Race Conditions, Likely Pace & Draw Angles

A Class 5 1m2f AW handicap restricted to amateur riders. The weight structure is compressed with 11st+ carried by all runners.

Pace: Several who like to race handily (Palazzo Persico, Meadram, Harswell Duke) but no guaranteed front-runner, so likely an even pace. In amateur races, pace can be less predictable – false gallops are possible.
Draw bias: Over 1m2f at Chelmsford, low to middle draws have an advantage, as the short run to the first bend can cause wide runners to be trapped.

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Strongest Contenders & Main Dangers

Meadram – Proven / Course Specialist

Two-time C&D winner under this rider (Alice Tregoning) in amateur races. Handles Chelmsford particularly well, and shaped better than the bare result last time when forced wide off a slow pace. Mark workable, ideal setup.

Brunello Breeze – Proven AW performer

Three AW wins (all at Newcastle) and thrives under Patrick Millman in amateurs. Can be slow away but strong finisher when pace is fair. Not as effective on turf, but AW record reads well. Danger if breaking on terms.

Extrication – Fair / Exposed

Multiple solid runs in Class 4/5 handicaps, including close fourth over this C&D last October. Often finds one or two too strong, but competitive off this mark if race goes to closers. Drawn 3, which helps.

Palazzo Persico – Inconsistent but has AW form

Two C&D wins previously. Has struggled for consistency, but often runs better at this venue. Needs to bounce back after poor latest run, but amateur rider races can bring revival.

Fihrayn – Longstanding maiden (0-20)

Well treated on some runs and often in the mix, but finding it hard to win. Likely place candidate at best.

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Interesting Outsiders

• Harswell Duke – Well handicapped on best form but losing run continues; AW a question mark.
• Apodictique – Ex-French mare, interesting recruit, shaped with promise at Chepstow for new yard. Market check needed.

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Runner Scores & Suitability

• Meadram: 8.5/10 – C&D record strong, best amateur profile.
• Brunello Breeze: 8/10 – Strong AW record, danger if pace fair.
• Extrication: 7.5/10 – Consistent, well drawn, but wins scarce.
• Palazzo Persico: 7/10 – C&D scorer, inconsistent.
• Fihrayn: 6.5/10 – Often placed, hard to win with.
• Harswell Duke: 6/10 – Capable but unreliable.
• Apodictique: 6/10 – Unexposed UK runner, market check.

Keep an eye on the market for Apodictique (new yard, first AW run) and for big drifts on veterans like Harswell Duke.

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Private Tissue Estimate (Guide Odds)

• Meadram – 3/1
• Brunello Breeze – 7/2
• Extrication – 5/1
• Palazzo Persico – 6/1
• Fihrayn – 7/1
• Apodictique – 10/1
• Harswell Duke – 12/1

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Summary & Smart Play

This looks a race where course form is key. Meadram has shown his best at Chelmsford in these amateur events and remains well in. Brunello Breeze brings the most consistent AW profile and is a big player if the pace is solid. Extrication is a danger with a handy draw but often finds one too strong.

Smart Play:

• Win bet: Meadram
• Saver / EW: Brunello Breeze (if 3 places offered)