Pace Angles & Draw Angles:
This extended handicap hurdle lacks a habitual front-runner, suggesting an even gallop is the most likely outcome, though a muddling pace is possible if no one commits. With Newton Abbot’s tight, right-handed track favouring handy types, any hold-up horses may be at risk of needing luck in running. No draw angle applies for hurdles here.
Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders:
- Faded Fantasy (Proven)
Christian Williams’ 6yo arrives in career-best form, having won over C&D two starts ago and then beating Fine By Me at Worcester. He travels well, stays this trip, and acts on the ground. The key is whether he can repeat those efforts now off a 98 mark. A solid contender with no pace reliance. - Karavomylos (Progressive)
Strong stayer on an upward curve last summer; blinkers returned last time and he showed promise again. His chase runs haven’t clicked, but back over hurdles from a fair mark and with Sean Bowen up, he could surprise. His Newton Abbot form is unproven, but he’s tactically versatile. - Fine By Me (Exposed but Game)
Consistent and honest, but vulnerable to better treated types. His last three runs (2-2-7) show he’s operating near his ceiling. Holds no secrets from the handicapper, but stays well and should run to form. - Lelantos (Proven but Patchy)
Stays well and won this race last year from 100; he’s back on 96 and has shaped with some promise on two occasions this summer. He was pulled up last time (fences), but returns to hurdles with a big weight and stable form in mind. James Bowen rides; market check advised. - Testflight (Promising at Low Grade)
Has been rejuvenated by fences and put together a strong trio of C&D efforts recently (2-2-1). While he’s been 8lb wrong at times, he’s clearly in excellent form. Now back hurdling and not obviously well treated, but momentum counts in Class 5 company. - Shibuya Song (Interesting Outsider)
Lightly raced and has hit the frame in all three starts at trips beyond 2m6f. Unexposed at the trip and stayed on encouragingly behind Faded Fantasy. She’s only 3lb above her last win and is one of the few open to further progress.
Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:
- Faded Fantasy: 8/10 – Suited to track/trip/ground. In-form and not ground-dependent.
- Karavomylos: 7/10 – Potentially thrown in if returning to hurdle form; course suitability a question.
- Fine By Me: 7/10 – Reliable but handicapper has him.
- Lelantos: 7/10 – Last year’s winner; risky but capable. Course proven.
- Testflight: 7/10 – On the up; thriving in low-grade chases; not obviously well-in.
- Shibuya Song: 6/10 – Unexposed at staying trips, profile suggests she can compete.
- Rubys Legacy: 5/10 – Showed a spark after wind surgery but hard to trust just yet.
- Danzini: 5/10 – Stays well but inconsistency an issue.
- Chief Black Robe: 5/10 – Well-handicapped reverting to hurdles but tailed off recently.
- Canastero: 4/10 – Long layoff and no recent encouragement; watch for fitness.
- Share A Moment: 4/10 – Stayed on last time but outclassed in context.
- Testflight: 6/10 – In good nick, but 8lb wrong last time; now reassessed.
Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form stayers returning quickly; they can be hot.
Each-Way Angles (12 runners):
- Shibuya Song and Karavomylos both hold each-way potential – one is unexposed, the other possibly well-handicapped returning to hurdles.
Private Tissue Estimate:
- Faded Fantasy – 4/1
- Karavomylos – 5/1
- Fine By Me – 11/2
- Lelantos – 7/1
- Testflight – 8/1
- Shibuya Song – 10/1
- Danzini – 14/1
- Rubys Legacy – 16/1
- Chief Black Robe – 20/1
- Share A Moment – 25/1
- Canastero – 33/1
Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.
Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play):
A competitive low-grade staying handicap with several familiar names, some course scorers, and a few unexposed angles. Pace may be uneven, which can hurt hold-up types if nothing makes it.
Smart Play:
- Win Bet – Faded Fantasy: In-form and proven at trip/class, with tactical flexibility. Slightly exposed but appeals most on current evidence.
- Each-Way Saver – Karavomylos: Capable if putting it together back over hurdles. Potentially well-treated and has Sean Bowen up.
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