5.37 Killarney – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Hurdle (2m6f180y, Good)

·

Pace Angles:
This is likely to be run at an even to strong pace. Kilbuny Supersonic has made the running previously and may go forward again. Kamikaz Du Plessis and Emily Love typically race close to the pace or press leaders, suggesting a solid gallop is likely.
Draw Angles:
Not relevant under NH conditions.


Strongest Contenders, Main Dangers, Interesting Outsiders

Kamikaz Du Plessis (Gordon Elliott)Proven
Comes here seeking a fourth win from five starts and remains a solid type. Back up to 2m6f after a creditable third at Galway over slightly shorter, he should appreciate this trip more. His Wexford and Downpatrick wins were decisive and on similar ground. Has proven stamina and form in novice hurdles and appears tactically versatile. RPR of 139 is the strongest in the field and Timeform comments back further improvement. Big player, though now carries a 10lb penalty.

Emily Love (Gordon Elliott)Progressive
Has rattled off four wins in succession before a solid third at Galway when dropped in trip. The Killarney win over this sort of trip was decisive and came in a stronger race. Carries a 7lb penalty here, but her profile remains upwardly mobile, and good ground suits. Versatile in terms of distance and ground, and she’s tactically uncomplicated. Timeform comments highlight attitude and adaptability.

Keep Up (Willie Mullins)Promising
The least exposed of the main trio, winning both a bumper and a maiden hurdle on her first two starts. Ran creditably when fourth in the same Galway novice hurdle as Kamikaz Du Plessis, only 2 lengths behind. Raced off 10-4 there and gets a handy 6lb from that rival again. She travelled well and should improve further with Paul Townend now taking over. Remains open to plenty of progress.

Kilbuny Supersonic (Richard O’Hara)Interesting Outsider
Showed good promise in her Wexford maiden win but looked held behind Emily Love at Killarney. A return to a smaller field helped at Downpatrick, though she was no match for the winner. She’s best in front but will face pace pressure here. Pedigree and point form suggest she may eventually prefer fences. Her best RPR of 137 puts her in the mix on figures, but she needs more to beat the top trio.


Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

  • Kamikaz Du Plessis: 9/10 – Very well suited to trip and ground; adaptable and race-fit. Penalty makes life tougher but class angle.
  • Emily Love: 8.5/10 – Ground, trip, and tactical profile all ideal. Continues to improve and resilient type.
  • Keep Up: 8/10 – Lightly raced and very promising. Gets weight from main rivals and sure to progress again.
  • Kilbuny Supersonic: 6.5/10 – Can lead, but may face pressure. Outclassed at Killarney by Emily Love. More needed.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form hurdlers returning quickly; they can be hot.


Private Tissue Estimate (Pro Forecast Odds)

  • Kamikaz Du Plessis – 2/1
  • Emily Love – 11/4
  • Keep Up – 3/1
  • Kilbuny Supersonic – 10/1
  • Others – 25/1+

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.


Summary + Professional Punter View

This novice hurdle revolves around three upwardly mobile types, each with a compelling case. Kamikaz Du Plessis sets the standard on RPR and has proven form at the trip. Emily Love is thriving and looks set to run another bold race, but has to concede weight. Keep Up is the fly in the ointment: still learning, but tactically well-placed and receives weight from the principals.


Smart Play

  • Win Selection: Kamikaz Du Plessis – The form is strong, and he returns to his ideal trip. Solid yard form.
  • Each-Way Saver: Not applicable (only four runners).

Leave a comment

Get updates

From art exploration to the latest archeological findings, all here in our weekly newsletter.

Subscribe