Race Conditions, Likely Pace & Draw Angles:
A €25k 7f 2yo maiden restricted to auction purchases ≤ €30,000. No standout established performer – several showed ability on debut.
Pace: Not a confirmed trailblazer; looks a steady-to-even gallop. That could suit those with tactical speed rather than one-paced stayers.
Draw bias: At Leopardstown 7f, a middle-to-high berth often offers best tactical options.
Strongest Contenders & Main Dangers:
Chapel Lane – Promising / Progressive
Eyecatcher on debut (Navan 13 Jul), third after flying late from an unpromising position. Pedigree (by Tamayuz out of a mare from Japan Cup-winning family) suggests stamina and class. Step up to 7f should be ideal, and connections are adept at bringing them on. Big player.
Princess Rosie – Promising
Ran a cracker at 125/1 here last month (17 Jul, Leopardstown 7f), finishing 6½l behind Time Bender. Not a fluke – pedigree has depth (half to Nice Spirit; dam 78-rated). Low draw (1) is tricky, but track form in the book makes her a major contender.
Saxon Grace – Promising
Fourth at Sligo (6 Aug), keeping on despite a blocked passage. Cheap buy but bred to improve over 7f+, being by Saxon Warrior. The more gallop they go, the stronger she’ll be. One to note for progress.
Divelment – Proven ability
Fourth then third at Roscommon; ability clear but perhaps flattered first time (when beating a horse who reversed form decisively). Profile suggests solid rather than progressive, but experience could count in a maiden like this. Wide draw (10) isn’t a plus.
Maker’s Mark – Exposed but competitive
Three runs, best when fourth at Bellewstown (3 Jul, RPR 79). Genuine but lacks a turn of foot. Nursery type long-term, but ability is there to grab a place.
Interesting Outsiders:
- Wipeawayyourtears – Seventh at Gowran, kept on late from wide draw; could be a sneaky improver if pace is generous.
- Pliny – Ninth at Sligo but hampered; needs forgiveness, Colin Keane rides, which adds interest.
- Eleven A – Debut; from Calyx’s first crop, with a strong Juddmonte family. Bred to be better than this grade. Market check essential.
- Katalpa / Castelluccia / Solomon Islands / L L Koulsty – Cheap buys with limited immediate appeal, but could improve with racing.
Runner Scores & Suitability:
- Chapel Lane: 8.5/10 – Strong debut, bred to improve, track should suit.
- Princess Rosie: 8/10 – Course form, progressive filly, but low draw could trap her.
- Saxon Grace: 7.5/10 – Strong finishing profile, scope for more.
- Divelment: 7/10 – Honest, but ceiling might be limited.
- Maker’s Mark: 6.5/10 – Exposed but capable of running into places.
- Wipeawayyourtears: 6.5/10 – Late finisher, could nick a place if pace strong.
- Pliny: 6/10 – Forgive last run, strong jockey booking a plus.
- Eleven A: 6/10 – Debutant, respected on pedigree.
- Others: 5/10 or lower – Need marked improvement.
Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for newcomers (Eleven A, L L Koulsty, Katalpa, Solomon Islands).
Private Tissue Estimate (Guide Odds):
- Chapel Lane – 3/1
- Princess Rosie – 9/2
- Saxon Grace – 5/1
- Divelment – 6/1
- Maker’s Mark – 10/1
- Wipeawayyourtears – 12/1
- Pliny – 14/1
- Eleven A – 16/1
- Others – 20/1+
Summary & Smart Play:
This looks a winnable Auction Series maiden without a standout star. The debut of Chapel Lane stands out – he shaped like the best horse at Navan and should step forward over 7f. Princess Rosie has course form in the book and looks the main danger. Saxon Grace appeals as a value outsider, sure to improve with racing.
Smart Play:
- Win bet: Chapel Lane
- Each-way saver: Saxon Grace (if 8+ runners on the day)
Leave a comment