Pace Angles + Draw Angles

This race has a blend of prominent racers and hold-up types, but no clear, committed front-runner. Pace appears even to tactical, with potential for a modest tempo unless one of the low-drawn runners presses forward. Draw data on Newcastle’s Tapeta over this trip suggests a slight advantage to middle-low stalls, though it’s marginal given the long run to the bend.

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Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders

• Gran Descans (Proven/Promising): Progressive Frankel colt who won two steadily run novice events over 1m4f last month. Pedigree (Frankel x Dansili dam) and sectional merit indicate he will improve for a stronger pace. Handles the surface and distance well. Lightly raced and unexposed. Up in class but could be better than a handicapper.
• Ivatt (Promising): Another progressive 3yo. Bred to stay well, shaped with promise over 1m4f at Kempton behind a well-treated winner and has run respectably in a strong Class 2. Likely still ahead of his mark. Inside draw ideal for a strong-travelling type who needs cover.
• King’s Scholar (Progressive): Built a solid profile this season with 2 wins and multiple efforts suggesting further progress. Slight concern about effectiveness on Tapeta, but his sectionals and running style suit today’s race shape. Could be underestimated.
• Great Bedwyn (Proven): Seasoned and competitive in higher grades. Ran solidly over 1m4f in stronger company; 1lb above last winning mark. No AW form but profile suggests he’ll handle it. Needs a strong gallop.
• Circus Of Rome (Progressive): Won nicely when stepped up to this trip. Shaping like he’ll continue improving, especially granted a pace to chase. Wide draw is a concern for a 3yo in this deeper field.
• Barenboim (Interesting Outsider): Sliding down the weights, shaped well in an unsuitable race last time. Can go well if there’s pace on, though best form is on turf. Needs things to fall perfectly.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

• Gran Descans: 9/10 – Unexposed and proven at trip; strong staying pedigree. Well suited.
• Ivatt: 8.5/10 – Bred to improve further at the trip; tapeta debut but likely suited.
• King’s Scholar: 8/10 – Consistent, progressive and well-treated if AW suits.
• Great Bedwyn: 7.5/10 – Reliable and handles the trip; slight concern on surface switch.
• Circus Of Rome: 7.5/10 – Improving, but wide draw and strength of opposition a query.
• Barenboim: 7/10 – Back class and sliding mark; suited by even pace if he travels well.
• Ribble Vibe: 6.5/10 – Lightly raced and improved last time; still something to prove.
• Per Contra: 6.5/10 – Consistent but looks vulnerable from this mark.
• Midnight Lion: 6/10 – Solid C&D record but exposed and may be handicapped out of it.
• Flickering Halo: 6/10 – Last win here, running well, but ground-dependent and trip may stretch.
• Bulldog Spirit: 5.5/10 – Reliable in lower grades; opposable in this company.
• Peaky Blinder: 5.5/10 – Unexposed but little depth to form. Likely needs more time.
• Freddy Robinson: 5/10 – Inconsistent, may be best at a slightly shorter trip.
• Cascade Hall: 4.5/10 – Well exposed and looks vulnerable against improvers.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.

Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles (14 runners)

• Barenboim – Capable of out-running odds if strong pace materialises.
• Circus Of Rome – 3yo getting weight; if overcoming draw, he can stay on strongly.
• King’s Scholar – Reliable and capable of hitting the frame if AW suits.

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Private Tissue Estimate (Fair Odds)

• Gran Descans – 4/1
• Ivatt – 11/2
• King’s Scholar – 6/1
• Great Bedwyn – 13/2
• Circus Of Rome – 8/1
• Barenboim – 10/1
• Ribble Vibe – 14/1
• Per Contra – 14/1
• Midnight Lion – 16/1
• Flickering Halo – 16/1
• Bulldog Spirit – 20/1
• Peaky Blinder – 20/1
• Freddy Robinson – 25/1
• Cascade Hall – 33/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

This is a deep handicap with a split between proven handicappers and unexposed improvers. The 3yos look to have a clear edge at the weights and likely upside. The shape of the race – likely even pace – will favour strong travellers with stamina.

Smart Play

• Win Bet: Gran Descans – Upwardly mobile Frankel colt, this test will suit better than novice events.
• Each-Way Saver: King’s Scholar – Solid performer, pace adaptable, and consistent enough to figure.

Expect one of the lightly raced 3yos to step forward again and prove a cut above this grade.