Pace Angles & Draw Angles:

This maiden has several likely pressers and trackers, notably Josh’s Joy, Smexy, and Thenandnow who were ridden forward on debut. Struck By Her and Baahyeh are likely to be held up.

Draw bias is neutral at this trip on decent ground at Leopardstown. However, wider draws (especially stalls 11–13) can be tactically awkward, especially for newcomers without experience.

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Strongest Contenders:

• Smexy (Ger Lyons / Colin Keane) – Proven & Progressive. Huge run in Group 3 company at Leopardstown latest (RPR 102), travelling powerfully before just being outstayed. That form stands out by a margin here. Despite a wide draw in stall 9, she’s the standard-setter. From a good family and likely to appreciate this trip again.
• Thenandnow (Mrs J Harrington / Shane Foley) – Progressive. Two solid runs here over 7f, second on debut and then shaped as though something was amiss when fading at Galway last time. RPR 93 on debut makes her a strong candidate to bounce back on better ground. Has track experience and is bred to stay a mile.
• Josh’s Joy (Donnacha O’Brien / Gavin Ryan) – Promising. Bred to improve with distance. Ran green but still posted an RPR 81 on debut behind Queen of Hawaii. A Moyglare entry, so clearly held in regard. Should improve sharply for the experience and looks sure to be involved.
• Venosa (Aidan O’Brien) – Promising. Ran on steadily for fourth in the same Queen of Hawaii race. Bred for much further (Gun Runner out of a Galileo dam). She’ll progress, though might need more time and ground. Still, not ruled out.

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Main Dangers / Upside Types:

• Ballaghkeen (J S Bolger) – Improving. Teofilo filly who ran better than it looked at Leopardstown when staying on from a poor position. Dam side a bit weak, but she’s the type to step up with a test of stamina.
• Victorious Dream – Stoutly bred. Ran on in a steadily run race at Leopardstown on debut, RPR 88. Ghaiyyath filly and first foal. Could sneak into the places with progress.
• Killashee Warrior – Bred to improve. Saxon Warrior filly with stamina influences. Likely to need the run, but not without long-term potential.

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Form Risk / Backward Types / Hold-Up Risks:

• Baahyeh – Poor debut; related to sprint winners, but likely to need a drop in trip or more time.
• Struck By Her – Minor promise on debut. Trainer noted for giving juveniles time.
• The Cosy Corner, Zusanne, Wingit – Beaten long way in large field maidens. Hard to recommend.

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Runner Scores & Suitability Summary:

• Smexy: 8.5/10 – Track form in a Group race, high RPR, ideal trip. Draw not ideal but clear form pick.
• Thenandnow: 8/10 – Solid form, bred to stay. Should be thereabouts.
• Josh’s Joy: 7.5/10 – Likely improver, holds a big entry.
• Venosa: 7/10 – Pedigree power, could be anything, but still learning.
• Ballaghkeen: 6.5/10 – Staying-on effort first time out. Needs to jump forward.
• Victorious Dream: 6/10 – Not discounted for minor honours.
• Killashee Warrior: 5.5/10 – Bred to progress, but may need time.
• Struck By Her: 5/10 – In need of experience.
• Baahyeh / The Cosy Corner / Zusanne / Wingit: 4.5/10 or less – Form suggests they’ll struggle.

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Private Tissue Estimate:

• Smexy – 7/4
• Thenandnow – 4/1
• Josh’s Joy – 5/1
• Venosa – 6/1
• Ballaghkeen – 10/1
• Victorious Dream – 14/1
• Others – 20/1+

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play):

This maiden is about whether anything can topple Smexy, whose Group 3 third (RPR 102) sets a standard none of the others have yet approached. The most likely to do so are the improving Josh’s Joy (well-regarded, smart pedigree) and Thenandnow, who showed plenty first time up.

Smart Play:

• Win Selection – Smexy (Strong Group 3 run, best form in the race)
• Saver – Thenandnow (Improved first time, excuses last time, nice pedigree)

Market watch advised for newcomers Bloom and Killashee Warrior, who could figure later in the autumn.