Race Conditions, Likely Pace & Draw Angles:

A strongly contested 7f Heritage Handicap on fast summer ground. Likely strong pace scenario: multiple forward-goers (Bellarchi, Dance In The Storm, Shallow, Bonus Time, Ormolulu) drawn across the track point to a genuine gallop.

Draw bias:
Recent York 7f big-field handicaps on good-firm suggest a marginal advantage towards middle to high draws, particularly if racing up the stands rail late. No notable hard bias, but low draws (1–5) risk being crowded early in strongly-run events.

---

Strongest Contenders & Main Dangers:

Dance In The Storm – Proven & Progressive

A steadily progressing 3yo from a top yard, she was narrowly denied in a strong Goodwood fillies’ handicap after looking unlucky (interference + strong finish). Her energy profile (FS%) aligns well with a strong pace here and she has York form. Oisin Murphy takes over. Remains well handicapped on visual and sectional evidence. Drawn 16 is ideal to avoid traffic.

Silver Ghost – Progressive

Strong form at Goodwood and Ascot in top 3yo handicaps. Clearly improving and confirmed her potential with a smooth win prior to Royal meeting. Handles fast ground well, has scope for more, and gets a neutral draw (6). Running style is adaptable—ideal in a compressed big field.

Bonus Time – Promising

Lightly raced, bought for 320k and looks the part. Her effort over 7f behind a solid yardstick (Sounds Like A Plan) was better than it looks—sectionals support a stamina fade late. Drop to 6f last time produced a win, but she shapes like a 7f performer and gets strong yard/jockey support. Big-field pace will suit her late kick.

Dash Of Azure – Promising

Sandringham 5th, then caught too early last time but ran creditably. Track should suit, and being dropped back to 7f after 1m exertions looks ideal. Ryan Moore retains the ride; Ralph Beckett flying. Draw 18 no issue.

Royal Velvet – Proven

Won well here earlier in the year and ran a fine race in a red-hot fillies’ handicap prior to a below-par latest effort (track bias possible). William Buick returns and has been key to her best runs. A strong stalker—needs cover and pace collapse, but profile is solid.

---

Interesting Outsiders:

• Bellarchi (Draw 15): Form of late is hot, she’s thriving. No Group ceiling, but loves a battle and will handle strong gallop. Acts here.
• Ormolulu (Draw 9): Eyecatching on penultimate York run, and had little room last time. Still looks well treated. Likely to be delivered late.
• Maybe Not (Draw 3): Lightly raced improver, potentially still ahead of the handicapper, though lower draw is a small concern.

---

Hold-up Risk Types:

• Perfect Part: Can miss the break; needs luck with her late run.
• French Sand: Shaped as if capable, but racing style requires gaps.
• Mollie Foster: Eyecatcher last time, but not guaranteed clear run here.

---

Runner Scores & Suitability:

• Dance In The Storm: 9/10 – Strong pace ideal, form solid, wide draw perfect.
• Silver Ghost: 8.5/10 – Sharpening profile, adaptable style.
• Bonus Time: 8/10 – 7f stamina slight concern but form is classy.
• Dash Of Azure: 8/10 – York debut, classy and scopey.
• Royal Velvet: 7.5/10 – Reliable at this level.
• Bellarchi: 7/10 – Hard knocker, can nick a place.
• Ormolulu: 7/10 – Unlucky last time, strong finisher.
• Perfect Part: 6.5/10 – Tends to need gaps and timing.
• French Sand: 6.5/10 – Unexposed but needs to step forward.
• Maybe Not: 6/10 – Improving but drawn low.
• Mollie Foster: 6/10 – Late headway type, lacks tactical edge.
• Callianassa: 5.5/10 – Surface switch a question mark.
• Shallow: 5/10 – Peak effort needed and lacks class edge.
• Eternal Sunshine: 5/10 – Likeable, but hard to see impact at this level.
• Lady Mariko: 4/10 – Consistent in lesser grade, big ask here.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

---

Each-Way Angles:

With 18 runners, each-way value is strong.

• Bellarchi: Game filly, holding form, draw gives tactical options.
• Ormolulu: Unlucky last time, late closer with upside.

---

Private Tissue Estimate (Guide Odds):

• Dance In The Storm – 5/1
• Silver Ghost – 6/1
• Bonus Time – 13/2
• Dash Of Azure – 8/1
• Royal Velvet – 10/1
• Bellarchi – 12/1
• Ormolulu – 14/1
• French Sand – 16/1
• Perfect Part – 18/1
• Mollie Foster – 20/1
• Maybe Not – 22/1
• Callianassa – 25/1
• Eternal Sunshine – 33/1
• Shallow – 33/1
• Lady Mariko – 40/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

---

Summary & Smart Play:

This is a deep, competitive fillies’ handicap with a projected strong pace. That should favour late closers drawn middle to high. Several progressive types are lurking, but Dance In The Storm ticks nearly every box – class, pace suitability, draw, and trainer form. Silver Ghost and Bonus Time also warrant respect, while Bellarchi and Ormolulu could crash the frame at big prices.

Smart Play:

• Win Bet: Dance In The Storm
• Each-Way Saver: Bellarchi (if 5+ places available)