Pace Angles + Draw Angles:
This is a competitive 16-runner handicap likely to be run at a strong to even pace. Front-runners include Savvy Kingdom, Notimeforchitchat, and Zoffandia, with several others racing close up or pressing the pace. Draw bias at Kempton over a mile is historically modest but high draws can struggle when pace pressure is intense, especially for hold-up types.
Draw edge leans to middle-low, with Rogue Encore (14), Rey De La Batalla (13), and Notimeforchitchat (12) slightly compromised tactically from wider slots unless breaking sharply.
Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders:
Rogue Encore – Proven & progressive. Solid AW performer with a strong C&D profile. Just touched off last time in a race that worked out well. Gets back to ideal conditions with Luke Morris retained. Wide draw not ideal, but he travels strongly and is peaking at the right time. (Score: 8/10)
Sheriff’s Court – Progressive 4yo with a smart win at Carlisle and consistent AW efforts. Returns to Tapeta and looks to be still on the up, especially under a 7lb claimer. Likely to get a good stalking trip. (8/10)
Run With It – Promising 3yo with form tied to Dubai Beach. AW win at Wolverhampton was backed up with strong sectionals and late energy efficiency. Drawn well in 3, improving, and unexposed. (8/10)
Dragon Icon – Unreliable but capable. Patchy profile but placed off higher marks and has a touch of class at this level. Must settle better. Tactically well drawn and gets De Sousa. (7/10)
Notimeforchitchat – Progressive since the application of blinkers, AW form is 3-2-1 including a tidy win here. Last effort was poor but came on turf. Big chance if back on song despite wide draw. (7/10)
Rhapsody – Promising but unproven in handicaps. Class dropper from listed races and bred to stay 1m+. Visually impressive debut winner on turf but must prove herself on AW. Could go either way. (6/10)
Savvy Kingdom – Capable but inconsistent. Strong sectional figure when winning at Newcastle and lightly raced for age. Peak AW runs competitive here but no margin for error. (6/10)
Rey De La Batalla – Track winner, comes alive at Kempton and form ties with others here. Deep closer with potential pace to run at, but wide draw and inconsistency are concerns. (6/10)
Sierra Blanca – Capable but regressive. Useful form for Ballydoyle but poor strike-rate in handicaps. Better effort in blinkers at Haydock last year, needs to show that spark. (5/10)
Interesting Outsider – Zoffandia – Unexposed and bouncing back. C&D winner from earlier this year, hinted at return to form latest. One to note at a price from close to the pace. (6/10)
Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:
- Rogue Encore: 8/10 – Well-suited to surface/trip, drawn wide but form strong.
- Sheriff’s Court: 8/10 – Well-handicapped with upward profile; soft ground no issue.
- Run With It: 8/10 – Ideal profile for AW progression; sharp late sectionals.
- Dragon Icon: 7/10 – Draw fine, class dropper, must settle.
- Notimeforchitchat: 7/10 – Peak RPRs on AW, just needs pace to hold up.
- Savvy Kingdom: 6/10 – Needs strong pace, inconsistent turf form.
- Rhapsody: 6/10 – Class angle; unproven but interesting.
- Rey De La Batalla: 6/10 – Draw hurts; likes this C&D.
- Sierra Blanca: 5/10 – Classy in past but regressing.
- Zoffandia: 6/10 – C&D winner, pop-up potential.
- Port Road: 5/10 – C&D form ties in, but always one paced.
- Devious Devan: 4/10 – Suspect profile; maiden still learning.
- He’s A Gentleman: 5/10 – Consistent, AW ok but no secrets.
- Niminy Piminy: 5/10 – Promising but stamina query.
- Sierra Blanca: 5/10 – Needs everything to fall right.
- Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
- Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.
Each-Way Angles (16 Runners):
- Zoffandia (6/10) – Bounce-back candidate, former C&D winner.
- Rey De La Batalla (6/10) – Dual C&D winner, underestimated.
- Run With It (8/10) – Unexposed 3yo who should run well from the draw.
Private Tissue Estimate:
- Rogue Encore – 9/2
- Run With It – 11/2
- Sheriff’s Court – 6/1
- Dragon Icon – 8/1
- Notimeforchitchat – 8/1
- Zoffandia – 12/1
- Rey De La Batalla – 14/1
- Rhapsody – 14/1
- Savvy Kingdom – 16/1
- Others 20/1+
Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.
Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play):
This is a strong renewal of the London Mile Qualifier, likely run at a solid pace. Several hold-up types need luck, and those tracking from midfield could be best placed.
Smart Play:
- Win: Rogue Encore – Peaking at the right time, thrives under today’s conditions, and has the form edge.
- Each-Way Saver: Run With It – Promising and tactically well drawn; potential for further improvement on the AW.
A clean shape, with several form lines tying in, and the top three selections all offer different tactical profiles, making for a strong betting heat.
Leave a comment