface
Pace Angles + Draw Angles:
Pace projection suggests a steady-to-even gallop with limited natural pace. Wadacre Gomez can go forward, as can Best Adventure, but neither is a confirmed trailblazer. The lack of an aggressive leader may put the emphasis on tactical positioning and turn of foot.
Draw on the AW at Lingfield (1m4f) is not critical, but inside stalls offer potential rail-saving, which suits the likes of Buxted Too (1) and Fox Avatar (3).
Strongest Contenders:
Fox Avatar – Progressive 4yo (Proven/Promising)
Lightly raced with strong form since fitted with headgear. Recent win at Chelmsford was authoritative and a solid follow-up at Wolverhampton in a stronger race confirms upward momentum. His RPR 92 marks him as a leading player. Tactically versatile and handles Tapeta.
Best Adventure – Classy 3yo (Promising)
Frankel colt with a touch of quality, already a dual winner at Class 4 level. Ran well in stronger races and his RPR 89 at Sandown suggests there’s more to come back in calmer waters. First go on AW but pedigree is no concern, and this trip should suit.
Harpsichord – Filly on the Rise (Progressive)
Excellent consistency this season, and her second to Palazzo Blu in April was a solid effort at 1m4f. Lightly raced, well-drawn, and comes from a yard in strong form. Likely to be involved late if the race develops steadily.
Main Dangers:
Wadacre Gomez – Course Form + Tactically Favoured (Proven)
Handles Lingfield well, often goes forward, and may control the pace here. Hasn’t been beaten far in stronger races and RPR 89/90 shows he’s not out of place. Only winless this year, but not without chances if left alone.
Buxted Too – Well Handicapped Veteran (Exposed but Suited)
Sliding down the weights, multiple course wins, and can stay on late. Recent efforts show he’s not far off a resurgence. Needs things to fall right but can be dangerous off 67. Will be doing his best work late.
Interesting Outsiders:
Bintabuha – Hard to Assess (Unproven)
Disappointed in recent starts but once looked progressive. Cheekpieces added, drawn well, and bred to stay this trip. Could bounce back but risky based on latest runs.
Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:
- Fox Avatar: 8.5/10 – Lightly raced, still improving, and well drawn. Good tactical fit.
- Best Adventure: 8/10 – Big engine, strong form at 10f, and bred for AW. Needs to settle.
- Harpsichord: 7.5/10 – Consistent, course winner, and stays. Strong place claims.
- Wadacre Gomez: 7/10 – Tactically interesting; Lingfield form solid.
- Buxted Too: 6.5/10 – Weighted to strike, but regressive. Backable for a place.
- Bintabuha: 5.5/10 – Needs to prove she’s trained on. Market can guide.
Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.
Each-Way Angles (7 runners – No Each-Way Angle Advised)
Field size under 8; no formal each-way proposition offered.
Private Tissue Estimate (Fair Odds):
- Fox Avatar – 3/1
- Best Adventure – 7/2
- Harpsichord – 5/1
- Wadacre Gomez – 6/1
- Buxted Too – 10/1
- Bintabuha – 12/1
- Others – 20/1+
Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.
Summary:
A small but tightly matched field for this Class 4 AW handicap. The likely steady gallop puts a premium on positioning and tactical nous. Fox Avatar is the best progressive profile in the race, while Best Adventure brings strong form from turf and could be well suited to the surface switch. Harpsichord is solid for a place, and Wadacre Gomez can’t be ignored if allowed a soft lead.
Smart Play:
- Win Selection: Fox Avatar – On the upgrade, proven at the level, and tactically adaptable.
- Saver: Best Adventure (win only) – Drops in class and has the form to make an impact.
Leave a comment