Pace Angles: A number of prominent racers line up here, notably Ajp Kingdom, Almazhar Garde, Tiger Orchid and Salley Gardens, with My Gift To You often racing handily. Expect a solid gallop throughout.
Draw Angles: Not relevant in this chase contest.
Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders + Trends
Strongest Contenders
- Tiger Orchid – Proven (8/10): Bounced back to form under ideal conditions when just touched off by My Gift To You latest. Back down in grade, blinkers retained, and 3x C&D winner (including this race two years ago). Ideally suited by setup and still fairly treated on old form.
- Ajp Kingdom – Proven (7/10): Dual C&D scorer who has been competitive off similar marks. Forgive last effort – shaped like the trip was short enough, and he looks much happier at this kind of stamina test.
- My Gift To You – Progressive (7/10): Consistent and versatile. Has found improvement in a visor and keeps Alex Chadwick’s 3lb claim. Beat Tiger Orchid latest and remains on the upgrade, but this revised mark demands another step forward.
Main Dangers
- Deep Purple – Promising (7/10): Early in his chasing career but shaped with encouragement on debut behind Tiger Orchid and My Gift To You. Likely to improve again, especially if jumping better and travelling with less keenness.
- Salley Gardens – Progressive (6/10): Back from a break and best on this sound surface. Has 2 wins over C&D and retains upside as a chaser, though his jumping has needed tidying.
Interesting Outsiders
- Kilmurry JJ – Interesting (6/10): Yet to score in Class 4 but came from Ireland on a feasible mark. Recent runs hint he’s capable of exploiting this lowly rating, especially if the return to a longer trip helps.
- The Bold Thady – Interesting (5/10): Stays well, some fair efforts off slightly higher marks, but temperament doubts remain. Would need to travel smoothly into contention.
- Almazhar Garde – Exposed (5/10): In and out, but can pop up under right conditions. Ran respectably last time and loves summer ground, yet career strike rate of 2/48 tempers enthusiasm.
Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis
- Tiger Orchid: 8/10 – Strong C&D record, ideal conditions, looks primed.
- Ajp Kingdom: 7/10 – Course form solid, better ground/trip help.
- My Gift To You: 7/10 – In top form, consistent, visor key again.
- Deep Purple: 7/10 – Unexposed over fences, more to come.
- Salley Gardens: 6/10 – Can figure if jumping holds up.
- Kilmurry JJ: 6/10 – Feasible mark, return to trip a plus.
- The Bold Thady: 5/10 – Capable, but risky and quirky.
- Almazhar Garde: 5/10 – Exposed, often thereabouts.
- Jerrash: 4/10 – Disappointing recent efforts.
- Atlanta Brave: 4/10 – Lost way, risky.
- Lahinch Wave: 4/10 – Unproven at the trip and class.
- Reforme: 3/10 – Lightly raced, stamina not guaranteed.
Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.
Each-Way Angles
(13 runners) – Each-way terms apply.
- Kilmurry JJ and Salley Gardens appeal at longer odds as reliable stayers with profiles suggesting they are well-handicapped for this type of summer contest.
Private Tissue Estimate
- Tiger Orchid – 3/1
- My Gift To You – 9/2
- Ajp Kingdom – 5/1
- Deep Purple – 6/1
- Salley Gardens – 8/1
- Almazhar Garde – 10/1
- Kilmurry JJ – 12/1
- The Bold Thady – 14/1
- Jerrash – 20/1
- Atlanta Brave – 25/1
- Lahinch Wave – 33/1
- Reforme – 40/1
Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.
Summary + Smart Play
This looks a competitive summer staying chase, with a reliable pace expected and several course specialists re-opposing from a recent solid C&D contest. The form from that race stands up well, and there’s little reason to desert the principals.
Smart Play:
- Win: Tiger Orchid – Back to form, 3x C&D winner, and handicapped to strike.
- Each-Way Saver: Kilmurry JJ – Potential improver back over a trip with form hints from Ireland.
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