Race Conditions + Pace Angles + Draw Angles:
Class 5 handicap over 7f on Kempton’s standard to slow polytrack. The 3yo-only division includes exposed winners and recent handicap debutants. Likely pace comes from Soldiers Star, Me Tarzan, and Token Gesture, suggesting an honest-to-strong gallop. The inside draws (1–5) should be favoured, as typical of Kempton over this trip, especially for forward-goers. Duke Orsino and Happy To Fly benefit draw-wise.

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Strongest Contenders, Main Dangers & Interesting Outsiders

Strongest Contenders:

• I’m Workin On It – Promising
  Won C&D handicap on debut with a smooth move from off the pace, strongly suggesting plenty more to come. Wind op beforehand and only 4 career runs. Likely improver and tactically versatile. Penalised but manner of win was clear signal of more in hand.
• Token Gesture – Proven
  Reliable C&D performer who returned with a solid second behind the selection. That run confirmed he goes well at Kempton and can repeat that form. Trainer’s runners can improve with racing.
• Happy To Fly – Progressive
  Lightly raced, with clear signs of promise. AW debut behind Yuvraaj was solid, and the Leicester fourth last time came after racing prominently into a stiff headwind. Return to the AW and switch to stronger handling with Harry Davies a positive.

Main Dangers:

• Valsharah – Exposed but Effective
  13 starts without a win but rarely runs poorly and was second here last time behind a thriving rival. Best figures have come at Kempton; likely to be thereabouts again if not asked to do too much early.
• Me Tarzan – Promising at Class 6
  Won two handicaps decisively in visors before respectable efforts in Class 5. Might have hit ceiling off current mark but has pace and should sit handy from low draw. 7f suits well.

Interesting Outsiders:

• Duke Orsino – Unexposed
  Shaped well at Kempton in December and now enters handicaps off 64. Lightly raced and pedigree (by No Nay Never) offers potential upside. Has drawn stall 1 and may go forward.
• Tortoiseshell – Possible Improver
  Lightly raced filly, shaping better dropped in trip at Chepstow on first run for new yard. Low weight, drop into 0–70 helps, and trainer in excellent recent form (14-day strike rate: 15%).

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:

• I’m Workin On It: 8/10 – Unexposed, progressive, ideal trip/track, scope for more.
• Token Gesture: 7.5/10 – Consistent, well-drawn, acts here.
• Happy To Fly: 7.5/10 – Improving, decent Kempton run, nicely drawn.
• Valsharah: 7/10 – Very consistent, lacks winning gear but handles Kempton.
• Me Tarzan: 6.5/10 – Winner at lower grade, pacey and well-drawn.
• Duke Orsino: 6/10 – Handicap debut; nice profile, watch market.
• Tortoiseshell: 6/10 – New yard could improve her; well-handicapped.
• Soldiers Star: 5.5/10 – AW winner but regressive profile, risky.
• Zolder: 5/10 – Lacks finishing kick; handicap debut but modest depth.
• Others: 4/10 or lower – Difficult to recommend without improvement.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles (11 runners):

• Duke Orsino could offer each-way appeal on handicap debut from stall 1.
• Tortoiseshell also has the profile of a potential improver off bottom weight for a hot yard.

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Private Tissue Estimate:

• I’m Workin On It – 3/1
• Token Gesture – 4/1
• Happy To Fly – 9/2
• Valsharah – 6/1
• Me Tarzan – 8/1
• Duke Orsino – 10/1
• Tortoiseshell – 12/1
• Soldiers Star – 14/1
• Others – 20/1+

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View

The race features several exposed, consistent types and a few potential improvers, notably from strong stables. I’m Workin On It was visually impressive when winning over C&D last time and looks likely to defy a penalty with further progress. Token Gesture rates a solid benchmark, while Happy To Fly appeals as a lightly raced improver returning to her most promising surface.

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Smart Play

• Win Selection: I’m Workin On It – strong C&D win, progressive profile, scope to defy penalty.
• Each-Way Saver: Duke Orsino – unexposed, well drawn, potential improver on handicap debut.